Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 12/1/14

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Point Guard

Michael Carter-Williams - FD 8300 DK 8000 DFSTR 6800
I like him even more if Wroten is out tonight. As we saw the other night (when he was a top play in the system and I basically ignored it) when Wroten isn’t in the game MCW becomes the focal point and creator on offense. He was a revelation against the Mavericks the other night, doing little bits of everything as the Sixers hung in the game on his way to a triple double. A much better fantasy player than real player, Carter-Williams can have games where it seems like there are two of him on the court. Watching the game against the Mavs, multiple times he grabbed rebounds and then ran the court to either dish for an assist or take it to the hole himself. I’m less worried about the blowout reducing Sixers’ minutes and think he has a high floor considering his contributions across the stat line.

Tony Parker - FD 6600 DK 7200 DFSTR 6600
Look, our system loves him tonight and rightfully so. The matchup is choice, the pace will be quick and he's playing well of late (that last point isn't factored into our projections, it's just nice to know). Of course the issue will be, as it will for all Spurs, is whether he sees a full run. The Spurs could dismantle the Sixers early and that will be the end of Tony. The only reason I'm encouraged about playing him is the price. In a situation where the Spurs are boat-racing Philly Parker probably doesn't need to see a full thirty-five minutes to approach value. He's coming rather cheap. Update: Parker is sitting tonight. If Cory Joseph is starting
he makes the punt play extraordinaire at the minimums

Consider Mo Williams though with him the blowout is a problem going the other way.

Shooting Guard

Danny Green - FD 4700 DK 5000 DFSTR 4500
Manu Ginobili - FD 5200 DK 4900 DFSTR 5500
Always such a tough call with the Spurs, even on short nights. There’s of course a decent shot neither see the requisite amount of minutes. Though I would say Manu is much bigger a dog to get his full run. I could see a scenario, even in a blowout where Green gets enough minutes to pay off his salary. The Sixers have been bad, but at least feisty of late. Though they haven’t been playing teams the caliber of the Spurs. On a night with few options, and considering shooting guard is always a tough fill, getting some money in against the fast-pace, bad defense of Philly is a viable strategy.

J.J. Redick - FD 4100 DK 4100 DFSTR 5100
Jamal Crawford - FD 6100 DK 5600 DFSTR 5900
In much the same situation as the two guys above. Both Redick and Crawford make for value plays at their respective prices. The issue is just how much they stand to see in what could be a game that gets ugly real quick. The Timberwolves are a bad team who've been also decimated by injuries. If the game is a blowout then these dudes don't see the fourth. Again, they offer value at their prices so I don't know how risky it is considering the rest of the landscape.

Small Forward

Corey Brewer - FD 4900 DK 5800 DFSTR 4200
He’s still not totally priced as a starter. And that’s good. Brewer is entrenched as the starting shooting guard (bad for Minny, good for us) and he’s priced like a dude coming off the bench. Granted, the salary has crept up over the short term so we won’t be buying at a discount for too much longer. But get while the getting’s good especially considering a short night doesn’t typically lend itself to many salary cap relief punts.

Gordon Hayward - FD 7600 DK 8100 DFSTR 7000
Hayward’s been playing well of late and gets a solid matchup tonight against the Nuggets. Playing against a lightening quick team like Denver should increase Hayward’s volume, and his ability to contribute in multiple ways always has the floor high. I suspect he will be a bigger cash game start because the price hasn’t topped out yet even with his recent play. These are always the matchups to target considering Utah’s slow pace means guys like Hayward are priced in a way reflecting a certain amount of possessions. Those will increase tonight.

K.J. McDaniels - FD 4500 DK 5400
He pulled the start for Wroten at the two and after his game against the Mavs, it stands to reason he's back out there tonight. He put up a ton of shots in a lot of minutes. Those two things alone have me wanting to buy t punt-ish prices. I'm not pencilling him in for 21-13 like the other night, but a high volume game could be in store again.

Strongly consider Kawhi Leonard but man I'm worried about the minutes

 

Power Forward

Blake Griffin - FD 9100 DK 9800 DFSTR 8900
The Timberwolves are just brutal defending the front court and power forward’s been a particular cause for concern. They can’t keep opposing fours from scoring and they definitely can’t keep them off the glass. Minnesota allows 12% more rebounding than league average to the opponent’s power forward. And Blake’s been Blake of late. He and Paul are executing pick and rolls like clockwork and the pace of this game should mean more possessions. He is my top big money play mostly because I think you can find PG value outside of CP3.

Derrick Favors - FD 6900 DK 7300 DFSTR 7000
I take a very specific approach with Favors. I like to wait, and wait and wait to play him as inevitably his price drops because he's crazy inconsistent. And just when the moment is right: buy, buy, buy. This is one of those situations. The Nuggets are straight up atrocious against opposing power forwards. They allow 18% more scoring and 12% more rebounding from opposing power forwards. On a short slate, I don't see too many reasons to get away from his minutes, price and matchup. Most of my lineups will have Favors and Blake.

Update: Duncan is sitting tonight. If Diaw draws the start
he's an incredible/ must play
Consider Boris Diaw, Kris Humphries and Kenneth Faried as GPP plays

Center

Marcin Gortat - FD 7100 DK 6700 DFSTR 6200
Some things never change and one carry over from the Lebron-less Heat has been Bosh and company’s issues in controlling opposing centers. This season the other teams five has scored 13% more than league average. That’s pretty much the worst in the league and Gortat is the guy who exploits matchups. Wall should be able to get him the ball in the low post. Gortat is one of those mid range guys who can terrorize lesser centers but struggles against the big boys. This is a time to use the guy and his affordable tag.

DeAndre Jordan - FD 6700 DK 7300 DFSTR 6500
Could very well brutalize Gorgui Dieng down low. Our system is very high on DeAndre for the price but I don't see the ultimate upside in the play. I suppose he could grab enough rebounds to pay, but I feel like he's so one-dimensional that his ceiling is pretty low. If you are looking for safe points, he's probably the way to go though.

Consider Enes Kanter in a GPP but his minutes are all over the place.

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