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Andrew Luck
Basically you are hoping for a monster shootout in Indy against the Pats. The thought process with Luck hitting the top end of touchdowns thrown is that he throws a ton of touchdowns. Like that expert opinion there? The Colts throw so, so much that Luck is just a favorite to hit at least three touchdowns in a game. They pass the ball around 60% of the time in the red zone and that alone means the Colts will get in the end zone at a higher clip through the air than on the ground. The over/under on this game is creeping towards sixty and there will be a lot of scoring. That should keep Luck throwing until the end.
Matthew Stafford
With so many great quarterbacks going this week I’m looking for a little separation. We can get that in Stafford. Compared to Rodgers, Manning, Brady and the aforementioned Luck, Stafford could become a second thought. But he has Megatron back on the field and that pairing hasn’t missed a beat. He found him on a long touchdown pass last week, and with the emergence of Golden Tate, Stafford has the weapons. The Cardinal pass defense among the worst in the league and Lions should get a lot done through the air. Stafford throwing 3-4 touchdowns in this one isn’t farfetched at all.
Calvin Johnson
It’s kind of weird putting a wide receiver here only because they are going to get their yards in only one way (and with limited opportunities) compared to a running back that can run and catch for his yards. But Johnson is a singular talent and this matchup is just so juicy. I don’t think anyone has a great chance to hit the top all-purpose yards category, but Calvin could make things interesting. Last week he caught seven balls for 113 yards against a Miami team that ranks second in the league in opposing teams passing yards. This week Megatron goes the other way, facing a Cardinal team in the basement. He could put up a monster. And though it pains me to take him out of the targets category, I think he could hit the stratosphere in this one.
Matt Forte
After a down week last time around in which the Bears were lambasted by the Packers, look for them to try and go back to what had worked for them early in the season. And that was giving the ball to Forte early and often. They have no reason to save him at this point considering they have to start winning and I think you see his usage spike again. He is a fantastic weapon both on the ground and through the air where his targets are out of the box for running backs. I think some folks have soured on Forte but the upside is for sure there against an average Vikings defensive unit.
Antonio Brown
He’s caught at least nine passes in the three of his last four games and the one his missed he had eight grabs. What’s not to like and why would you try and fade him in this spot? He has ten percent more targets than the next closest guy and is obviously the direction Big Ben is looking most often. This one is easy. He is the most targeted receiver in the NFL and the best stat to predict catches is the one that shows how much a ball is being thrown someone’s way. That’s the case here and you can easily slot Brown into the nine receptions category without thinking twice.
Demaryius Thomas
Because I’m probably playing Calvin in my all-purpose yards category I am going to have to look elsewhere for the receptions. This is a chalk play through and through, but I don’t really want to make a case against him. He’s had double digit targets in five of the last six games and the one he missed was only by one. His usage in the passing game is ridiculous. I’m not worried about the blowout here because the Broncos, much like a college football team, are committed to passing and scoring no matter the situation.
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