Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 11/21/14

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Point Guard

Kyrie Irving - FD 7900 DK 8800 DFSTR 7300He is rarely a big play because I think there is a certain narrative about Irving that is negative. And while he might not be the just-right point guard for Lebron, he does have fantasy value. He takes a ton of shots (almost 16/ game) and is still moderately priced. Washington has allowed worse than average scoring and rebounding to opposing point guards this season. I'm really like Irving for some upside here even with the matchup against Wall.

Mo Williams - FD 5500 DK 4600 DFSTR 3600
Finally seeing the starting role that he should have occupied weeks ago when Rubio went down. But Williams is one of those plays you look for when the opportunity comes knocking. If he's going to be playing thirty minutes a night running the point with the first unit then you are getting fantastic value. That's really the story with NBA DFS. Get guys like Williams at a discount until the pricing reflects that he is the starter.

Deron Williams - FD 7500 DK 7600 DFSTR 7000
His numbers look just a tad inflated because he got to play about 1.5 games in just one game last time around against the Bucks. But he's still been solid (if unspectacular) this season and is worth a nod in cash games at his prices. I doubt he ever completely goes off, but OKC is below average against point guards and Williams should get his looks. Again, he's rarely (if ever) going to be a thirty point scorer. But the assists and boards raise his floor enough that I can get him in as a safe play on a nightly basis.

Strongly consider Kirk Hinrich with D-Rose out. Dude has paid.
 

Shooting Guard

Kobe Bryant - FD 9400 DK 8900 DFSTR 7500
Can't believe it, but this guy is just kind of getting it done at these prices. And there's one simple reason for it: his usage rate is the highest in the league and it isn't particularly close. The difference between Kobe and number two is the same difference as number two and number twenty. It's insane how much he's getting the ball and chucking it up. He's averaging 24 shots per game and tonight gets to play a Dallas squad allowing seven percent more scoring than league average to opposing shooting guards. The Lakers have been able to hang in games and Kobe is going to get his.

Eric Bledsoe - FD 6800 DK 7500 DFSTR 7100
Monta Ellis - FD 7400 DK 8000 DFSTR 6800
Tyreke Evans - FD 7600 DK 7400 DFSTR 7200
I hate doing this, because it seems like a cop out, but these guys are in a logjam tonight for me. In our FanDuel projections they all sit right next to each other. In some ways this is good because it allow you to build out other scenarios and then slot in the guy who best fits. It's bad because I look like I'm waffling by not just picking a guy. They all have solid matchups and I'd be comfortable with any of them.

Danny Green - FD 4400 DK 4600 DFSTR 4200
Manu Ginobili - FD 5000 DK 5000 DFSTR 5800
Speaking of teams that get killed by shooting guards, Minnesota allows ten percent more scoring than league average to the position. Kevin Martin can't really get it done on that end and either of these guys are moderately safe at their prices. Not exciting by any means, but if solid punts don't enter the picture they allow for some salary relief.

Small Forward

Kawhi Leonard - FD 6800 DK 7200 DFSTR 6200
He's been fantastic all season and there's no reason it won't continue tonight. Really what's kept his price in check is the minutes. They've been a bit all over the place. That's what happens with the Spurs, and it's annoying for sure. But because my crystal ball is broken this week, I'm not going to get too much into the habit of predicting when the Spurs' minutes will be there. When he's a value I'm playing him and making my peace with it. Tonight is one of those nights. The T-Wolves are just dreadful against small forwards.

Josh Smith - FD 6900 DK 6500 DFSTR 7400
Want to take a gamble? Here you go. Things are trending poorly for Smoove over the short term, both in minutes and in being in the coach's favor (which are aligned ideas). He isn't in the best of standings. But his price has dropped because of it and really he is a guy who could win you a GPP if everything clicks. This is asking a lot, but to win a big tournament you need to take risks.

