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Drew Brees
Peyton Manning
Andrew Luck
I know it’s a little chalk-y to throw these three guys out there (Brees aside I suppose) but there is something to be said for playing the best arms in pass-heavy offenses. Why get away from what works? Why get cute? ScoreStreak lends itself to chalk plays. It’s what makes you money in this format. In fact, I would say that by and large rolling with the very best at a particular position in a particular category is such a positive expectation, that getting away from it my cost you profit. Brees is a guy our system has been on for awhile who seemed to be running bad in the touchdown department. His completion rate, and number of passing attempts per game just seemed to suggest that the touchdowns would come. They did (and the yards as well) against the Ravens on Monday night.
As far as Manning and Luck are concerned, they just throw so much in the red zone that the touchdown expectations will just always be there on a week-to-week basis. When you provide that much opportunity down and in the TDs will come at a rate that puts them near the top of the leader board every single week.
Le’Veon Bell
For me, Bell is the easy choice to top the all-purpose yards this week. So many factors are lining up for him to pile of the production. He's a cog in the Steeler offense in that they will feed him the ball twenty times in the ground game as well as 7-8 targets per game in the passing game. The Saints are in the bottom third of the league defending both the pass and the run. That bodes well for the kind of volume Bell will need to hit the highest mark. Add in that the Saints can score enough to keep the game lively and moving. This is a great spot for Bell and I suspect he'll be featured in ScoreStreak contests.
Rashad Jennings
The Jaguars are just awful on defense. I repeat: the Jaguars are awful on defense. They get decimated on the ground and in the air, and even though they kept the Steelers in check last week, I don't suspect they can maintain. Jennings came back last week and, like Bell, got the looks in both phases of the game. He got 19 carries and caught 8 passes. Against a crap defense you are looking at a guy who could break off long chunks of yards. I don't suspect he'll be that popular a play with many other studs taking the field, but the volume and defense have me really liking his upside.
Antonio Brown
Look at it this way. Brown has had one week in his last four in which he hasn't caught nine balls. And he's had double digit targets in every game but one over the course of the season. This many looks will just translate to a high reception totals. This isn't really a secret at this point. I suppose there is a case to fade Brown in this scenario, or at least put him in the middle slot to just lock up the points. But I think he's enough of a favorite to hit the highest total that running him out in the nine reception slot is fine.
Josh Gordon
Oh man, if only he had a good quarterback. I understand that not all targets are created the same. Receiving 16 targets from Peyton Manning is much different than getting 16 targets from Brian Hoyer. But at some point volume is the primary delineator in determining who will get the most receptions on a given week. And last week was an indication that the Browns are happy to go early and often to Gordon. The dude’s a beast plain and simple. If he had an adequate QB behind center I’d probably have him as the top play. But the Hoyer thing is real and I simply like him instead of love him.
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