Is it me, or is the daily fantasy football season just flying by? Only 10 weeks left to win untold million! Eek! I have to stop thinking about it and just get to the picks.
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Colin Kaepernick - FD 7800 DK 6500 DD 13750 DFSTR 6700
I grudgingly followed our projection system by playing Kaepernick in a decent amount of leagues in week 6. Needless to say, I'm glad I did. He delivered his best game of the season by a mile, breaking the 300 yard barrier and throwing touchdowns to three different receivers. Coming into the Monday Night game the Rams were among the league's best at preventing the forward pass, but Colin and his band of merry receivers made them look like a Pop Warner squad. So what changes for week 7? Well, Kaepernick will square off against a middle of the road Denver passing D in the game with the week's highest total. The uncertainty around the San Francisco running game (27 carries for 54 yards against a crap St. Louis run D) rates to give Kaepernick increasing opportunity to prove his fantasy relevancy.
Andrew Luck - FD 10000 DK 9700 DD 17800 DFSTR 9000
When we weren't looking, Andrew Luck seized the "most reliable fantasy quarterback" crown. Luck has thrown for 300+ yards in all but one game, and 3 or more touchdowns in all but 2. He's spreading the ball around, and holding on to his gains in completion percentage even as defenses try and bait the Colts into using Trent Richardson. While the Bengals were looking like a tough match-up 3 weeks ago, they've since allowed bounce-back games to both Tom Brady and Cam Newton. I'm counting on Luck for another huge performance here.
Joe Flacco - FD 7700 DK 7700 DD 13900 DFSTR 6600
We gave you Flacco last week while wondering if he had the upside to carry you in GPP formats. Well, what do you know? Flacco posts the highest TD total of the season, and did his best Tom Brady throwing TDs to guys you never heard of impression. Most encouraging was the Ravens trusting Flacco with the ball in the red zone. All four of Flacco's first quarter touchdown passes came inside the Red Zone, and the Ravens seem to trust him with the keys to the kingdom when things matter most. And while I wouldn't say he has a "better" match-up this week - it's hard to have a better match-up than the hapless Bucs - the Falcons are solidly the league's 4th most generous passing defense, so Flacco should get plenty of opportunity here as well.
Cam Newton - FD 8400 DK 8200 DD 13800 DFSTR 7800
Whoa. This was one of those weeks where it was better to be signed up for our lineup construction tool than it was to be a reader of the picks articles. Fed up with increasing mediocrity from the running back position, the Panthers turned a finally healthy Cam Newton loose on the Bengals, and he made it worth their while. While I don't think we can pencil him in to outscore most of the league's RBs with his legs, those running totals are a very encouraging sign. It looked like Newton was back at Auburn. When the Bengals attempted to take away his legs, he beat them by passing it off to receiving targets with whom he is gaining an increased comfort. The Pack have above average stats against the pass this year, but they've also faced 3 teams that can barely pass (Miami, the Jets, and Minny) and caught Detroit with a banged up Megatron.
Russell Wilson - FD 8500 DK 6800 DD 14600 DFSTR 7100
Well, my bravado in calling Wilson the safest QB ever in our week 6 picks isn't looking especially prescient, but I'm still feeling him for this week's tilt against the Rams. Here's why. Wilson is basically a more efficient version of Kaepernick with a bit less upside. After an embarrassing offensive performance against the Cowboys, I think Pete Carroll will tap into his USC days and give Wilson full run to regain the confidence of his QB and receivers. Keep your eye on this one, and don't let the Rams year to date numbers against the pass sway you more than what you saw last Monday night.
Aaron Rodgers - FD 9700 DK 8800 DD 17750 DFSTR 8900
In the "never draft a defense early" category, the Panthers have been a total disappointment on defense this season. They've allowed the 8th most passing yards in the league, and couldn't get a stop against Andy Dalton when their life depended on it. They've been awful by essentially every defensive metric this season - points, total yards allowed, DVOA, and Rodgers will be in prime position to make the most of it. Plus, anyone who fakes a spike is awesome.
