Daily Fantasy Football Picks for Week 10 - FanDuel, DraftKings, Draftday, and Draftster

Well, if you read last week's picks article, you'll recall that we liked Ben for 6 TDs once again, figured that Matt Asiata would score more TDs than any RB, and that the Chargers would get shut out by Miami. Hopefully you're a first time reader. Did I delete that article yet?

Fo' real, tho. Last week actually turned out pretty well at DFSR headquarters - got buried in GPPs thanks to none of our punt receivers coming through, but managed a pretty solid week given the performance of our "play everywhere" guys in Jeremy Hill and Antonio Brown. Hope it turned out well for you, too!

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Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers - FD 9900 DK 9400 DD 16450 DFSTR 8800
Another week with huge names on byes, and some of the other "safe" guys have less than ideal match-ups. So, I present Aaron Rodgers to you as my safety play of the week. Chicago has given up the 9th most passing yards to opposing QBs this year, and I personally love the way Rodgers is looking right now. He's spreading the ball around, and the Packers seem content to shift some of the running touches into passing touches (as evidenced by Lacy's 9 targets last week). I'll take the QB with the best receiving core in the week's highest total any day.

Colin Kaepernick - FD 7500 DK 7300 DD 12950 DFSTR 6600
*ducks tomatoes being thrown* Listen, we put our money where our mouth was on Kaepernick last week and got burned the same way you did. That goal line fumble personally cost me 2 years of my marriage and some 4 figure amount, all told, given how I bubbled out of all my Kaepernick lineups. So I'm spurned, too. But the thing that plagued Kaep last week (sacks) against a New Orleans team that has managed ~2 per game this year. New Orleans has also allowed the 6th most passing yards per game to opposing QBs, and with the way their offense is beginning to click, could see the Niners playing from behind. If all that comes to fruition, Kaepernick becomes a very affordable option that would allow you to spend elsewhere.

Matt Ryan - FD 7800 DK 6300 DD 12400 DFSTR 8600
For all the moaning about Matt Ryan's performance in London, the guy did complete 74% of his passes against a tough Detroit defense. The offensive line is definitely a joke, though, and this is going to lead to a lot of low upside games against tough pass rushes like the Lions have. This actually makes Ryan a terrific play for daily fantasy football players. His price is going to reflect his full range of outcomes and average them out. We have the benefit of not playing him in his terrible match-ups, and focusing on his good ones. I'm thinking back to his Thursday night performance against the Bucs - him and Julio Jones laughing on the sidelines - and dreaming of warmer days. I'm also facing the cold hard facts that the Bucs have one of the worst pass rushes in the season - recording just 13 sacks this year. Throw in a fiesty Glennon-led offense and a terrible Atlanta run game and I think this could be just the game Ryan owners are hoping for.

Peyton Manning - FD 10000 DK 9700 DD 17050 DFSTR
Well, there's a lot to NOT like about this match-up. Oakland has not allowed a ton of yards in the air this year, for one. But as I pointed out in the week 9 podcast, this does not mean they have a "good passing defense." Oakland actually has a terrible passing defense, allowing the 5th highest completion percentage in the league. They've accumulated the fewest sacks in the league, recording less than 1 per game. The problem is that they are so horrible they are always trailing. That might very well be the case in this game, too, but after suffering an embarrassing loss to the Pats, my sense is that the Broncos make this a "get right" game. I also loved seeing a lot of Hillman's touches get converted to short passes as well. I don't know how much upside there is, here, but it feels like a pretty safe play to me.

Cam Newton - FD 7700 DK 6600 DD 12400 DFSTR 7400
Here's one you're going to have to hold your nose on. Newton has made the worst of great match-ups all season long, but with 10 days to prepare, and coming off of an embarrassing prime time performance, one has to think this might be the week that he actually delivers on the promise of his abilities. I think Ryan Fitzpatrick's game from last week is in play here - something like ~21 fantasy points on FanDuel. And I'm still encouraged by all the running. You can't call this a safe play at all, but if the Birds keep up their fast paced offense, Newton will have the ball in his hands.

