Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 11/15/14

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Point Guard

Damian Lillard - FD 8600 DK 7900
With Batum out of the lineup Lillard has seen an instant bump in production as some more of the offensive load has rested on his shoulders. If Aldridge is also out tonight against the Nets then I think I'll be playing Lillard everywhere. His price won't reflect that he'll basically be the number one and number two option for the Blazers on the evening. He can score in bunches and though the Nets are a slower paced team that holds point guards in check with scoring, I just don't think I want to get too far away from a guy likely to see a gazillion shots on the evening.

Deron Williams - FD 7500 DK 7600
On the flip side of this game is Williams who'll square up against Lillard, a dude not exactly on the court because of his defense. And if Lillard is controlling the tempo of the game and working as primary scorer, even less attention may go into the defensive side of the ball. The Blazers are already allowing 12% more than league average scoring to opposing point guards. Williams is a great cash game play because of his consistency and I actually think in this one he has decent upside.

Donald Sloan - FD 5500 DK 5100
I thought I had I finally picked the right night to play Sloan yesterday and then the blowout happened. He only played 27 minutes which really killed his upside considering he's been playing in the thirties most nights. I'm still willing to buy though it's getting tough considering the Pacers are just a struggling team. But the price remains low for the primary ballhandler in the offense. I don't love, love it, but if you are trying to make money work he can help as some non-punt salary relief.

Strongly consider Kyrie Irving and Darren Collison

 

Shooting Guard

Shooting guard is a pit tonight. Here's to hoping for some punt opportunities.
Kyle Korver - FD 5800 DK 6100
This guy has been absolutely killing it of late. Now I do think he's coming close to outstripping his value based on price. One reason I'm a little hesitant is that the guy is shooting well above his career marks from beyond the arc. His career 3PT FG% is .43% while this season it's over 55%. There's a fair amount of regression coming as guys simply don't make this kind of leap this late in their career. It's been a hot streak and we might be buying at the top of it. That concerns me. But I think for cash games he's safe at a tough position.

Thabo Sefolosha - FD 3600 DK 3800
Here's to hoping Carroll is out again tonight. Not that I am rooting for injuries or anything, but Thabo is a clear example of what happens when a proven NBA player gets an uptick in his minutes because of opportunity. He has paid off nicely and is a guy I've slotted into lineups when accounting for the minutes increase. This doesn't always work when it is a speculative situation (think what happened with Charlotte last night) but if it is a clear start, the Thabo is the way to go at these prices. He dropped a 12/6/1 last night which is plenty at these prices.

Danny Green - FD 4300 DK 4700
Coming on the second half of a back-to-back I'm expecting to see Green get a decent amount of run tonight. He needs to hit his threes to have a chance at paying off, but I think the minutes he sees tonight get him into value on these prices. It's a bit of a risk, but I don't think you want to pay up for anyone at the position. So taking a little risk with an implied thirty minutes from the guy is a find route to go.

 

Small Forward

Tobias Harris - FD 6900 DK 6800
This guy's been crushing of late and he is a dude who doesn't stand to get effected to terribly much by the return of Oladipo. Evidenced by last night, Harris is going to get his in the right situations. He's a double-double threat every single night and really crushes it when his shot is falling. Washington is about average against small forwards (Milwaukee was above average last night). He can definitely crush your soul on some nights, making him not the safest player in the whole world. But those terrible games keep his price in check. He's like Derrick Favors in this way. I'll be playing him tonight on the upside.

Kawhi Leonard - FD 6800 DK 7100
He is one of the few Spurs we aren't worried about getting Pop'd in a back-to-back and he is clearly continuing to make the leap. Kawhi is establishing himself as a top ?? (it's high) talent and his skillset allows for a solid floor every single night. As far as cash games plays are concerned, his price hasn't caught up at all. Middling between him and Harris is a solid strategy. Kawhi didn't get his full run last night and assuming his eye infection doesn't flare up again (as I'm writing this he was ushered off the court) he's a great play.

Chris Copeland - FD 5600 DK 5900
Hear me out on this one. In DFS we are looking for talent and opportunity as they relate to price. Copeland is just the kind of guy that can pay off in a big way. Consider last night: he gets in a little foul trouble early that limited his minutes. He then doubled down on that disaster by shooting abysmally from the field. And you say, "Doug, are you picking the guy or trashing him?" Picking him because everything that could have gone wrong last night did, and this guy still got up double digit shots in the game and played twenty-five minutes. For his lower mid-tier prices, you are getting pretty solid value as long as you can live with the chance that he is off his shooting touch. I'm willing to take the risk.

 

Power Forward

Paul Millsap - FD 8500 DK 8300
So one thing we kind of knew about Keving Love was that he wasn't (isn't) a good interior defender. This has carried over to his time on the Cavs where opposing power forwards are scoring at a clip of 21% higher than league average. Opposing power forwards also grabbing 12% more rebounds. And that doesn't include Sullinger's 19/10 from last night. Teams are coming to play against Cleveland this year and I think that sticks tonight with the Hawks. Millsap can turn in monster performances. He is inconsistent in his fantasy performances keeping his price moderate.

Blake Griffin - FD 9200 DK 9600
I'm really liking the prospects for this game. Phoenix plays at one of the fastest paces in the league and the Clippers aren't too far behind them. Blake has had an up and down year, but it's so early that for a singular talent I'm not reading too much into the tea leaves. He is still a primary cog in what they are trying to do and the Suns are about league average when it comes to defending power forwards. If things gets into the stratosphere with scoring then I think Blake pays this price tag.

Derrick Favors - FD 7100 DK 7300
He's really coming into his own now. Gone (hopefully) are the days when he's play 27 minutes and you'd be left wondering what had happened to the guy. He's getting his run and honestly, that was really the only problem with the guy. He just needed his minutes because when he's on the court he gets it done. Favors puts it in the bucket, is a threat for double digit boards every night and throws in enough of the auxiliary stuff that he's almost a (gasp) safe play on a nightly basis. Again, all we were ever worried about was the run. It's there now.

Watch for Duncan's status coming off the game against the Lakers last night. If he sits then Boris Diaw becomes a solid option.

 

Center

Anderson Varejao - FD 4900 DK 5200
Atlanta has been getting kind of killed underneath this season. One thing I think the Cavs have been taking advantage of (I think, I don't have definitive proof of this beyond the eye test) is working on finding the weaknesses in the opposing team and exploiting them. This is somewhat obvious of course, but what I mean is that I think they are inclined to find who has the best matchup on a given night and take advantage. Look for them to do this tonight with Varejao against a Hawks' D that allows 20% more scoring than league average to opposing centers. He's coming so cheap and basically paying this at 5x (FD) every night.

DeAndre Jordan - FD 7100 DK 7500
This could be beast mode territory for 'Dre. Phoenix doesn't really have the bodies to work him down low and keep him off the boards. In what should be a game with heavy volume, played at a lightening quick pace, Jordan could really pile it up in the secondary categories. I like his floor tonight because I think he has the ball carom his way a ton. His value is in the boards and the blocks. I think he gets both tonight.

Strongly consider Marc Gasol and Al Horford

Ready to make the leap and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks? Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel and DraftKings. And now - for the next month - you can get access to our Football projection tools AND our baskeball projection tools for the same price! Sick deal.