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Tony Romo - FD 8700 DK 7600 DD 13900 DFSTR
Mark Sanchez - FD 7600 DK 6800 DD 12700 DFSTR
Thanksgiving features more tough defenses than I can remember in recent memory, so it's with mixed emotions that I present to you two guys who I pretty literally don't believe in at all from a talent perspective. Romo is clearly the safer play - he's got the weapons and the pedigree. But for upside? Sanchez might be your guy. While he could go busto on any given week, saving the extra money in a slate where NO QB is truly "safe," and you sort of need to spend up to find upside elsewhere, I think Sanchez becomes somewhat fascinating. Beyond these two guys, though? I can't picture the case you'd make.
Aaron Rodgers - FD 9900 DK 9400 DD 17800 DFSTR
Jee-zus. The Pats have been SCARY these last few weeks. So why does Rodgers rank as our safest QB play this week? A bunch of reasons. First, he's gone 2x on this FanDuel price in all but 2 games this season. Second, he's uniquely positioned against the Pats because the Pack isn't nearly as susceptible as many teams to having everything go haywire if their #1 receiver gets shut down. For all the Pats' recent success, they've still allowed a higher than average number of yards to opposing QBs this year. With Luck and Manning having some question marks around them for this week (mostly match-up related), I like Rodgers best.
Drew Brees - FD 9000 DK 8500 DD 15600 DFSTR
I continue to believe that Brees is underpriced relative to what he can provide. He's continued to provide excellent price safety, and we still haven't seen what can happen when his extremely fast group of receivers breaks off the random huge play. Now the Saints aren't going downfield as much as many teams - that's why the completion % is so high, but the fantasy production hasn't followed - but against a middle of the road Pittsburgh defense, I think Brees is a great play for safety and upside. Again, we're looking at price here. Brees was in the same conversation as the other big names at the beginning of the season, and I truthfully don't see any reason why he shouldn't still be capable of a similar level of production.
Eli Manning - FD 7200 DK 7000 DD 12550 DFSTR
Bargain hunting? I'm thinking about Eli for GPPs this week. In spite of being crushed in every game, the Jags have allowed the 5th most passing yards this season. And it looks like Eli finally has a weapon that can help him erase a few mistakes and put up some numbers. Beckham is listed as questionable, but all reports are that he'll suit up. If he does, Eli could wind up being the best points per dollar quarterback during week 13.
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DeMarco Murray - FD 9000 DK 8400 DD 15450 DFSTR
Odds of Demarco Murray having to endure bad turkey-related puns with his helmet off at the end of this game are off the books. While Philly hasn't been as bad as last year against the run, they're still middle of the pack. And while Chip Kelly has managed to get the Sanchize to put some decent games together this season, I don't think he'll have the same success against Dallas. This should get Murray plenty of run (not like he needs more), and eventually those 28 red zone touches will start turning into more scores.
Joique Bell - FD 6300 DK 4700 DD 8100 DFSTR
It's not pretty at running back on Turkey-day this year, that's for sure. It's not that I'm some huge fan of Bell's talent, but it can't be the worst thing to get 16-20 touches against a mediocre run defense in a game where Detroit's fantastic defense should give him plenty of opportunities.
This is going to read pretty similar to our week 12 picks, because frankly, not a lot of prices shifted the way they ought to have.
Justin Forsett - FD 7600 DK 6300 DD 10500 DFSTR
We gave you Forsett in the week 12 picks, and all he did for you on Monday night was go out and run for 186 yards and 2 touch downs. For some reason, his unsexy track record is lending itself to lower prices than other true RB1s, but that doesn't match up with his production. Sure, there are still concerns about what happens from 10 yards and in, but game after game, Forsett is punching it in from beyond that distance. Some of this is luck, but some of it is blocking schemes. San Diego is one of those deceptive defenses when it comes to defending the run. They've been the 8th worst team in YPC allowed (4.4), but their totals are in the middle of the pack. With the SD offense struggling and unlikely to pull away, I think Forsett gets the full assortment of carries, and that he'll deliver fine returns on these prices.
Tre Mason - FD 6000 DK 4600 DD 7550 DFSTR
Mason didn't "break out" last week, but he continues to get very consistent opportunity. For $6,000 on FanDuel, that's really all we can ask for. Oakland has allowed the 7th most rushing yards to opposing teams this year, and Mason seems to be easily the safest RB in the punt ranges for both opportunity and opponent for this week.
