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Drew Brees - FD 9100 DK 8300 DD 15900 DFSTR
We listed Brees as a good bounce back candidate in our week 15 picks article, and he came through very nicely - paying nearly 3x his FanDuel price on 375 yards passing with three scores. What happened? Nothing, really. And that's what's so exciting. All of the analysts throwing dirt on Drew Brees' career seem to be willfully ignoring that for whatever perceived struggles he's had, he's still posted the 3rd highest completion percentage of his career. And that's with a huge injury to his most dynamic receiver (Cooks), and chronic ailments to his hall of fame tight end. Brees has "been right" all season, and when he's right, he can put up numbers in a hurry. I say: save $1,000, invest in Brees the league's WORST passing defense in Atlanta, and call it a day.
Matthew Stafford - FD 8200 DK 7000 DD 13850 DFSTR
This is going to be tough for a lot of people to pull the trigger on after what they saw against the Vikings last week, but let me make the case for you. Obviously, this is nothing like a cash game play, but for GPPs? I'm intrigued. The Bears have allowed the 2nd most yards through the air this season, and they've been especially awful of late. The defense has allowed 30 or more points in each of its last three games. As for Stafford - the offensive line has been struggling to protect him recently, but the Bears (who have the 23rd most sacks this season) have a far less scary pass rush than the Vikings (9th in total sacks this season). There's upside here - that's all I'm saying.
Matt Ryan - FD 8700 DK 7400 DD 15150 DFSTR
Ryan is a lot like Brees at this point in the season, in that early season troubles have really clouded the public perception of him and his daily fantasy football season prices. Well, our projection system doesn't buy it. In his last three weeks he's put up at least 300 yards and 2 touch downs, and he was missing his top receiver in his last (and arguably best) game. With Julio Jones likely to return for week 16, Ryan could absolutely put up a terrific game against the league's sixth most generous passing defense.
A note on Luck and Rodgers: Don't let recency bias cloud your judgment of these guys. Everyone in football has a bad game from time to time, and these guys still both have a ton of weapons and terrific match-ups this week. I'd be a little more cautious with Luck if TY Hilton doesn't play, but I'm absolutely all-in on Rodgers. They're expensive, but if you like your guys elsewhere, I think they both provide a lot of safety.
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Le'Veon Bell - FD 9700 DK 9800 DD 18300 DFSTR
While our projection system prefers other guys on a points per dollar basis, it feels weird to lead with anything other than the safest running back in fantasy football. In the last 4 weeks, Le'Veon Bell has averaged 33.9 FanDuel points per game. Among RBs, only Tre Mason has a SINGLE GAME higher than Bell's average. His lowest touches during that time were last game - 25. He gets the ball all over the field, on any down, and at the goal line. The Chiefs have allowed the 5th most running yards this season. So, yeah.
Some Cowboys Running Back
Either Lance Dunbar or Joseph Randle - stay tuned for pricing as the week progresses. But with Murray out, one of these two guys is going to get a ton of carries at a ridiculous price. Unlike a lot of backups, we've seen what the Dallas O-line can do, and either of them should be able to plug in terrifically against the Colts.
C.J. Anderson - FD 7800 DK 6900 DD 13150 DFSTR
It's back to back games with less than 3 YPC for Anderson, which isn't a terrific sign. So why the high ranking by our projection system? Opportunity. The Broncos are still using him a ton - 53 touches in the last 2 weeks - and Anderson is getting plenty of red zone work. His last game looks a lot better if Manning isn't sick and he's passing the ball effectively, and if Anderson doesn't get a touchdown called back. And for as good as Cinci's D looked against the Browns, let's not forget what the Browns' QB play was like. There may never be a greater difference in overall QB talent from the Bengals' week 15 to week 16 opponents, and they are in for a shock. Even with a good week, the Bengals' run D is still the 8th worst in the league in terms of giving up yards. I'm smelling a huge bounceback for CJ and the Denver running game.
Joique Bell - FD 7300 DK 6000 DD 10550 DFSTR
No luck for the Junior Bell against the Vikings, though he did put up over 100 yards on 19 touches. Bell's touches were somewhat limited due to a very efficient game by Bridgewater and the Vikings, and an overall lack of possessions in this game. That probably won't repeat itself against the Bears. I expect the Lions' defense to take care of the Bears' offense, and for Bell and the running game to get a lot of opportunity to pound the ball. Reggie Bush's reappearance has clearly made no difference to Bell's usage at all, and I think Bell makes for a very affordable and relatively high upside RB play on all sites
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Odell Beckham Jr. - FD 9000 DK 9000 DD 15400 DFSTR
Holy moly. I don't know if I've been more enamored with a rookie WR since I first saw Randy Moss seamlessly glide past opposing secondaries. And I don't think Eli has, either. Beckham had 15 targets to the rest of the Giants' receivers' 19. He saw nearly all of their end zone looks, and obviously caught all three of their touchdowns. While his price is starting to head in the direction that he HAS to do a ton to pay it off, I don't know that you can call any receiver as safe as him at this period in time. It's been 2 months since he had a single digit fantasy point day, and he's had two 30 point monsters in that time. I love him against the Rams for all purposes.
