Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 11/10/14

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Point Guard

Donald Sloan - FD 5700 DK 4900
Sloan is a guy whose price will absolutely climb by the time this week is over. He's been producing very consistently on this number, and the Pacers injuries only continue to mount. While he's got 2 stinkers, he's paid 5x (or more) during every other game this season. With Hibbert hobbled, Sloan will likely see his usage rate only continue to increase, and I love his match-up against the under-sized Trey Burke.

Jrue Holiday - FD 7400 DK 7300
Our projection system can't quit you, Jrue Holiday. We ignored it (to our own peril) Jrue's last time around, but we won't make the same mistake this time. Holiday's 15/11 with 3 steals against the Spurs is exactly the kind of line Holiday will produce when he's getting minutes against a less than stellar defender, and Irving is just that. There's no way Kyrie stays in front of him, and Holiday should be able to get his teammates into great position early and often.

Kyrie Irving - FD 7400 DK 7400
The price is swirling down the toilet for Kyrie, who has struggled to deliver premium fantasy value this year. Let's have a look deeper and figure out what's going on. Both his FG% and 3PT% are down, which doesn't make a whole lot of sense considering the spacing the Cavs are capable of on the offensive side of the ball. Both of those will climb. Even more curiously, his assists and rebounds and both randomly down, in spite of a 13% increase in minutes. Not sustainable. We're getting into "too good to pass up" territory for Kyrie's price, and taking him against New Orleans (23rd against the PG last year in FPs allowed) is looking pretty tempting.

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Shooting Guard

Kyle Korver - FD 5100 DK 5200
Korver is a guy who our projection system seems to want to recommend every single time he goes out there, while his prices are this low. It likes him in this match-up in particular, as Shumpert will likely be chasing Teague around, leaving Korver with a decent match-up with whoever else rotates over. Kover is playing 10% more minutes than last year and shooting 20% more shots. While he won't post monsters every night, he should be nice and safe even when his shooting % comes back down to earth.

Tyreke Evans - FD 7600 DK 7500
Tyreke has been mister... reliable? this season. With more than 30 fantasy points in every game he's played, we're basically at the whim of his minutes, not of his talent. This is a good thing. And he draws a nice matchup with Cleveland, assuming he draws the defensively weak backcourt duo of Irving and Waiters. In a game where the Pels should be competitive, I expect Tyreke to play 33-36 minutes, leaving him more than enough time to pay off these prices.

Danny Green - FD 4700 DK 4700
Another guy our projection system loved in advance of his last breakout game. If Belinelli is out, we can continue to look at Green as a very reliable source of minutes at a reasonable price. While he is clearly dependent on getting the three to drop, he actually adds a lot of odds and ends via steals, blocks, and rebounds. When he gets his minutes (and he will with Belinelli out), Green is a reliable play with upside.

Also considered: Jimmy Butler

Small Forward

Chris Copeland - FD 5300 DK 6000
An off night for Copeland is a happy accident for us, price wise, as Copeland remains ridiculously under-priced for what he is capable of. Weird stat - Copeland is 24th in the NBA in usage rate right now, just behind Lamarcus Aldridge and Tyreke Evans and just ahead of Anthony Davis and Klay Thompson. Dude is getting the rock. Utah was below average against small forwards last year, but it doesn't really matter. This is a price and opportunity thing. It's a little risky taking him over Solomon Hill (and I can't kill you if you prefer Hill), but I'm sticking with the brief track record here.

LeBron James - FD 10400 DK 10500
On short slates, it's crucial to get your money in good on your big investment plays. After an early season shake up, Lebron is looking like exactly that guy. They're trotting him out there for 40+ minutes per game, and he's got the grim determination of a man who is sick of explaining things to the media. Even better, the Pels have no one that matches up with Lebron at all. Is Ryan Anderson supposed to cover him? Tyreke? This could get ugly.

DeMarre Carroll - FD 5300 DK 5000
You don't get Caroll because he's sexy, you get him because he's safe. He's firmly in the rotation for 30-35 minutes per game, and has paid off these price at 4x-5x on FanDuel in each of his last four games. The Knicks were league average against the SF last year, but that was with Tyson Chandler prowling the paint and keeping away opposing drivers. This year's poo-poo platter of an indifferent Melo, a hobbled Stoudemire, and a bunch of other loose parts aren't anything to scare us.

Also considered: Josh Smith, Solomon Hill

Power Forward

Blake Griffin - FD 9100 DK 9400
Another guy who we need to take a deep breath on with regards to his early season returns. Blake's been incredibly consistent in terms of steals, FG%, and rebounding for his career, and all of those numbers are unsustainably low. If those pick up and the slight increase in minutes is legit, Blake is due for some monster games in short order.
With Splitter out and Duncan a year older (and don't get me started on Diaw), the Spurs are going to have a heck of a time dealing with explosive bigs. Blake is one such man. This could be his break out game of the season, and his lowest price of the year going forward.

Pau Gasol - FD 8300 DK 7900
If you're in the market for a little bit of safety, consider Sr. Gasol. An increase in minutes from last year has seen a commensurate rise in his statistical performance, and Detroit (18th in the league vs. PF) poses a lovely match-up. What I like in particular is that Detroit's bigs specialize in the "all sizzle, no steak" defense. Since Pau can score from several different spots on the floor, he shouldn't have too difficult a time using his craftiness to put up some numbers here.

Anthony Davis - FD 11000 DK 11000
Davis has been an absolute tornado this season, wreaking havoc in every way imaginable. The guy scored 20 fantasy points in blocks and steals alone last game. While Varejao is a stout defender, I'm fairly sure Davis will draw a lot of Kevin Love in this game. It's simply a mismatch in terms of athleticism. The thing dinging Davis here is the cost - it might be tough to play him unless a handful of punts burble up to the surface before tip time. But if you go with the cheap Pacer guys, getting Davis in there becomes a real possibility.

Also considered: Melo. Seriously. Have a look at his game log - he's running bad, and it will probably turn around to some degree.

Center

DeAndre Jordan - FD 7000 DK 7500
After a slow start, DeAndre is back to paying off value on the back of his boards and defense. The same reasoning that applied with Blake applies here - who on the Spurs can begin to compete with Jordan for rebounds? I think the Spurs get buried on the boards, and Jordan looks like the safest play at his position by a mile.

Omer Asik - FD 5400 DK 5900
Asik has been a little bit up and down this season, but I like him plenty against the Cavs at these prices. Varejao shouldn't get him in to foul trouble, and Asik should have ample opportunity to pad his blocks against a Cleveland team that loves to drive the lane. If he plays the ~30 minutes he's likely to, paying off these prices shouldn't be exceedingly difficult.

Also considered: Keep an eye on the Roy Hibbert situation. If he's out, his back-up could be a nice punt, but more importantly - I'd move Enes Kanter way up since the Pacers would be woefully without anyone to defend or rebound the position.

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