Daily Fantasy NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Tuesday 10/28

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Point Guard

Jeremy Lin - FD 5500 DK 6400
Steve Nash is out for the season. Bad news: sucks we won’t get one more year of Nash which would have been intriguing even at 70% of his former self. Good news: We know about it early and can adjust our DFS expectations accordingly. Jeremy Lin stands to benefit the most here as it looks like he’ll take over starting point guard duties rolling into opening night. Ronnie Price should see a bump as well and makes an interesting other-other guy punt play. But for Lin’s price, playing big minutes even on a crappy team, should make him a solid start on a short slate. Will probably be the lowest we see his salary for quite some time.

Elfrid Payton - FD 5600 DK 5200
An important (necessary) concept to understand in DFS is opportunity. Because you aren’t able to start every great player under the salary constraints, we want to find underpriced players who stand to see a ton of opportunity. Payton is one of those guys. The rookie looks to be the starting point guard for the Magic. This, in itself, is almost enough to pay off his opening night prices. He isn’t the best PG on the docket, and there will for sure be some growing pains. But if he is locking up close to 30 minutes a night as the primary ball handler, coming in the middle to lower tier in terms of price, then I think you can start him safely and spend money elsewhere.

Consider Jrue Holliday

Shooting Guard

James Harden - FD 9900 DK 10200
If you are looking to spend big money tonight, this is your guy. There’s a case for running it with Davis below, but honestly the injury stuff has me a little concerned and if you are going to use a huge chunk of your cap space on a guy with a hint of injury issue entering the season, then I’d just assume head for safer waters in Harden. The Lakers are shaping up to be their own version of awful again. We loved playing guys against them last season because their pace led to so much volume. With Kobe back and a new coach, I’m not sure that happens again. But Harden is coming off a season averaging 25/6/5 and is the obvious offensive lynchpin for the team. It will be interesting to see how Ariza replacing Parsons factors into the team’s production, but I don’t suspect it plays an enormous role for Harden in particular.

Evan Fournier - FD 4500 DK 3000
NBA is such a fickle thing. Few other sports have so many real-time changes that affect lineups across the board. As with Lin, we are getting information early after salaries have already been released. As it stands, with Oladipo out for awhile, Fournier steps in as the starting two for the Magic. At his punt prices, along with the minutes increase he’s likely to see because the Magic lack any other true SG (Ben Gordon or Luke Ridnour I suppose to could fill in some minutes) Fournier is a volume play plain and simple. We saw in Denver that he can play productive (if sometimes inconsistent) minutes from a fantasy perspective. He allows you to get money in easy on Harden and if you go cheap at PG is a great play to get Davis (if healthy) going in the power forward slot.

Strongly consider Monta Ellis
If I’m not spending up for the Brow, I think you need to allocate a bunch of dollars to SG tonight simply because the drop off in production from the top two guys to everyone else is precipitous. Ellis proved last season that he could co-exist in an offense with Dirk, and though it wasn’t always pretty, had the ability to control game flow and tempo, playing his style to positive results. On a larger slate I don’t think I’d go to Ellis in a pts/$ range, but the options are just so limited below him that I’m willing to overpay here considering I’m saving in both PG and PF. Because neither FD or DK are efficiency sites (RIP DraftStreet) we don’t need to worry too much about a horrendous shooting effort from the guy.

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Small Forward

Kawhi Leonard - FD 6100 DK 6200
And that was quick. Two hours after I post he's ruled out. There was an inkling this would happen, but he was too good an option to omit if he played. DO NOT PLAY
Writing this column a little early has its disadvantages. And one thing we know about the NBA, in how it differs DFS-wise from the other sports is that injuries and starting lineup questions sometimes are a last minute type of thing. Setting NBA DFS lineups is a singular experience, one I’m both giddy and nervous about starting again. It can be nuts. Right now Kawhi, coming off a dominating finals is dealing with some eye issues that have his status in question. If he were to play, based on our projections is nearly a must start in the pts/ $ category. Our projections have him making a modest bump in both scoring and rebounding this season as he becomes more a focus of what the Spurs are doing on offense. He’s also, when injury isn’t a concern, one of the few guys on the team that don’t run a huge risk of getting Pop’d in a given game. Check his status leading into gametime.

Trevor Ariza - FD 6100 DK 6200
Some of the system’s love for Ariza (and many of the Rockets) heading into this game is based on the Lakers’ putrid defense from last season. Without a true sense of how their pace will play into the opponents scoring at will a la last season, we need to trust that they’ll still be a garbage team with no real semblance of defense. They won’t play at the same breakneck pace with Kobe on the court, but they still lack the key components of a strong defensive squad. Guys like Jeremy Lin and Jordan Hill will do that to you. Ariza, coming over from Washington is a guy who could catch fire with among the best at times last season. Some of his production will give way to Harden’s need to score, but we saw Parsons have success in the Rockets’ system with Harden and Dwight. I imagine Ariza does much of the same. Hitting three pointers when necessary, slashing to the rim and generally picking up much of the ancillary production needed to hit his numbers.

Consider Maurice Harkless as a guy who should see more opportunity with Oladipo out.

Power Forward

Carlos Boozer - FD 6600 DK 7000
This is a price play as much as anything. It’s going to get real awkward in LA real quick with the team they are throwing out there. But Boozer makes a solid, if unspectacular play at PF on a short night. He’ll face off against Terrence Jones, who isn’t out on the court for his defense, and though the minutes will give way to Julius Randle some, Boozer did show a knack for making the most out of limited run in Chicago. Again, I’m all about price and opportunity. He averaged 13/8/2 in about 28 min last season on a team that worked at a snail’s pace. Look for him to match that production at least on a wasteland of a squad.

Anthony Davis - FD 10100 DK 9500
Monitor this one for injury news leading into game time. I don’t think it’ll be a sweat up until lineup lock on the first night of the season, but man am I hoping he plays. I don’t think you are getting insane value for his price on this slate, but there are so many ways to save in other slots that I think pairing he and Harden together in lineups is rather easy all things consider. Brow is a singular talent who is among the few guys in the league that can completely destroy a high salary on the right night. His blocks and rebounding ability really send his numbers

Consider Boris Diaw with Splitter out.

Center

Dwight Howard - FD 9500 DK 8800
Might literally kill Jordan Hill in this matchup. I’m being serious. How do the Lakers plan to stop Howard down low? It could very well be a bloodbath. The Lakers are going to struggle with opposing bigs all season and a recurring theme of DFS could very well be just auto-playing whoever is lining up at the five for the Lakers’ opponent. Howard went 18/12 last season, which in many ways was a disappointment. But heading into this game, this season, though his price is up there he stands to put up a monster in this affair. I just don’t see the Lakers having an answer. Robert Sacre? Even saying that makes me chuckle. The only real risk is the blowout though Vegas only has Rockets -6 so who knows.

Jordan Hill - FD 5100 DK 5900
Is he the best center on the slate? Not a chance. Does he represent crazy value considering his role and his price? Most definitely. The Lakers are operating already undermanned, especially in the big man department and with Hill playing center, they are going to get blitzed down low by the opposing team. Hence Howard above. But Hill should see 30+ minutes down in the blocks and for a guy with real rebounding potential and an ability to score down low, we really don’t give a crap what he’s doing on the defensive end. We saw that when out on the court for prolonged stretches, Hill could be a double-double guy. He might get chewed up a bit by Dwight but the Lakers have so few big options down low that even in a blowout Hill will play enough minutes to easily pay this price. I was tempted to put him above Howard on this list simply because his Pts/$ does outstrip Howard.