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Andrew Luck
No doubt that he's turing in a season to remember, and it's only six weeks in. Luck continues to dominate on the offensive side of the ball and faces a Cincy squad ranked 22nd in the league against the pass, allowing more than 250 yards/ game through the air. Luck is working with a number of different weapons, and he has by far the most attempts for a quarterback in the red zone this season with 48. (The next highest is Cutler with 37.) Getting that kind of opportunity in close is exactly what we are looking for in ScoreStreak where opportunity trumps almost every other piece of the decision making pie considering we aren't working at all with salaries. Very much a chalk play, but with good reason.
Aaron Rodgers
It's close for me between he and Peyton, and honestly I'm not really going out on a limb with either one. But if most things are about equal then I'll take the Rodgers for a couple of reasons. He has the far better matchup against the Panthers who rank 26th in the league in passing defense. Rodgers might not see the overall volume of Manning, but I trust him to throw a little more in the red zone because the Packers just have no real threat in the ground game whereas Ronnie Hillman could prove to be somewhat of an answer for the Broncos. That could look bad for me later, but I just suspect Rodgers' will see an uptick in his 57% completion percentage in the red zone and collect an extra TD this week.
Demarco Murray
Hitting close to 160 all purpose yards is no easy feat for someone not involved in the special teams return game (though projecting those yards is no cake walk). But if anyone has a solid chance to do it this week it's Murray. In terms of raw usage, it's tough to find a guy getting more of his team's workload than Murray. His last two games he's averaging thirty carries and six receptions. I don't suspect that changes too dramatically against the Giants. The Cowboys have leaned heavily on Murray and the Giants are coming off a week in which they were shredded by LeSean McCoy. The Giants rank 22nd in the league in opponent yards/ attempt in the running game. And that's including having faced stalwarts like Alfred Blue and Steven Jackson. Murray could very well run them into oblivion. He has close to 150 more all purpose yards than the next closest guy in the NFL and until he's injured or the Cowboys show a little restraint I think you can keep trotting him out there.
Andre Ellington
Probably a little off-board, but Ellington is a guy our system is loving on this week. He's facing a Raider team giving up close to a league worst, 150 yards per game on the ground. And with last place Green Bay playing no RB Carolina, there's strong reason to suspect the Raiders will occupy the bottom rung in rushing defense after this week. Ellington is no superstar, but he should see at least 20 carries in this one considering the opponent and is involved in the passing game as well averaging about four receptions per game. I really like Ellington in ScoreStreak as a moderate separation play. You won't see his name much in your opponent's lineups, but his matchup is as good as anyone this week.
Jordy Nelson
Julio Jones
In the ScoreStreak format there are most definitely nuances, especially when choosing some players around the margins. But at times it makes sense to go chalk all the way. These guys are the case for the chalk. They are neck and neck for the most targets per game, each with over 11. That's an insanely high rate and Nelson has that per game average even with the game against the Vikings in which he saw only three looks in a blowout. Take that game away (which isn't fair really, but whatever, it's my website) and he's averaging 13 targets per game. In a system where we are simply honing in on the top-end talent, it really doesn't make sense to fade this kind of production. I'd probably roll with Nelson over Jones simply because I do think he sees more looks over the long term. Both should be 1-2 in your ScoreStreak receptions because of volume plain and simple.
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