Tobias Harris - FD 7200 DK 7400 DFSTR 6700
What I hate about it is that Charlotte plays slower and than slow and that limits possessions. That's no good. What I like about it is that Charlotte stinks against small forwards and they are generally a mess in their rotations. Small forwards basically do everything better than league average against the Hornets. Tobias stands to see a bump in both scoring and rebounding, both issues for Charlotte. I like him as the safe foil to Smoove's volatility.

Shabazz Muhammad - FD 3900 DK 4100 DFSTR 3000
If you get word he is starting at PF again then this is a fantastic punt play. The problem is you just simply can't trust the T-Wolves as they started Bennett two games before and then the dude saw no run at all.

Consider Gerald Green as an upside play against Philly. He can go off. Or he can completely disappear.
Also consider Chandler Parson though it should be noted that for all of the Lakers' defensive deficiencies, small forward isn't one of them.

Power Forward

Note: If Pau is out again, Taj Gibson immediately becomes the PF#1 based on opportunity and ability. Moving on.

Channing Frye - FD 5000 DK 5700 DFSTR 5100
If you want safety with a little bit of upside if he catches fire, I don't see any reason not to continue throwing Channing Frye out there. Everything about him is consistent - from the minutes, to the looks, to the boards, and I think he'll give Charlotte's bigs plenty of issues as he spaces the floor. Great cheap option if you're looking to spend up elsewhere.

Greg Monroe - FD 7000 DK 7200 DFSTR 6700
I promise I'll give you someone with legitimate upside soon, but it's just too tempting to give you boring guys that I can basically assure you will pay. Our projection system has done a hell of a job ferreting out guys who will continue to produce on their price, and Monroe is one such guy. His rotations are absolutely locked in in Detroit, and he pays 4-5.5x on these prices on FanDuel with his eyes closed. Throw in a Hawks team that's allowed the 9th most points to opposing PFs this season, and I think we could see Monroe tap into a little bit of his upside as well.

Markieff Morris - FD 6700 DK 6900 DFSTR 5900
This is what you get when you start feeling bored at my picks! Markieff Morris! For real, though - the better Morris is essentially the perfect GPP play. His stinkers are what allow a guy who can score 50+ fantasy points to be priced under $7,000 on FanDuel. What I really love about him here is that Philly doesn't have anyone who should be able to challenge him down low and get him in to foul trouble, and given that the Sixers are up to their old tricks and ranking 29th against PFs this season, I think you can argue that there's some safety here as well.

Center

Gorgui Dieng - FD 5500 DK 6500 DFSTR 4500
With Pekovic still a few days away from even practicing, Dieng remains criminally underpriced. Even in a game that saw him score 2 real life points in the first half, he paid nearly 6x on these prices. The thing about Dieng is that he truly does a bit of everything - he can score, grab boards, block shots, and pile up massive amounts of steals. The Spurs current lack of a true Center only sweetens the deal. While the Wolves will likely get blown out, I still think Dieng gets his going away.

Nikola Vucevic - FD 8700 DK 8600 DFSTR 8100
If you're hell bent on spending on center today, or just happen to have the money left over on a night with a lot of possible punts, Vucevic seems like he's clearly the way to go. He's averaging 19/12 this season - and that doesn't tell the whole story of what he's capable of in this one. The big factor? Al Jefferson. Vucevic is exactly the type of rough and tumble, big bodied center that gives Al-Jeff fits. I can already hear him groaning and making exasperated faces. Vucevic is a high upside, high floor guy.

Jordan Hill - FD 6600 DK 6400 DFSTR 6100
Who would have ever thought that Jordan Hill would round into a real center? Well, he's grabbing boards, scoring fairly efficiently when he does have the ball, and has not yet been murdered by Kobe Bryant. I think we'll call that a success. Chandler is a fierce defender, of course, but he's also been playing rather limited minutes, and I think Hill sort of can't help but get his just by virtue of being involved in a fast paced game, and the fact that he won't be trying to post Chandler up or anything.

Also considered: Anderson Varejao

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