Le'Veon Bell - FD 8400 DK 6600 DD 13750 DFSTR 8100
Bell was the sore subject around the DFSR war room on Sunday, as Doug and I had more than our fair shares of him, especially on DraftKings. Well, we're doubling down this week, baby! Considering how terrible this game was for Steel City, it's actually laudable that Bell managed to put up 105 total yards on 22 touches. One has to think that the Steelers will see that the running game was working and the passing game wasn't, and it won't surprise anyone if they take to the ground against a Texans team that has a literal monster who attacks the pass rusher.
DeMarco Murray - FD 9400 DK 9600 DD 15800 DFSTR 9000
In some ways, I can't believe our projection system continues to like Murray as the prices hit the stratosphere. But what do you want? They can say whatever they want, but the Cowboys are using Demarco Murray like a rental car, determined to eek out that last mileage at the vehicle's expense. And after watching Shady McCoy go from a 1.5 yard per carry fantasy killer to a renaissance fantasy stud, it stands to reason that Murray will do much of the same. His 19 red zone carries build in a ton of upside as well, in case you didn't already know that.
Ahmad Bradshaw - FD 6600 DK 4700 DD 9700 DFSTR 4900
Haters gon' hate, but we'll say it again. The touchdowns are not a fluke. Bradshaw continues to be the more productive half of his running back platoon, and continues to be Andrew Luck's safety valve in the 5-15 yard line range. He's definitely not a safety play by any stretch, but playing Bradshaw can help you afford guys like Forte, Murray, or Lynch, whose prices are in the stratosphere. The Bengals have allowed 141 yards on the ground per game this season, too, so don't let their defensive reputation scare you off.
Andre Ellington - FD 7100 DK 6500 DD 12300 DFSTR 6900
While Ellington hasn't been incredibly dynamic on a yards per touch basis this season, he's seeing a lot of usage in both the passing and the running game. Especially in PPR formats, Ellington could have a huge game against an Oakland team that has allowed the 2nd most yards per game on the ground this season. Keep in mind that we're not looking for a grind it out performance from Ellington - we're looking for a few monster plays. While the fantasy elite are all seeing their prices head skyward, Ellington is a cheap option with arguably as much upside as any of them this week.
Giovani Bernard - FD 8900 DK 7800 DD 14050 DFSTR 7400
Well, the cat's out of the bag as it pertains to Giovani Bernard's usage. Just like we told you in our week 6 picks article, Bernard is much more the low to mid 20s touches per game guy that you saw in the beginning of the season than the mid-teens touches guy you saw in weeks 3 and 5. While the Colts have been middle of the pack against the run this year, the Bengals would far prefer to control the clock than hand the reins over to Andy Dalton. They'll use Bernard early, and if Cinci can hang, late as well.
Andre Williams - FD 6300 DK 4400 DD 8900 DFSTR 4800
With prices climbing northward for fellow week 6 darling Branden Oliver, Andre Williams has become something of an afterthought. While Dallas had an impressed with over the 'Hawks, their run defense continued to look suspect, allowing 6 yards per carry against the Seattle running backs. If the Giants continue to pound the ball on the ground inside the red zone, Andre Williams will remain a guy who is a week away from being the best value play at the position.
Want to see who else our projection system likes? Take a three-day trial or check out our week 7 sleepers and stacks article, coming out later this week.
Julio Jones - FD 8700 DK 7800 DD 13150 DFSTR 9000
Oy. With all of the savings available at running back last week, I played the "safe" Jones in a ton of my leagues, and paid the price. So what happened? Some reports have Jones tweaking the same foot he bumped in week 4 (not the foot he's had surgery on in the past), but this will also just happen in football sometimes. Jones was still targeted 12 times over the course of the game, so if something was wrong, it wasn't like he was out there in a Megatron-esque decoy role. Keep an eye on the NFL's targets leader as the week progresses, but if reports are positive, I'm all in on Jones in a game where the Falcons should have trouble running the football.
Jordy Nelson - FD 8900 DK 8200 DD 14150 DFSTR 9000
We gave you Nelson in the week 6 picks, and he delivered exactly what we were expecting. 16 targets, 9 catches, and a score. I'm excited to play him against a team that made Mohammed Sanu look like a modern day Jerry Rice. Are you? The huge Jordy game is coming. If not this week, soon.
