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Quick note: There are many, many injury situations that are going to skew things a bit going in. So many guys are game time decisions and whether they play will cascade decisions all the way down. I'm going to do my best here to highlight some of the decisions, but monitoring news up to lineup lock will be particularly important tonight.
Russell Westbrook - FD 10100 DK 11000 DFSTR 8200
Even though Durant may soon be in line for a minutes bump which will hurt Westbrook's top end value, the fact remains that few other players in the league can score as many fantasy points in as little a time as Westbrook. Case in point: he put up 50 fantasy points (FD) in 27 freaking minutes against the Suns last time out. That's an astounding number and there simply aren't many players who can do it. He has a number of components to his game, but one of them that allows him to pile up points is that for a point guard he actually rebounds well and subsequently begins his own fast break. This is invaluable and he controls so much of the action. The Kings aren't bad against opposing point guards, but Westbrook isn't your average one. If Davis doesn't play Westbrook is out system's top overall point scorer and for the money he's the best top end value.
Zach LaVine - FD 5100 DK 5200 DFSTR 3700
Here's to hoping Mo Williams sits out again. Point guard is a very dicey situation after Russell and I'll happily slot in Lavine at the point if he is going to see close to forty minutes of run. That he does very little with the time he spends on the court is concerning, but his price is so low relative to the minutes that I'm willing to wing and prayer it if he's just going to handle the ball the whole time. Not a great matchup, but again, point guard is fraught with peril tonight.
Trey Burke - FD 5700 DK 5400 DFSTR 5200
Woof. See what I mean? He's more a GPP play because he'll pull some epic disappearing acts. But in a world of few choices we are forced to sometimes go with things that feel weird.
Consider Norris Cole and Mario Chalmers if Wade sits.
Tim Hardaway Jr. - FD 4000 DK 4700 DFSTR 3000
Iman Shumpert is out. J.R. Smith's feetsies hurt. And that leaves Hardaway to see the lion's share of minutes out of the two. Honestly even if Smith is back I'd say Hardaway is close to a must start at these prices considering he should stand to see about thirty minutes regardless. Hardaway is a guy who is super dependent on scoring but thankfully he's willing to jack enough shots to keep his floor relatively high. I'm mostly in love with the punt prices of course and he allows a great deal of flexibility on a night where you might really need it.
Dwyane Wade - FD 7600 DK 7200 DFSTR 8000
With Bosh out of the lineup Wade becomes the clear number one scoring option for the Heat. There's a little concern that he might not play, but if he does then Wade is the clear benefactor. This season, when Bosh isn't on the court (small sample of course) Wade has an unreal 47.3 usage rate. That is the highest I've seen that number. I would love him on the volume alone even against a dreadfully slow Brooklyn team who also happen to stink at defending the two.
Tyreke Evans - FD 7500 DK 8600 DFSTR 7400
This is totally dependent on Brow being out. We saw last game that when Davis was off the court, Reke took over. I would consider him a really safe cash game option if Brow were to sit. Keep an eye on this.
J.R. Smith - FD 4800 DK 5000 DFSTR 4700
You can consider playing both he and Hardaway in two shooting guard formats if Smith is in fact back tonight (though the injury is concerning). He and Hardaway (if Smith plays) would both probably see the run and JR is also very cheap. Hate him as a basketball player. Would really like the value.
Shawne Williams - FD 3600 DK 3500 DFSTR 3800
No Bosh. No McRoberts. No problem. Williams figures to slide back into the heavy minutes role he occupied early in the season with McBob shelved. That's great news for your punting needs. Williams is a versatile (if unspectacular) piece who can hit threes, rebound a smidge and throw in a block or two here or there. Again, much like Hardaway, this is all about the price. He is a complete favorite to hit value as long as he creeps towards thirty minutes.
Gordon Hayward - FD 7600 DK 7300 DFSTR 6900
I like with no extenuating circumstances, but I really like him in Favors is out again. Hayward sees a stark usage bump when Favors is off the court. The Pelicans allow an astounding 23% more scoring than league average to opposing small forwards and Hayward's skill set allows a higher floor when his shot isn't falling (which happens more than I'd like to admit). Again, I'd play him either way, but he gets a bigger bump if he's operating without Favors.
Corey Brewer - FD 5500 DK 5800 DFSTR 5200
Shabazz Muhammad - FD 5300 DK 4300 DFSTR 3000
Don't love choosing between them. I think if forced to make a decision I'd opt for Brewer in cash games and Shabazz for some upside in GPPs. Brewer has his 33-35 minutes locked in right now while Muhammed has forced himself into more run by shooting the lights out the last couple of games.
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Ryan Anderson - FD 5400 DK 6200 DFSTR 4600
He's the top play at the position as long as Davis is out. If Brow is back then forget Anderson completely. For a power forward, his value is pretty dependent on his scoring and if his shots from behind the arc are falling. He doesn't rebound like a natural four so take that into mind. Regardless though, if he's going to see around 40 minutes because Davis is sitting then you set it an forget it with Anderson. It's a no brainer.
Amar'e Stoudemire - FD 6200 DK 6000 DFSTR 5400
His price continues to climb in the short term because of the starter's role and the minutes he's been seeing out of the five for the Knicks. Now there's an issue if Dallas runs them out of the building and Amar'e sees his minutes pinched because of it. That's the only thing that gives me a little pause. That and being matched up with Tyson Chandler. But man, he's been great when he's been out there and creeps towards 20/10 if he sees in the mid thirties of minutes.
Consider Serge Ibaka if you get stuck in between with money. Also consider Kris Humphries who still has upside at his prices.
Enes Kanter - FD 5800 DK 6600 DFSTR 5800
Rudy Gobert - FD 4400 DK 5000 DFSTR 3300
Much is theme of today's picks that you'll need to keep an ear to the ground when getting closer to lineup lock. Kanter and Gobert are fantastic plays if Favors sits again and somewhat forgettable if Favors is back. Last game Gobert went for 7/9 with some blocks and steals. The blocks are a real thing and keep his floor higher because he isn't much of a post scorer. Meanwhile Kanter played thirty four minutes and went 10/11/3. Kanter is much more likely to stay in the game if the Jazz are down a big man. Keep an eye out, but if thirty minutes are in the cards then these are guys you get in there without hesitation.
Tyson Chandler - FD 6700 DK 7300 DFSTR 5700
He might abuse Amar'e on the boards and on the pick and roll. If Favors is back and can't play Gobert then I'll probably go Tyson for safety. I think he gets to double digit boards against a slower Stoudemire and might get to the rim a bit more than usual. Needs to avoid a blowout, but without the two guys above I'm starting to dislike the center position tonight.
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View Comments
I wanted to take a minute to thank you guys for this blog. It's extremely well done. I play FBB on Fanduel and I am one of those people who you would refer to as a shark and I can state without doubt that y'all know what you are doing. I must say hardly a day goes by when our lineups aren't extremely similiar. I always check you guys to make sure I haven't missed anything. (even the best of us do). I know you probably already have seen AD back in the lineups, but look to Brad Beal tonight. Home Away/splits, Minn near the bottom vs. SG and he has been hot. just an FYI..
P.S. My LU before reading your blog.
Westbrook
D. Williams
Beal
hardaway JR.
Hayward
Brewer
Amare
Zbo
Mason Plumlee