Daily Fantasy Football Picks for Week 8 - DraftKings

DFSR is excited to bring you Bryce McVay. Dude knows his stuff and he'll be bringing you picks specifically for DraftKings with an emphasis on that site's scoring system and value. We are pumped to have a great new voice in the DFS landscape.

Ready to make the leap and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks? Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, Draftster, and DraftKings. And now - for the next month - you can get access to our Football projection tools AND our baseball projection tools for the same price! Sick deal.

Want picks for FanDuel, Draftster, and Draftday as well? Check em out.

One question I am constantly asking myself is, “Has daily fantasy sports hit its peak?” Based on the revenue projections of FanDuel and DraftKing’s, clearly the sites expect much more participation in the future. As I have mentioned in my previous articles, this is my third year of playing Daily Fantasy sports and every year I see a spike in advertisement and player participation.

Recently, I have been playing a lot of poker. I mean a lot. No limit Texas Hold’em specifically, cash game and tournaments. If you didn’t already know, the poker world and the daily fantasy world have melded quite nicely. The competition, the analysis, even the user interface of DraftKings reminds me of a 2014 online poker website (college; those were the days).

When playing poker for 8-12 hours in a row, you’ll find yourself in constant conversation about sports; betting lines, the weekend’s big game, the local team’s disappointments (Tampa Bay Bucs and Rays for me). However, every time I bring up daily fantasy to a table of 9-10 players, very little speak up. One out of the ten normally seem to know exactly what I am talking about leaving me to guess they actually have an online account. Another two or three admit to knowing that it exists, but their basic questions show they’ve never actually put together a team. The rest of the table either refuses to take out their headphones or shows genuine interest in something they’ve never heard of before.

The fact is that daily fantasy sports HAS NOT reached its peak. In my opinion, not even close. If daily fantasy sports can stay legal under the “fantasy loophole” then I expect to see more and more new players, easier competition, and bigger payouts.

I did not post a Thursday article this week for two reasons. Massive amounts of poker being the first while the second was the oddities of last week leaving me with a very bitter feeling towards my previous two articles. For anyone that read my two posts from last week, you would know I gave two example lineups for the Millionaire Maker. Frankly, I was greatly disappointed in both. One lineup recorded 138.62 points (not awful but not a lineup that cashed) and the other hmm there’s no easy way to put this, so I’ll just say it. 88.52 points. I’m going to spare you the injuries that affected these teams or why they didn’t produce as expected. Just like in poker, no one likes to hear about bad beat stories.

I have repeated myself many times in the past, and last week was the first concrete example. In the business of forecasting, no one is correct every time. There will always be a margin of error.

I was close to not writing any article this week as I just didn’t find any sense of satisfaction in my week 7 defeats. But, as I was watching the World Series coverage on ESPN, the baseball analyst and expert, Tim Kurkjian was giving his predictions for who would win between the Royals and the Giants. Before he made his prediction he admitted that he was 0-8 this year on picking the winners. He got both wild card games wrong and every series leading up to the World Series. Not only did he admit this to the entire viewing public, but he smiled and said “….and this is what has made this playoffs so much better than any other playoffs in the recent years. Winners that no one ever expected.”

I too smiled as the other sportscasters poked fun at his inability to predict the correct winner. What is great about poker, sports, or daily fantasy is the ability that on any given day, someone that may not be as knowledgeable or as experienced or as talented as the rest of the competition can still come out with a victory. It’s what makes it so much damn fun! And it’s also what draws in new competition knowing that sometimes all it takes is a little Andrew. Luck.

Whenever I hear someone complain about a bad beat in poker, I always say the same thing; “If it weren’t for bad beats, there would be no poker.” The same is true for daily fantasy sports.

All hope is not lost, I’m here to stay and I’m giving my week 8 picks for yet another Millionaire Maker! Also, the Lions Falcons game starts at 9:30 am so it’s not included in the Millionaire Maker, thus I will not be including any picks from that game.

 

Quarterback

 Drew Brees DK $8,100
This is the cheapest he’s been all year and he’s thrown for over 340 yards each of the last three games. Can we all say “3 point bonus”? The matchup isn’t the easiest but the Packers offense has been so sharp lately I have to assume the game will be high scoring with the Saints playing from behind. Jimmy Graham should be getting closer to 100% and both Marques Colston and Kenny Stils showed up in the box score last week. Side note, I like Rodgers slightly more than Brees, but he is $900 more and with this week you will need every dollar as I do not see very many cheap punt plays at the moment. This could change depending on the weekend injury update.

