Daily Fantasy Football Picks Week 9 - ScoreStreak

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This is an interesting week on ScoreStreak and for DFS football in general. With so many bigger names on byes, the chance of hitting a perfect week here are severely diminished. I'm actually, in a lot of cases, advocating a safer strategy of hitting the second and third tier with your top value plays and saving the top end for the home run types. This approach in ScoreStreak can work especially if your opponents choose players who are expected to do well, but not necessarily crush it.

Passing Touchdowns

Andrew Luck
No real surprise here. Luck is the top quarterback on the day and will be featured somewhere (I suspect) in every ScoreStreak league this week. I'm not inclined to fade him in this format on such a short slate simply because his volume, combined with the opponent means he stands to get his TDs in. The Giants are ranked 25th in the league in yds/game against the pass though they have run pretty well in allowing passing TDs. I much more inclined to use the former stat, especially considering Luck's usage in the red zone. He has thrown the most red zone passes in the NFL and it isn't particularly close. We want the opportunity to score and Luck provides that more than any other QB going.

Peyton Manning
No real surprise here. What's interesting is that while Luck has the most red zone passing attempts in the NFL, Manning has the most inside the five yard line. The Broncos are content to use their weapons when down close and Manning is able to read defenses so well that he's almost always putting his receivers in spots to succeed. Passing so much down close has its real benefits in the ScoreStreak format because we aren't as worried about the Peyton's TDs being "vultured" by Hillman. The Patriots have been stingy against the pass this season, so I don't think Peyton is an overwhelming favorite to hit top end value. But I'll make a safety play with him here.

All-Purpose Yards

Demarco Murray
All-purpose yards is very difficult this week. As stated with touchdowns, it's tough to make a strong case anyone with a solid chance at hitting 160 total. I think I'm again going safe here with someone like Murray. By safe I mean that he's of course a chalk play, but I don't think I'll be putting him in the top slot. After seeing an insane usage rate to start the season Murray saw significantly less carries last week (compared to himself) in a sign that the Cowboys might have woken up about not getting the dude killed. Now one reason for his less carries is that he was breaking off longer runs meaning he did more with less. He's still a beast in the offense but against a Cardinals' D allowing less than 80 yards per game on the ground (they get torched through the air) I'm a bit tempered on the guy's high end upside.

Marshawn Lynch
Again, this is a crazy week with so many studs on a bye. Lynch hasn't seen the best usage rate of late, which is of some concern. But I think he gets back into the fold this week against an abysmal Raiders team that allows over 130 yards per game on the ground. I'll be playing Lynch in some of my 80 APY slots because I think the Seahawks feed him the ball early and often against a bad team. If his early season returns were any indication, I think we can slot him in for this marker against a bad squad. It's a little risky for sure, but on a short week you will need to roll the dice here and there.

Receptions

Antonio Brown
This one is rather simple. He leads the entire NFL in targets. Quick NFL primer: if you aren't passed the ball, you can't receive the ball. That's me dropping knowledge. He hasn't had less than ten targets in any game but one. that being said, he's hit nine receptions only three times this season. But of all the categories, this is the one I feel most comfortable putting a guy in the top tier. The Ravens have been among the worst in the league in allowing opponent passing yards, though I should mention that this is somewhat of a volume issue. The Ravens have had some games in which they've jumped out to big leads and the opposing team's been forced to pass. But I'm sticking Brown here as I suspect many others will.

Andre Johnson
Here's another high target guy who sees a bunch of balls in a given game. His yards aren't always there, but that isn't a concern in this format. He's caught at least six passes in five of his eight games this season and should be in line for some nice volume against an Eagles team that allows their opponents a ton of possessions. Again, targets are the key here and Johnson is a guy your opponents won't necessarily be on, but you can grab for some safety and value.