Also tantalizing: Big Ben. Do you believe? He could absolutely torture the Jets, but it's simply hard to imagine him just hooking up on 50 yard passes every time he throws them for much longer. Don't mind the play whatsoever, but I'm personally likely to fade him in a week where everyone and their mother will be all over him.

Running Backs

Jeremy Hill - FD 6900 DK 5900 DD 9000 DFSTR
Sometimes, it feels good to be right. Hopefully you were one of the 40%-60% of fantasy players who followed ours (and, to be fair, a lot of sites') recommendation to play Hill when the Bernard news came out. More interesting is making this decision for a Thursday night game against the Browns and their 2nd worst in the league rushing defense. My take? This price is still more than fair for a guy who will get north of 20 touches in a game where the Bengals should be leading. If Bernard is back you can throw this pick out, but otherwise this pick is VERY reminiscent of grabbing Ingram in last Thursday's game. Feels kind of like a must.

Bobby Rainey - FD 6700 DK 4400 DD 7650 DFSTR 4800
Same story as Hill. A fresh running back will chew up opposing Ds this time of year, and Rainey has the benefit of going up against the Falcons and their 7th worst in the league defense. Here's the silly thing about these prices - we're seeing from teams what they want to do with these now-featured backs. If we get word that Sims is activated I'll still play Rainey. Getting more than 4 yards per carry and being a beast in the receiving game is enough for you to save on RB and spend up on a position of less security.

LeSean McCoy - FD 7700 DK 5600 DD 10250 DFSTR 7200
Our projection system just loves high volume running backs against crappy defenses. And that's exactly what we're looking at, here. While Sanchez came in and looked pretty good last week, one has to believe the Eagles won't choose now to start getting away from McCoy. And while it wasn't promising that he lost some short-yardage work to Polk last week - the 1 touchdown is an absolute joke of a statistical unlikelihood. McCoy has averaged about 1 td per every 30 carries in his career, and his 1 td in 160 carries is just not going to hold up. The guy has 26 touches in the RED ZONE ALONE. The TDs are coming. Mark my words. Even better, his early season YPC issues are a thing of the past. I'm buying McCoy while I can still get him at mid-low tier prices, especially on DraftKings.

Andre Ellington - FD 8100 DK 7300 DD 12400 DFSTR I26
Here's a new DFSR favorite! We gave you Ellington in the week 8 picks and the week 9 picks for much the same reason we're giving you McCoy this week, actually. He's still getting mid-high twenties in touches every single week, and the return of Palmer hasn't negatively impacted his role in the passing game at all. On the docket for this week? A Rams team that has allowed the 3rd most yards per game to opposing RBs. As snake-oil salesman Jim Cramer would say, "BUY BUY BUY!"

Marshawn Lynch - FD 8300 DK 6700 DD 11950 DFSTR 8200
One of the safer plays on the board for you double-up fanatics. The Giants should really struggle against Seattle's defense in Seattle's building, leaving Lynch and the Hawks plenty of room to run the ball. Seattle has shown no issues with leaning on Lynch heavily in games where they are leading, and I think something like 23-27 touches in exceedingly likely. If this happens, you also have to love Lynch's absurd red zone usage - accounting for 28 touches down there this season. As safe as safe can be, said the wise man!

Ronnie Hillman - FD 7400 DK 6100 DD 11600 DFSTR 6900
Hillman makes an evening more intriguing play than usual against Oakland's desperately terrible run defense. You're not psyched about the 1.6 YPC of course, but there were two great takeaways for Hillman owners in week 9. First of all - he got the goal line carry. Yay! Second of all, he was targeted an astonishing 10 times in the passing game. Now, some of this is because Denver was trailing and generally having trouble getting the run going. But what this means is that Hillman is a part of the picture no matter how the game goes.

