Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 11/12/14

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Point Guard

Jrue Holiday - FD 7300 DK 7400
As with any night the Lakers are playing you are going to want to have exposure to their particular brand of awful defense. The problem here of course is how much exposure you want to the Pelicans on the chance they completely boat race LA into oblivion. This is a very real possibility. That being said, independent of how much exposure you want here, Holiday makes a solid PG play facing off against Jeremy Lin. Holiday, until the game against the Cavs had been remarkably consistent this season. Look for him to get back into the upper echelon of scoring tonight if he can see the fourth quarter.

Deron Williams - FD 7700 DK 7700
Good news, bad news on this one. The good news is that D-Will is playing big minutes for the Nets and any time you can get the primary ballhandler/ scorer for a team in the midranges of salary like this the floor will be pretty high. The bad news is that he isn't a favorite to completely crush his price on a given night simply because the Nets are slow in their PACE and will rarely generate enough possessions to have him really go to the moon. The Suns do get up and down the court leading to more usage for D-Will. I like him as a cash game play.

Reggie Jackson - FD 7700 DK 6500
Without Durant and Westbrook in the lineup Reggie Jackson is basically taking on the role of lead chucker. He is going to get his shot up on a team that lacks many guys who can score. The Celtics are playing at a torrid pace this season and I think this will lead to a ton of opportunities for Jackson. Wouldn't be surprised if he ended up as the top scoring point guard on the night.

Consider Rajon Rondo if he's back in the lineup
 

Shooting Guard

Tyreke Evans - FD 7500 DK 7600
It isn't like some expert thing to pick teams against the Lakers. This is pretty widely understood concept even on such a short season. But it remains something to consider. I think 'Reke is viewed as a high ceiling/ low floor kind of guy, but that hasn't been the case this season. He's putting up numbers across the whole stat line and actually makes for a safe play on any given night. His main fantasy issue is that Anthony Davis takes so many of the opportunities that I just don't think we are going to see many of those crazy upside games we saw last season (when Brow was out). Still, if you can fit the salary, this seems like just his kind of game.

Evan Fournier - FD 4900 DK 4900
He was one of our top shooting guard plays yesterday and that worked out like aces. The great thing about Fournier is the minutes. He's playing major minutes out of the two and that's really all you can ask for at his prices. The salaries have climbed in the short term, and with good reason, but I don't think he's outstripped his value. Like most 2's he needs to hit is threes, but he's jacking a ton of shots anyway.

Alec Burks - FD 5300 DK 5000
His price is a little depressed because he's run a little bad in his shooting percentage tonight and I don't mind him for a contrarian play because of it. Will think about running him in some GPPs on the off chances that his FG% regresses some and he catches some fire.

If enough punts surface throughout the day you can consider James Harden but it's an overpay considering Brow's amazing-ness. Also, if Demarre Carroll sits then Thabo Sefolosha could chuck in some value with extra minutes.

Small Forward

Iman Shumpert - FD 5300 DK 5000
To afford some of the big ticket guys tonight without compromising too much in terms of safety you are going to need to start a guy like Shumpert. He is such an interesting case this season because his role has almost completely changed from what he's done his whole career. He's getting a ton of run. Handling the ball a lot more and being asked to take part in the offense beyond just drifting around the three point line. He is still underpriced considering his usage and I'll be playing him a ton in cash games.

Tobias Harris - FD 6900 DK 6800
Had a monster last night and we had him as a top SF play on the day. He put up a 23/13/5 against the Raptors and should be in line for something productive tonight. The Knicks have been killed by small forwards this season in terms of rebounding and assists. It's a short season off course, but some of these things normalize rather quickly. Harris is able to produce in a number of different ways and though he can pull disappearing acts if he gets in early foul trouble. But I still like the upside at these prices.

Kostas Papanikolaou - FD 4200 DK 3700
I can't pronounce it, but if he's starting again for Terrence Jones then you can take a flyer on him at punt price. I know Donatas had the better game last time around, but if Kosta is going to play thirty minutes with the starters then his floor is so high relative to price. He's especially attractive on DK.
 

Power Forward

Anthony Davis - FD 11200 DK 11200
My goodness look at those price tags. Really something to behold. But want to know the amazing thing? That we are even considering any player at these salaries. Reminiscent of Durant's insane run from last year we need to ask ourselves just how safe it is to play Davis at these numbers. Without at least one, maybe even two solid punts, getting him into your lineups without some major sacrifice is going to be awfully difficult. But man, he's paid this price pretty much every game but one. If there is blowout you are totally cooked on him, but no player has as much upside considering he's facing a fast team that plays terrible defense. I'll be back and forth on him until the end but he is clearly playing at different level right now.

LaMarcus Aldridge - FD 9300 DK 8900
One thing that hasn't seemed to change from last year to this year is just how bad the Nuggets are on the interior. They are getting crushed down low by really any big man who gets close to the basket. Teams are scoring at will in the paint. Aldridge is in a great spot tonight and should see bumps in both his scoring and rebounding. The Blazers looked a little lost at times last night, but I don't think it lasts (though Batum might be more important than we realize). Aldridge should have his way in the blocks.

Paul Millsap - FD 7900 DK 7500
Not a guy I've mentioned this season, mostly because his price has been a bit too high and he has been rather pedestrian (relatively speaking). But he's in a good spot tonight against the Jazz who are allowing a ton of points over league average to the power forward position. With Horford back in the mix, Millsap doesn't have as many scoring opportunities, but he's seen his price dip because of it. He's landing in the zone of value right now and I like the buying opportunity.

Derrick Favors - FD 7000 DK 6900
One the other side of things is Favors. One cool thing about Favors in terms of DFS strategy is that his price remains depressed because the sites are basically taking an average of his production to inform cost. But he's the kind of guy who only has two modes: Amazing or Awful. When it's clicking, he pays this easily as a double-double machine with some blocks thrown in. But when he breaks, he breaks bad.

Luis Scola - FD 4400 DK 4300
I wish he saw like four more minutes a game (like I really thought he would with West out), but he is fairly safe at these prices considering he grabs some boards and buckets. Just a way to fit some salary in a pinch.

Center

Center is a great place to grab so low cost guys who play a ton of minutes.
Jordan Hill - FD 6100 DK 6500
New Orleans has been about league average defending the center position this year, and Hill continues to come at real nice value considering his usage and minutes per game. I love him in this spot today, even with the blowout risk. He's paid this price every single game this year, even last night against Marc Gasol and the Grizzlies. His salary makes it easier to afford some of the bigger ticket plays. Might see some of his board gobbled up by Asik and Davis, but it's a risk I'm willing to take.

Omer Asik - FD 5400 DK 5900
Asik is right there with him. He doesn't have the consistency of Hill, but the upside is around the same area. His prices allows some more flexibility without sacrificing too much uncertainty. That's a key consideration tonight when you will have to make some tough decisions about how to allocate dollars. He's averaging more than ten boards a game which is of course great. And if you catch him when the balls finding the hoop then he can really blow it out of the box.

Robin Lopez - FD 6200 DK 6000
The Nuggets are just that bad against opposing centers. They've allowed 30% more scoring than league average against the position, which is only slightly worse than what they were doing last year. They just can't defend down low. Lopez is much like the guys above. Cheaper with consistent minutes and a chance to turn in one of his better games because of the competition.

Strongly consider Al Horford and Roy Hibbert

 
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