Daily Fantasy College Football Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 11 - Saturday Early Games

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Quarterbacks

Nick Marshall - FD 10700 DK 9500
I'm so so thankful I get to talk about Marshall this week. This dude is straight ballin right now and it should be business as usual this Saturday when Auburn plays host to Texas A&M. Speaking of A&M, what in the hell happened to them? They're a hot mess right now and don’t stand a chance against Marshall & Co. The fact A&M is in total disarray right now is actually my only concern about Marshall hitting his number. The blowout risk shouldn’t be ignored, but given the overall QB options I think its risk worth taking. In his last four games, all SEC conference games, Marshall has accounted for 14 total touchdowns (7 rushing), 809 yards passing, and 358 yards on the ground. That kind of consistency is hard to come by. Vegas has this game pegged with a total of 68 and Auburn as 23 point favorites. That should translate to plenty of opportunity for Marshall to put up his numbers. Next week Auburn travels to Georgia, which is the last tough game before facing Bama in the season finale. If this weren’t an SEC conference game I would have a little concern about Auburn focusing on the task at hand, but you don’t take any conference lightly, especially in the SEC. I probably won't be playing Marshall too much in GPP formats, but he makes for one of the best cash game QB plays for the Saturday early slate. I will also be pairing him frequently with fellow Tiger, Cameron Artis-Payne, in cash games to capture a larger piece of the Auburn pie.

Jameill Showers - FD 6300
Over at Western Kentucky they have a unique philosophy on how to run a program. They don’t believe in playing defense and have even accused defense as being the Devil’s work. Technically, I made that up, but if you look at the film (I haven’t) and the numbers opposing teams drop on WKU, you could see why one might think they don’t believe in defense. Over the past three weeks Showers has hovered in the mid to upper teens in terms of Fanduel points. That’s not outstanding, but I think that’s reflected in his price. UTEP is fairly conservative on offense and lacks the big play receivers on the outside, but this is one of those games where points are expected to be plentiful. Vegas is calling for a point total around 70 with WKU an 8 point favorite. Let’s break that down a little. WKU simply cannot stop anyone on defense, but they can score. Showers will touch the ball every snap and is expected to be playing catchup. Sure, he will hand off to Jones quite a bit, but there will be a lot of offensive snaps to go around and Jones can only handle so much. Add in his price point and Showers is one of the best cash game plays of the day. Part of that safety comes by pairing him with Jones. If Showers drops a donut in the TD category there’s a reasonable chance Jones hogged them all. Play em both my peeps and often.

*Showers/Jones and the “correct” combo of WKU receivers could be a dangerous GPP squad.

Running Backs

Trevor Knight - FD 8500 DK 7900
Knight has one too many bad games for me to use him consistently in cash games, but when the matchup is right he can offer a decent floor and a sky high ceiling. Looking back at some of his less spectacular games it was mainly due to the Sooner running game handling business and Knight simply not being needed to make a ton happen. While that’s certainly possible any week I think facing a team like Baylor will require Knight to be involved and involved heavily. No lead is safe and if the run game gets going it will only create big play opportunities for Knight to find Sterling Shepard down the field. Trevor isn’t afraid to get in on the ground game himself, like his 146 yards and three scores on the ground last week. I wouldn’t expect that, but Oklahoma is going to have to make some plays if it wants to win this game and Knight is the odds-on favorite to be that playmaker come game time.

Aaron Jones - FD 7200
Love this guy. Really love this guy. Two weeks I mentioned Jones with the tagline, "He's due". I also mentioned how my esteemed colleague, Doug Norrie, had a discussion about when a player is "due". Let's break that down for a minute. A player is really never due to score or due to have a good game. The reality is in 98% of the scenarios (I made that % up) the player is simply running cold or running hot and could just as easily continue on his current trend. Or it could simply be you want the player to be “due” and there’s actually zero statistical evidence to suggest a player is running cold. Think along the lines of the Red/Black tracker at the roulette wheels in casinos. After it comes up red 12 spins in a row you feel compelled to bet on black because it’s "due" to come up black. Wrong, each spin is independent of one another. The outcome of previous spins, are not an indicator of future outcomes. In sports it’s generally about opportunity. Jones started out hot, scoring 7 rushing touchdowns through his first three games. Over his next three games he scored zero rushing touchdowns, hence two weeks he was dueJ. The one thing Jones will have as long as he is healthy will be the opportunity. He is by far the most dynamic playmaker on the team and UTEP tries to get the ball in his hands as often as possible. Last week Jones got back on his horse and obliged my recommendation by scoring two touchdowns. This week Jones is due for a monster game. Okay not really, but he is due to go up against a team that has an odd philosophy (see Showers above) and he is due to receive a butt ton of volume.