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Wide Receivers

Antonio Brown - FD 9100 DK 8700 DD 15900 DFSTR 9000
We gave you Brown at the top of the list last week, and we have the lovely opportunity of playing him again in week 10 since the sites couldn't adjust their prices in time! In last week's write up I explained how Brown has emerged as the most consistently targeted WR in daily fantasy football. He then went out and got 16 more targets on an offense that has put up 12 passing touch downs in 2 weeks. He now leads the league in targets by 16 (granted the Steelers haven't had their bye), and is at a trust level with Roethlisberger that I'm not sure we are seeing anywhere else in the league at the moment. I'm actually wary of other Steelers targets this week, but I'll likely be playing Brown on every team once again.

Julio Jones - FD 8000 DK 6600 DD 11650 DFSTR 8300
I was tempted to put Julio on the top of this list due to the price concerns. It's amazing what a couple of bad weeks will do to a guy's price and perception. Jones is still on pace for 1,400 yards receiving this year. With 2 weeks to get healthy again, Jones will take on the very same Tampa Bay defense that he tortured earlier this season (was that this season? Feels like an eternity ago). Like Ryan, Jones is somewhat depending on Ryan having enough time to get him the ball where he wants it. This shouldn't be an issue in this game, and we're going to see Jones' price rise by 5%-10% after his performance this week. Count on it.

Kelvin Benjamin - FD 6700 DK 4200 DD 9750 DFSTR 6600
Hopefully you weren't one of the 40% of players who loaded up on Benjamin in last Thursday's games like I was. Yikes. So why does he make it on this list? A laughable price. While he hauled in a terrible 2 of his 10 targets last game, Cam was still looking for him down field. One of these weeks, these passes are going to land in his hands. He's actually really reminding me of the DeAndre Hopkins play from last week. Receivers have been able to beat the Eagles down field this year, and it isn't like Benjamin isn't getting open. Grabbing him at what amount to punt receiver prices actually doesn't even feel risky to me. Just takes a little courage to get him in the lineup. If he goes another week where he brings down 30% or fewer of his targets I'll re-evaluate. Until then, I'm in.

Mike Evans - FD 6600 DK 5900 DD 10400 DFSTR 6100
I mentioned Evans in our week 9 podcast, then failed to remember to put him in the sleepers article. Go James! While he's unlikely to ever have a match-up as good as Justin Gilbert again, the Falcons have been no great shakes against opposing receivers this season - allowing 286 yards per game (good for 3rd worst in the league) this year. It's clear that Evans is Glennon's preferred target at this point, as he's seeing his amount of looks rise steadily each week. He's another guy that will see his price rise by 10% with just one more good week, and it's likely that this is his lowest price for the rest of the season.

Anquan Boldin - FD 6500 DK 5600 DD 9900 DFSTR 5400
The Saints have done a nice job against #1 receivers this year, and methinks they'll still consider Crabtree that guy. I don't. Over the past 4 weeks Boldin has averaged 75 yards and half a touch down per game, and has been eating into Crabtree's red zone looks more and more (he now only has 1 fewer RZ look this season). For all their ability to limit opposing #1s, the Saints have still given up the 7th most receiving yards in the league, and I'm guessing most of those will land on Boldin's shoulders.

Davante Adams - FD 5200 DK 3800 DD 6900 DFSTR 3800
I wanted to save him for the Sleepers article, but there just aren't that many great receiver options this week. Our projection system thinks that Adams' performance against New Orleans is a sign of bigger and better to come, and the prices on him are just absurdly low. In a game where Jarrett Boykin returned, Adams played 68 of 71 offensive snaps, and led all Packers wide receivers with 9 targets. Dude is legit, and I outlined Chicago's struggles against the pass above as well. Hate to be a broken record, but again - lowest price of the season.

