Sleepers - Daily Fantasy Football Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and Draftster for Week 10

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A peek ahead at week 10

Looking for the week 10 picks? Follow the link! I go position by position and give you whom I believe to be the best plays, dollar for dollar, for Week 8's games. This article is going to be a little bit different. Instead, I'm going to focus on particular lineup formation strategies that might help you get some separation from the field and get those value plays and sleepers that will let you spend money elsewhere while cashing in for cheap.

 

Sleepers

Weekly disclaimer:
The whole concept of a sleeper in one week fantasy football games needs to be adjusted. First of all, there's no real such thing as a "sleeper," in that you're not really going to sleep on a guy until he wakes up. What you're looking at with cheap plays are guys who are priced very reasonably who could go off if all things break right. Sniffing out the best cheap plays with upside is really the only way to have a chance in hell at taking down some of these utterly massive NFL tournaments. You'll pay up for the big names, and then hope your bargain plays pay off. That's where we come in - here are some sleepers that we love for Week 10.

A note on week 10

Bye week hell, part three has us left with very little in the way of great cheap options this week. A lot of cheap options, like Bobby Rainey, or Denard Robinson, can hardly be called "sleepers" at this point. So this will be more value plays than true sleepers. We cool? Let's do it.

Mark Sanchez - FD 6600 DK 5400 DD 11500 DFSTR 5100
Really far from a sleeper here, given how he picked up the pieces after Foles' injury last week. Let's be real - there is a LOT not to love about the Sanchize. His career completion % around 55% is just AWFUL in the modern game. But, like, maybe it was the Jets offense to some degree? He obviously flexed some talent from time to time, and on these prices, we don't need him to do a whole lot to pay off these prices. I actually expect the Chip Kelly offense to use Sanchez's "talents" a lot more effectively by not asking him too do too much. If he can get Maclin, Matthews, and even McCoy in some good YAC situations, he could put up big numbers without having to test himself very much. Carolina has allowed a dismal 69% completion percentage to opposing QBs this season, and one has to figure they'll sell out to stop McCoy. Stranger things, right?

Blake Bortles - FD 6300 DK 5700 DD 10950 DFSTR 5100
WERE YOU AWARE: Blake Bortles scored 17.88 points on FanDuel last week. Now, you're all "Dude, that's not very good for a QB." Right, know it all. Chill for a sec and let me finish. While 17.88 points is not good in an absolute sense, we want to think in terms of points per dollar. On a points per dollar basis, that's like a $10,000 QB scoring 28.3 points. AND, if you don't love a lot of cheaper guys at other positions this week (and you might very well not given all the byes and the relative dearth of "sure thing" replacements), Bortles could look like a really interesting replacement option. Dallas has been a middle of the pack team in terms of passing yards allowed this year, but they've actually allowed the 6th highest completion percentage to opposing QBs. With Romo's condition uncertain, they might not be able to just get up and ride Demarco Murray's coat tails, leading to more opposing possessions. All of a sudden sticking Bortles in with no WR to stack and spending up elsewhere could be very interesting.

Bobby Rainey - FD 6700 DK 4400 DD 7650 DFSTR 4800
Wrote this about Rainey in the week 9 sleepers article:

With Doug Martin looking doubtful to play, Bobby Rainey may get his chance to spread his wings once again. Rainey has averaged an excellent 4.6 yards per carry this year, and has proven to be a comfort target to Glennon in the passing game as well. Cleveland has allowed the third most yards on the ground this year, and one would think that their offense isn't the type to have the Bucs dead in the water after the first half the way many teams would. A great spot to grab Rainey at a very reasonable price - a precious commodity in a week that lacks punts with great playing time.

What's happened since then? Rainey had another week of solid performance (more than 100 total yards), Doug Martin is still out, and we're transitioning to a QB with a smaller arm (McCown) who should be living a little closer to the line of scrimmage than Glennon was. The Falcons have been terrible against the run this year, and I'm not sure what they'll do with Sims. Great play.

Tre Mason - FD 5400 DK 3800 DD 6700 DFSTR 3200
It's with great trepidation and more than mild embarrassment that I present Tre Mason to you once again. I've been wrong on him every time I've either recommended him or cautioned against him - so what the hell, right? This is a GPP play in the purest sense of the idea. Again, you're getting Mason at bottom of the barrel prices. And maybe you should. Arizona is devastating opposing running games this year, and the Rams' running game has toiled in mediocrity all season. But the price!! Getting 17-20 carries for $5,400 on FanDuel means you can pair Julio Jones and Antonio brown, for instance. On a short slate, getting premium talents at a discount might mean the difference between bubbling a GPP and taking one down. If Mason's line from last week was 19 carries for 65 yards and a touchdown instead, he could be part of some terrific teams. I'm not sure why I'm getting defensive even as I'm writing this. But LEAVE ME ALONE!

Allen Robinson - FD 6400 DK 4100 DD 8600 DFSTR 4900
Kind of feels like I'm walking into a parole hearing with Robinson. Not sure how long I can keep sticking to my guns, given how the production hasn't matched the opportunity. Well - there's one last glimmer of hope on the Allen Robinson bandwagon. Cecil Shorts' return to the injury reports. If his hamstring issue is really as much as it was made out to be, Robinson could gobble up the lion's share of his targets. While Hurns out targeted him last week, I think that's more anomaly than indicator of the future. Not sure how much I'll be betting on being right, though.

Davante Adams - FD 5200 DK 3800 DD 6900 DFSTR 3800
I liked Adams so much that I couldn't wait for this article, I just went ahead and listed him in the week 10 picks article. The reasoning is simple. QBs tend to get to know rookie WRs over the course of the season and decide if they want to trust them more (in the case of Adams - two games with 8+ targets in his last 3), or less (cough, Markus Wheaton). Not only is Adams seeing more targets, but he's seeing a healthy dose of red zone targets as well. His 6 red zone targets are more than many big name receivers you know (more than ANY Falcons receiver, for instance). He's far from a lock - but you're getting him at back up prices. He played a ton of snaps with Boykin back as well - I think he's a fixture in the lineup, and that this price will skyrocket soon (think 25%ish).

A "sleeper" I'm off
Martavis Bryant - FD 6100 DK 5500 DD 10450 DFSTR 5600
As a dyed in the wool Steelers fan, this one pains me. I think Bryant is a fantastic player and a big part of what the Steelers will do in the future. But for fantasy? Meh. In his 3 games this season he's averaged just more than 3 receptions per game. Last week he played just 51% of snaps. And scored 2 TDs, I get it. But I think he'll be a high % play that is far more risk than reward. At some point, Roethlisberger is likely to stop hitting every single receiver in stride.. and if he does, Bryant will likely show up with a lot of 2 receptions for 24 yards games. There's clearly huge upside with him, but in a week where everyone will be on him, I'm pivoting the other way.

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