Cameron Artis-Payne - FD 7300 DK 5800
Love this guy. I don’t really love him like I love Jones, but I have a lot of love and love CAP. I covered some of why I like Payne above with Nick Marshall. A&M is straight stinky-poo. Stinky-poo of the worst kind. Marshall hogs too many TD’s for Payne to crush his price, but that’s why you can get him at such reasonable prices. There’s no question who the main back is in the Auburn backfield and that’s a good position to be in. CAP has received fewer than 20 carries only twice all year. One of those games was a blowout against SJST where Payne ran for three scores averaging 7YPC on his 16 carries. You can expect much of the same this week; solid volume and decent yardage. As with most RB’s, touchdowns are always the difference maker between crushing their number or just being okay. His floor and his price have me all over Payne for cash games.

Nick Chubb - FD 9200 DK 8300
What’s not to love about my man Chubb? Georgia relied on Gurley and naturally they now rely on Chubb. (I said Chubb) They just give him the ball and I mean a lot. Like 99 touches since taking over as the starter (3 games). One thing to point out though, the touches have declined each week. In his first start he nearly melted after the game because he got the ball 42 times. Last week he touched the ball 26 times. The production, however, has not. Chubb has scored 30, 37, and 40 in his three starts. It is a little weird his totals have increased even though his workload has decreased and the matchups certainly didn’t get any easier. That’s something only Mr. Miyagi would be able to explain (that’s a Karate Kid reference for all you born after 1990). Kentucky is going to have a tough time containing Chubb and he is sure to be the focal point of the Bulldog attack.

Wide Receivers

Keevan Lucas - FD 8100 DK 8000
Keyarris Garrett - FD 4800 DK 4200
I'm not loving the early slate as a whole and the receiver position takes the cake. The high end guys seem to be either overpriced or have a bad matchup. There isn’t a ton of safety in the middle group and while there does seem to be a strong group of bottom end guys, they’re punt options for a reason. Two pairings stood out to me a little more than the rest. The first pair and my favorite pair are the due from Tulsa. Lucas is a beast. He has an incredible floor and even more incredible ceiling. The upside in terms of value is somewhat limited as his price has increased with his play. Still, in terms of raw points and safety, Lucas is the man. Tulsa passes more than it runs and SMU stinks out loud. He’s pricey so adding his partner in crime, Keyarris Garrett, helps to offset his lofty price tag. In fact, you could argue Garrett is the better value play. Unless this duo fall victim to the blowout they should serve you well. Maybe I see things differently, but I’m going to have a tough time getting away from these two

Antwan Goodley - FD 7400 DK 6600
Corey Coleman - FD 7500 DK 7200
These guys are more of a gut call for me and you all know what that means. You guessed it, $$$. I’m an ex- wrestler so I like to eat (now that I’m allowed). That automatically means my gut is an expert at all things related. Last week Baylor got up early and didn’t pass much in the second half. Anything is possible, but I don’t think that will be the case in Norman, OK this weekend. Goodley started off slow due to injury, had a couple strong games in a row and then was last week’s dud. Coleman is a little more up and down and considering he is actually priced higher I won’t be playing over Goodley in cash games. Don’t be afraid to play both in cash games, but between the two Goodley is the guy you want. This game should be back and forth and their respective defenses are probably going to make some highlight reels, but for the wrong reasons. Oklahoma sits as a 5pt favorite with a total a hair north of 70. That’s the kind of line you want to see; an expected high scoring game with a modest spread. Sometimes the perception is that Baylor spreads you out and airs it out, but they run the ball quite a bit. Still, they can score from anywhere on the field and the second a defense creeps to stop the run, BOOM, bombs away. Goodley and Coleman are Captain & Co. Captain of the Baylor Bomb Squad. Both are equally strong GPP plays.

Tight End

Here we are again. I just spent nine hours grinding (those of you who know, know), it’s near the end of this week’s piece and all I want to do is get a beer and check tonight’s winnings , it’s late, I’m tired, and my fingers are caked in Dorito dust. You know that greasy cheese coating you get on your fingers that seems to be ingrained in your skin much like a tattoo. Then when you come back to the couch after scrubbing your hands you realize your couch and pillows are covered in cheese finger prints. Now it’s freak out time. I still haven’t checked my scores to see how I’m doing and now I fear the wrath of god that is my wife cause my couch is covered in god damn cheese prints. It’s clear what has to happen. The guy (or woman) who invented Doritos needs to go down. Any of the guys below will serve as acceptable TE plays. Pick the guy that best fits your budget or just hit me up on Twiiter @cascarruthers
Maxx Williams, David Grinnage, Jimmay Mundine, Mitchell Henry, Blake Bell

If you want to see how these plays and some others fit into cash game lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings you can purchase a CFB pack that includes three FanDuel lineups, three DraftKings lineups, and a cheatsheet with analysis on a variety of other plays for $5 by clicking the PayPal button below. This service is separate from our NFL projection system.