Tight Ends

Owen Daniels - FD 5400 DK 3300 DD 8350 DFSTR 4200
Man, it's brutal taking a week off from having Gronk available. Tight End is such a mess this year, that freshly knee-scoped Owen Daniels climbs to the top of our projection system after seeing 9 targets in back to back weeks. In spite of being dinged up earlier this season, Daniels is just 1 red zone target behind the waning Steve Smith for the team lead, and I'll be playing him a ton against a Tennessee team that's 19th in the league against opposing tight ends.

Larry Donnell - FD 5300 DK 4400 DD 9300 DFSTR 5300
After an odd 2 week disappearing act, Donnell has been targeted 7 and 8 times respectively, and continues to draw a ton of red zone looks. He's got more red zone looks than Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, and Greg Olsen. He's got one fewer than Julius Thomas. Granted, all red zone looks aren't created equal - but you're paying between 20%-30% less for Donnell. I'm just saying - the upside is very real with this guy.

Greg Olsen - FD 7000 DK 5000 DD 10300 DFSTR 5700
Two mouse-quiet weeks for Greg Olsen, and he's still pretty expensive. So how can we give him to you here? Well, it sounds odd, but - safety. Jimmy Graham has a hell of a match-up against the 49ers and his health is still in question, and a lot of the usable TEs are on byes. This has Olsen reluctantly being pushed to the front of this list with a, "Who, me?" look on his face. I'll be going cheap at TE today, but if you feel like there's too much uncertainty around the TE position, I think Olsen is worth a gamble.

Also considered - Martellus Bennet

Kickers

Just a strategy note on kickers, since I figure I'll share what's working well for me this season.

I've been taking kickers against teams that don't have spectacular defenses in decent weather conditions. I don't look at the kicker's individual "skill" at all, just opportunity. Typically kicker will be the very last spot I fill, and while there are situations I'll avoid (I wouldn't play kickers against Seattle, for instance, or any team that's a 6.5 point or more underdog), I think you can justify playing just about any other kicker in a GPP format especially. Don't sweat this too much - just pick a guy that fits in with the rest of what you want to do and go from there.

Defense & Special Teams

The Pricey with great match-ups:
Denver Broncos
This is pretty much a defensive match-up like you read about. Not only will the Raiders almost certainly not be able to move the ball on the ground, they'll also be playing from deeply behind early and often. I think this game will go much the same way the game against Seattle did. Who knows if Denver's D will punch a pick into the end zone, but they'll have plenty of opportunity to force turnovers against Carr and the Raiders.

Seattle Seahawks
This one comes with less safety, but arguably more upside. The Giants have been utterly hopeless running the ball since Rashad Jennings' injury, and while Eli has been pretty good about protecting the ball this year, the G-men have really only executed against bad defenses. They were shut out against Philly and managed 14 points each against Detroit and Arizona. There's always a chance good Eli shows up, but given that Seattle can sell out to stop the pass at home here, it's hard to imagine this not really going their way.

A mid-tier option
Pittsburgh Steelers
Everything went right for the Jets last week offensively. Chris Johnson compiled more than 100 total yards. Michael Vick completed 75% of his passes and didn't turn the ball over.

They scored 10 points.

This iteration of the Steel Curtain isn't exactly mean Joe Greene and company, but they can still get in the backfield and cause trouble. I think we see a trip back in time, where Vick drops down to completing fewer than 50% of his passes, affording the Steelers plenty of opportunity to put defensive points on the board.

A punt for your punting purposes
Looking to punt defense away this week. Consider the Atlanta Falcons. While Glennon seems to be finding his sea legs to some degree, he's still completing just 57% of his passes with a 10:6 TD:INT ratio. I think that, while the Falcons won't repeat their ridiculous defensive performance they put on earlier this season against the Bucs, the upside in this game is as high as any DST - though the safety is not nearly so high.

Give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr and @dougnorrie.

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