Vincent Jackson - FD 6700 DK 5600 DD 9450 DFSTR
Let's start with the good. Vincent Jackson has received 27 targets in the last two weeks, and he plays for a team that almost always finds itself needing to pass. He hauled in 229 yards on those targets, and is the first read on many Bucs' passing plays. And so affordable! At just $6,700 on FanDuel, he's priced in the same neighborhood as far more speculative plays. The bad? The end zone issues. The Bucs seem to prefer Mike Evans when things get close, and it has severely limited VJ's upside. But do they really? Jackson actually leads the team with 14 red zone targets this year. While he's had some trouble converting targets to receptions, he's been extremely unlikely. That could turn on a dime, and in a game where they should be trailing the Packers early, this could be the week.
Alshon Jeffery - FD 8500 DK 8000 DD 12800 DFSTR
With Marshall out, I expected Jeffery to get more targets than he did. But! Keenan Lewis has presented opposing number 1s problems all season, so Cutler was a little more sparing in targeting Alshon than usual. Jeffery had no trouble drawing targets against Detroit on their Thanksgiving meet-up. His 13 targets were the 2nd most he's drawn all year. And he converted those into 9 catches for 73 yards and 2 scores. I think we see a huge spike in targets and the production that follows.
Calvin Johnson - FD 9200 DK 8700 DD 13800 DFSTR
It feels kind of stupid to recommend all the highest priced guys - but I promise that Johnson will be the last guy in this tier that I recommend. Megatron was shadowed by shut-down corner Xavier Rhodes in week 15, and while that shouldn't totally matter to a guy with Johnson's gifts, it just does some times. Chicago has no secondary talent like Rhodes, and has given up the league's 2nd highest yardage total. I love Johnson for a monster performance, here.
Kenny Stills - FD 6100 DK 5700 DD 9250 DFSTR
Stills has become something of a forgotten man after his week 13 explosion against the Steelers. And with the Saints, Brees will spread it around enough to make a man crazy. But the price has dipped back to the point where Stills is an incredible upside play - ESPECIALLY against a Falcons team that has allowed the highest total yards per game by 20 full yards over the 2nd worst team. I think there will be targets to spare for Saints receivers in this one, and Stills sees a nice bounceback.
Roddy White - FD 7300 DK 6600 DD 11000 DFSTR
If Jones plays, I love White in this match-up. The aforementioned Keenan Lewis has done a very nice job against #1 receivers this season, but #2 receivers have had their way with the Saints. White should see a ton of targets if Jones is in there, and could convert them to very high upside production on these prices. If Julio doesn't play, slide Harry Douglas into this role and call it a day.
Our projection system is frankly close on a lot of guys this week - take a free 3 day trial and take a look for yourself!
Martellus Bennett - FD 6200 DK 5700 DD 11150 DFSTR
I don't have a great explanation for what happened against the Saints on Monday night. I just don't, okay? I'm literally stunned that Bennett got just 6 targets, and I personally think he'll double that in week 16 in this rematch with Detroit. On Thanksgiving Day, Bennett hauled in 8 catches for 109 yards. And that was with Marshall siphoning some targets. I think a big day is in store, here.
Rob Gronkowski - FD 7800 DK 7000 DD 14050 DFSTR
Gronk had an off game against the Dolphins, and still managed 96 yards and a touch down. He's just such an integral part of the Pats offense that he almost can't help but get in the end zone. He has 53 touch downs in 62 career games. That's totally ridiculous. And I am fairly certain he'll get plenty of time to flex and kiss his biceps against the Jets in week 16. So why do I prefer Bennett? As prices have inflated over the season, I'd prefer to take a chance on Bennett and spend up elsewhere. I couldn't blame you for playing Gronk, though, and he's really a 1a to Bennett's 1.
Greg Olsen - FD 6900 DK 6000 DD 11450 DFSTR
Olsen seems like the only Panthers ball-catcher who is going to get his regardless of who is throwing it. The hulking tight end has caught 10 balls in each of the last two weeks, and is arguably the safest tight end on the board.
Just a strategy note on kickers, since I figure I'll share what's working well for me this season.
I've been taking kickers against teams that don't have spectacular defenses in decent weather conditions. I don't look at the kicker's individual "skill" at all, just opportunity. Typically kicker will be the very last spot I fill, and while there are situations I'll avoid (I wouldn't play kickers against Seattle, for instance, or any team that's a 6.5 point or more underdog), I think you can justify playing just about any other kicker in a GPP format especially. Don't sweat this too much - just pick a guy that fits in with the rest of what you want to do and go from there.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills lead the NFL in sacks this season, and the Raiders have an historically bad offense. The combination? A pretty darned nice daily fantasy match-up. One thing to note, though, if you're hunting huge upside: Oakland, in spite of having to pass a ton to play catch-up, has allowed the 9th fewest sacks this season. This shouldn't matter too much to Buffalo's front 7, and I'll play them in every format. But I thought you needed to know.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers have put up some ridiculous fantasy totals against mediocre/bad offenses this year, and a lot of that has to do with their offense. When the going is good, the Pack run up the score early, and then know exactly what their opponent needs to do. I really can't imagine Rodgers not storming back after his worst game ever, and this should make the Green Bay defense one of the highest upside ones on the board, if not the safest.
New England Patriots
I almost never recommend the most expensive defenses on the board, but this week is an exception. The main reason is that I don't really like any defenses under $5k on FanDuel, so the prices are a lot closer between teams I do like. Here's the deal. The Jets just got done scratching out 16 points over one of the league's worst defenses in Tennessee. Their two QB options are turnover machines, and their running game is a joke. And the Pats? Well, they've just allowed an average of 16 points per game over their last 4 games to Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Matthew Stafford, and Ryan Tannehill. This is going to be a bloodbath, and the Pats have arguably the highest upside and the highest safety this week. Just pricey is all.
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