Carson Palmer DK $6,500
Oddly enough this is also the cheapest price for Palmer all year. He has been consistent but hasn’t quite had that huge game. I think this week’s matchup against the Eagles could be just that. We all know Chip Kelly runs the fastest offense in the galaxy and this proves well for his opponents as well, at least from a fantasy perspective. The Cardinals have tons of receiving weapons and even Ellington is a better pass catcher than he is a between-the-blocks runner. I think both Palmer’s floor and ceiling are fantastic given his price.

Honorable Mention: Cam Newton DK $6,600, Tony Romo DK $7,400

 

Running Backs

Le’Veon Bell DK 6,300
Sticking with the trend of “the cheapest he’s been all year”, Bell after a huge week 7 on MNF is back at home against a middle of the road Indy run defense. I really have no explanation for why he is so cheap all of a sudden. He still looks like the most elusive runner in the NFL (other than Murray) and he is consistently utilized in the passing game.  He has only scored two touchdowns all year but I have to assume that just means he’s more likely to find pay dirt for the remainder of the season.

Jamaal Charles DK $6,700
It’s a full blown pandemic. Yes, this is the cheapest he’s been all year. Why? No flippin idea. He played electric (pun) last week against the Chargers and has no effects from the crushing Flowers (oxymoron) hit, even though he admitted to seeing “lightning bugs” (irony) after the shot. He is the focal point of their offense and will always see 20+ touches as long as he’s healthy. I wouldn’t play him in cash leagues considering his health risk but his ceiling is off the charts so he’s an obvious GPP play.

Honorable Mention: Jerick McKinnon DK $4,900 Arian Foster DK $8,400, Matt Forte DK $8,800, Anthony Dixon $3,400

 

Wide Receivers

Ty Hilton DK $6,800
He’s been a beast all year and Reggie Wayne is officially out for week 8. He’s by no means overpriced and will assuredly see 10+ targets in this one. Enough said.

Dez Bryant DK $6,900
Another guy who dropped $600 from last week even after a dominating performance. I honestly believe Murray’s 100+ yards streak comes to end this week. Washington has been stingy against the run and I think they really focus on stopping Murray before all else. This leaves Bryant as the offensive heartbeat. Additionally, Washington has been atrocious against the pass and wide receivers, last week against the Titans doesn’t count.

Michael Floyd DK $4,900
If I like Palmer then I have to like Floyd. Michael has had 100 yards or a score in every game Palmer has started this year and as mentioned before the opportunities should be there given the matchup. He is a superior talent at his position and yet his price does not reflect this at all.

Honorable Mention: Eric Decker DK $4,600 Mike Evans DK $4,500, Mohamed Sanu DK $5,600, Doug Baldwin $4,700, Steve Smith SR. $5,600

 

Tight Ends

Jordan Reed DK $4,000
The best match up for a tight end on paper, the Dallas Cowboys. I was surprised to see how low his price was even after a relatively unproductive week 7. He still has 5 for 54 which at his price is just under 3.0 value. A much better match up in a game where they will no doubt be playing from behind, what more can you ask for?

Dwayne Allen DK $3,900
As stated earlier, Reggie Wayne will be inactive and the additional targets should go to Hilton and this guy, Mr. Allen. I’ve seen a fair amount of Colts action this year and Allen really fits that new-age TE mold where he can run routes like a WR but truck guys like a linebacker. The best part is he is an integral part of the red-zone offense. His biggest weakness was lack of targets which shouldn’t be an issue this week.

Honorable Mention: Delanie Walker DK 4,300, Jermaine Gresham DK $3,700, Zach Ertz DK $3,200

 

Defense

Miami Dolphins DK $3,300
Boy I love picking the Dolphins here, mainly because they are in a battle for the top spot in the AFC east and get to play their in-state rivals who have won one game all year and have allowed the most points to opposing defenses all year. Also, I’ve been a fan since I was six back in the Tecmo Super Bowl Days. Obviously the Jags are playing “better” football after their first win of the year but so are the Dolphins as they completely shut down the potent offense of the bears last week.

Minnesota Vikings DK $2,600
These are two teams that just can’t score the ball, so I can’t expect much offense from either side. However, the Vikings defense has actually played quite well all year. Minus that Thursday debacle at Green Bay, they have only allowed 17 points in each of the last two games with 4 and 6 sacks. This was against slightly more formidable opponents than the lowly Tampa Bay Bucs, who may be without their best WR in Vincent Jackson. They are a defined punt price at 2.6K and should create some extra cap room if you are willing to take a chance on them.

Honorable Mention: Dallas Cowboys DK $3,000, Detroit Lions DK $3,400

I have a strange feeling about this week and I’m calling a top 100 finish in the Millionaire Maker for the first time all year. Follow me at twitter @brycemcvay.