Le'Veon Bell - FD 9200 DK 8700 DD 14450 DFSTR
If you're looking to spend at RB this week, one has to imagine that Le'Veon Bell will be at the top of most lists. While his 200 yard game against the Titans feels like a distant memory, Bell's opportunity got arguably better with Blount being re-purposed to New England. Bell is 2nd in the league in rushing yards, and adds a nice receiving game compliment as well. What I love about Bell? The red zone usage. His 33 touches down there this season are sort of other-worldly, and these will convert to more scores soon. With New Orleans' rush defense heading in the wrong direction (having just been torched by the aforementioned Forsett), this could be another monster game for the explosive Bell.
C.J. Anderson - FD 7800 DK 6900 DD 12150 DFSTR
We gave you C.J. in our week 12 picks, and boy did he pay it off. It's crazy, because the narrative is nearly identical this week as last. Like Miami, Kansas City has a top 2 pass defense. Like Miami, they are decidedly more susceptible against the run. The one thing you don't love about facing KC is that they tend to depress overall possessions with their run first offense and short but high % passing game, but I think Anderson will still get plenty of run against the division. He's basically all we hoped Montee Ball would be, but cheaper than Ball was to start the season. Great buy.
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Dez Bryant - FD 8800 DK 7900 DD 13500 DFSTR
We gave you Dez in our week 12 picks, and he's going to be headlining things for us for week 13. There are a number of factors to consider that work in Bryant's favor. 1) The Eagles have allowed the most yards per game through the air this year. 2) While Murray gets a ton of red zone work, Dez's 11 red zone targets this year still rate favorably with other big name WRs. 3) He doesn't need to be in the red zone to score. A terrific match-up for one of the most dynamic talents in the game.
Anquan Boldin - FD 7300 DK 5700 DD 11050 DFSTR
Well, we've given you Boldin week after week, and it's kind of weird to keep recommending him as the price climbs. But here we are! Here's the case for Boldin on Thanksgiving - I think Richard Sherman will track Crabtree, and Boldin's targets have climbed to 11 per game in the last 3 games. With Kaepernick's confidence clearly rattled, Boldin is the last safety net he has, and I see him excersising it frequently.
Odell Beckham Jr. - FD 8500 DK 6800 DD 13000 DFSTR
I was honestly shocked to see Beckham as the best value high $ receiver in our projection system this week, but here he is. Our system is fascinating me with this selection, because it doesn't know any of the story surrounding Beckham's climb into stardom. It couldn't care less about the most ridiculous catch in human history, just the opportunity, opponent, and numbers. Well, here they are - Beckham has turned into a true WR1 in terms of targets, his YPC will always be high due to his down field ability and YAC ability, and he's facing the league's 5th worst passing defense. What else do we need to know, here?
Josh Gordon - FD 8100 DK 8300 DD 12950 DFSTR
Well, I told everyone to wait on Gordon last week, and I was blessed by the fact that he didn't find the end zone. I don't think we can count on that to continue. Gordon saw a ridiculous 16 targets last week, and it looked like Hoyer wanted to kiss him like a soldier who had just returned from a war. All bets are off on Gordon's ceiling at this point, and I'm now firmly in the camp that he'll be a $9,000 receiver on FanDuel by week 14.
Antonio Brown - FD 9200 DK 9000 DD 15250 DFSTR
If you want a guy who is a heck of a lot safer than either of the above two guys, but who perhaps lacks their upside strictly from a points per dollar perspective, I'll submit my personal man-crush: Antonio Brown. Brown is now second to Demaryius Thomas in targets (by 1), but converts his targets into receptions better than anyone in the league. You know what that means? Safety. In a league where WR1s disappear like it's going out of style, Brown has submitted single digit fantasy points only one time this year. The Saints play a high-possession style, and I don't think Brown has any issues getting his touches, and his insane 21 targets in the red zone this season leave upside to spare.
