Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 11/30/14

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Because this is such a huge slate, I'll be giving a few more names with a bit less of a writeup.
 

Point Guard

Kyle Lowry - FD 8500 DK 8400 DFSTR 7100
Whenever the Lakers take the court, you want to have exposure going the other way. This is the perfect example. When an efficient (but slow) Raptor team faces a fast-paced and defensively challenged team like the Lakers, getting your hands on the guy controlling the ball is a top priority. There have been plenty of point guard punt plays of late, meaning we haven’t had to pay up too much for the spot. But this is a safety situation. Lowry should see plenty of volume in this one (especially with Derozan out) and if the game can just stay out of total blowout zone heading into the fourth then I have very little doubt that he hits value.

Greivis Vasquez - FD 3700 DK 3500 DFSTR 3900
If you think the fallout from the Derozan injury cascades down to more opportunity for the rest of the guards, then Vasquez is a pretty great play at this price. Seeing in the mid 20's in minutes over the last few has him pretty productive and I honestly think there is a case, on a small slate, to start both he and Lowry at PG tonight.

Mo Williams - FD 5500 DK 4800 DFSTR 4000
He turned in a monster against the Lakers the other night. I don't expect a repeat performance necessarily, but a double/double points and assists game isn't out of the question against a team in Portland that's well below average in defending the point guard position. Williams is a great low-end option with starters minutes seemingly locked in.

 

Shooting Guard

Lou Williams - FD 4900 DK 5000
Stands to see a ton of run now that Derozan is on the shelf. Williams has been one of the better fantasy-points-per-minute guys in the NBA this season and if he cracks the starting lineup or just sees more run because of Derozan's absence then you are basically looking at a must start based on his price. Check out starting lineups ahead of lineup lock, but honestly, I'd be willing to roll the dice because I think he's going to see a ton of minutes and opportunity. Oh, and the Lakers.

Evan Fournier - FD 5000 DK 5200 DFSTR 5000
Fournier's shot attempts have dropped over his last three games, which in turn has dropped his price. The Magic have spent that time getting blown out which has meant less minutes for the guy.

 

Small Forward

Tobias Harris - FD 7200 DK 7000 DFSTR 6700
He, like Fournier, has seen a price stagnation because of the minutes and the injuries. This is a great spot to buy the guy. If he is playing his requisite 35 minutes or so, then you are getting a fantastic price on the guy. Harris can easily crush this price in the right matchup. And the Suns offer a matchup against one of the fastest teams in the league who also allow 10% more scoring than league average to the opposing three. Harris remains in the mid-tier mostly, in my opinion, because of circumstances having little to do with his skill of fantasy production. If this game can stay close he crushes this price.

Nicolas Batum - FD 6500 DK 6400 DFSTR 5800
He's definitely struggled to pay this price on the season. The big reason? He's shooting so far below his career averages. A career 45% FG shooter, Batum is shooting more like 38% this season. That's been a culprit in his overall fantasy production. I don't think it continues for too long. One thing is a near constant in the NBA over the long term and that's how efficiently (or not) a dude shoots. I'd expect to see some regression from Batum over the short term and think we are buying him at a discount because of it.

Consider James Johnson and Gerald Green

 

Power Forward

Amir Johnson - FD 4800 DK 4900 DFSTR 5300
It's very difficult to trust the production. Very difficult. But man he has a great matchup tonight against the Lakers. LA allows an astounding 33% more scoring than league average to opposing power forwards. That's an insane numbers that speaks to the team's complete inability to defend certain positions. Johnson needs to get full run to really crush, but I think he's a value add even on a limited minutes basis simply because the matchup is so choice.

LaMarcus Aldridge - FD 9400 DK 9100 DFSTR 8500
The Timberwolves have struggled to contain opposing big men and tonight should be no different as Aldridge will most likely take full advantage of a young Minnesota squad. Minnesota is below average in every stat you can come up with when it comes to the opposing power forward. Lamarcus will cost of course, but a 20/10 performance at the minimum is completely reasonable.

Zach Randolph - FD 7500 DK 7900
He's rarely going to take you to the stratosphere but I think on a shorter slate, this is a fine price to pay considering the matchup. ZBo's a fairly consistent dude whose big production bumps come when he's rebounding like a madman. The Kings are about league average in keeping opposing power forwards off the boards. Again, this isn't the greatest matchup for the guy, but I also don't think he'll kill you with the floor being fairly high.

Strongly consider Channing Frye

 

Center

Nikola Vucevic - FD 8700 DK 8800 DFSTR 8000
If you catch him on a night when he's scoring then really he's gravy. Vuce is a rebounding machine and those seem to be there almost on a night basis. It's getting the ball in the basket that fluctuates. And when he doesn't score, he doesn't pay mostly because for a center he doesn't throw in enough blocks to keep his floor high enough. But I think the matchup against the Suns should allow him to excel in his two primary phases of the game. They allow worse than league average scoring to centers and get crushed on the boards. Opposing centers rebound 16% more than league average against the Suns. He's my cash game play tonight.

Jordan Hill - FD 6500 DK 6600 DFSTR 6400
Gorgui Dieng - FD 6000 DK 6700 DFSTR 5000
These are two guys I'll throw out in GPPs simply because at their prices, on the right night, they can pay off in big ways. I just don't love either of their matchups enough to consider them safe.

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