Kelvin Benjamin - FD 7900 DK 6600 DD 11950 DFSTR
Another guy who just needs to be priced higher, based on what his opportunity is and what he's capable of. The Panthers' running game has been anemic this season, and the rookie Benjamin is only getting trusted more as the season goes along. He's basically Mike Evans without the singular breakout game to point to, and for much cheaper. He's coming off his highest targeted game, and even a relatively tough match-up with Minnesota isn't enough to dissuade me.
Roddy White - FD 7400 DK 6400 DD 10950 DFSTR
I have to say, I was declaring White for dead earlier this season, but there have been some very interesting patterns emerging that have me reconsidering. First of all, the Falcons' line has been WAY worse than expected, and this is really limiting Julio Jones' effectiveness downfield. This has led to an increase in targets for White, an increase in trust with Matt Ryan, and an increase in red zone opportunities as well. White actually has 1 more red zone target than Jones this season. In his last 5 games White has seen nearly 10 targets a game, and has provided 3 scores in that time. That's exactly what we're looking for from a mid-tier wide receiver. I don't think he's a GPP play, but I love him as a cash game play - ESPECIALLY with Patrick Peterson finally shutting down #1s in the last couple of weeks.
It's a huge week. We also like Keenan Allen, who we gave you last week, for instance. But, there are too many WRs to name. You'll need to get a free 3 day trial of our projection system to learn about what we think about the rest.
Jason Witten - FD 5700 DK 4500 DD 9250 DFSTR
While he's not the receptions hog he used to be, Witten's found paydirt in 4 of his last 6 games, which is a heck of a lot more than most of the tight ends on this slate. Honestly, it's gruesome after him. One of the Philly guys? A flailing Martellus Bennett? Not for me. Witten's my guy.
Rob Gronkowski - FD 7700 DK 7800 DD 15050 DFSTR
Greg Olsen - FD 6800 DK 5300 DD 9950 DFSTR
Jimmy Graham - FD 7500 DK 7100 DD 13650 DFSTR
What can I say? It's an expensive tight end's world. All three of these guys are the best bet on their team in terms of total targets this week, and while our projection system likes Gronk best, the difference is negligible to the point that it feels weird recommending one firmly over another. The message seems to be clear, though - spending at tight end is the best way to get bang for your $.
Delanie Walker - FD 5700 DK 4800 DD 9550 DFSTR
If you insist on going cheap at TE this week, perhaps for a cash game, I think Walker makes the most interesting play (though Fleener is in the convo again if Dwayne Allen misses more time). In his games with Mettenberger as the QB, Walker has averaged almost 8 targets per game. Changing QBs is (obviously) the most disruptive thing to a given offense, so it's instructive to follow current trends more closely in situations like these. With his big game in week 12, the rapport with Mettenberger should only grow going forward - leaving lots of opportunities for happy Walker owners.
Just a strategy note on kickers, since I figure I'll share what's working well for me this season.
I've been taking kickers against teams that don't have spectacular defenses in decent weather conditions. I don't look at the kicker's individual "skill" at all, just opportunity. Typically kicker will be the very last spot I fill, and while there are situations I'll avoid (I wouldn't play kickers against Seattle, for instance, or any team that's a 6.5 point or more underdog), I think you can justify playing just about any other kicker in a GPP format especially. Don't sweat this too much - just pick a guy that fits in with the rest of what you want to do and go from there.
Miami Dolphins
This one is my super-safety-uber-lock of the week. Miami took a little bit of a beating against the Broncos last week, but they're now bringing their top 2 pass defense against a team that couldn't pass gas. OHHHH! A gas pun! Now you know the Jets are in trouble. But for real - ignore everything you saw last week, and think back to the shut out of San Diego. That's what we're looking at here.
St. Louis Rams
While Miami is my safest defense of the week, the Rams aren't that far behind. While the upside against Oakland is somewhat limited due to the fact that they allow precious few sacks against them, they also have essentially no offensive weapons, a bad offensive scheme, and ugly fans. Okay, the fans part doesn't matter. But have you seen the guys sitting down near the field at the black hole recently? Jeez. Anyway - this Rams team shut down Peyton Manning a couple of weeks ago. And I'm supposed to be worried about Derek Carr? No. No, I'm not.
New York Giants
A straight up match-up play. The Giants are very affordably priced on all sites, and the Jags have allowed the most points to opposing defenses this season by a mile. You don't need to understand Xs and Os to see the value here, hopefully.
Give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr and @dougnorrie.
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