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Kelvin Benjamin - FD 6700 DK 5600 DD 10950 DFSTR 6700
It's feeling eerily like a repeat of my picks for last week, but what can I say? Benjamin saw his usual high volume of targets, and while he didn't break any of the huge plays he's capable of, he did find the end zone, and continues to be Cam's favorite target. There's a lot of safety in this price, and more upside than what last week's 7 yards per catch would suggest. You're seeing Benjamin's lowest prices of the season from here on out - I suggest you capitalize.
T.Y. Hilton - FD 7600 DK 7000 DD 12500 DFSTR 7300
Reggie Wayne - FD 7000 DK 4900 DD 11150 DFSTR 5100
I was as surprised as anyone to see TY Hilton's name topping our projection system's rankings for week 7, figuring that the price bumps would deflate his value. While that is the case on DraftKings, I still like him a great deal on FanDuel. As for Wayne - he appears to be the forgotten man in the pricing modules this week, but his 9 targets suggest that Luck hasn't forgotten about him. He could just as easily be the guy with the bigger week this week, though Hilton is clearly the guy with the transcendent upside.
Anquan Boldin - FD 6300 DK 4500 DD 8750 DFSTR 4600
It seemed like Boldin was open on every play against St. Louis, and he remains very reasonably priced as the 49ers take on the Broncos this week. He's not tied for the team's lead in red zone targets, and it's clear that trust is building between he and Kaepernick even while trust wanes between the QB and Michael Crabtree and his questionable health.
Brandon Marshall - FD 7700 DK 6300 DD 12600 DFSTR 7600
Marshall is one of the most fascinating plays for me this week because his prices are totally inappropriate. His pricing last week made sense, because we still didn't know if he was healthy yet. Now that we have seen he's back at full health and capable of big plays (including his 50 yarder where he was dragged down by the goal line), his price probably should have crept into the mid 8000s on FanDuel. He's also sliding in and taking a lot of those targets that Martellus Bennett was getting in the end zone. HUGE upside for Marshall, and an underrated amount of safety to go with it.
Andre Holmes - FD 6000 DK 4800 DD 10150 DFSTR 5800
A guy we gave you in the sleepers article last week, and boy did he pay off. It's tempting to write Holmes off as one of these "out of nowhere" guys who winds up heading back there, but here's the thing: the guy is on the field ALL THE TIME. He's playing more than 90% of his team's snaps, and the Raiders are simply going to be in a position to throw the ball. And that Cardinals defense? Owned by the pass this year. 318 yards a game allowed in the air. Not saying the Raiders will get there, but it's clear that Holmesis going to get a ton of love in both the possession and down field aspects of the game.
Jordan Reed - FD 5400 DK 5000 DD 8750 DFSTR 5800
The Redskins have been crushing it at the tight end position all season, and you can still get Reed at prices below the other elite TEs. DO IT. Reed managed 8 receptions for 92 yards on 11 targets in just more than 50% of the team's snaps. As he gets more involved, there are HUGE games ahead that most tight ends simply aren't capable of. One has to think that his massive bulk will also be a nice target for Cousins in the end zone, where Jackson and Garcon likely leave the team wanting more. The Titans are the 22nd ranked defense against the pass in the league, if that sways you any.
Rob Gronkowski - FD 7500 DK 6700 DD 13100 DFSTR
Gronk has Brady's confidence, and he has mine as well. If he's going to play 80% of the team's snaps, he should continue to build upon the 10 target average he's seen since his return. With the running game looking like a huge question mark, it's very tempting to just spend on Gronkowski against a Jets defense that just got lit up by Julius Thomas.
Greg Olsen - FD 7200 DK 5400 DD 11100 DFSTR 5500
We recommended him in each of the 2 weeks, and in each of those weeks, he's delivered. Like Gronkowski, Olsen has managed an average of 10 targets over that time, and is the Panther's go to man when they get down in scoring territory. Listen - there's no question that Gronk has greater upside on a similar price point - but Olsen should be a pretty good separation play if you're looking to make up ground by going against the grain.
Jared Cook - FD 5200 DK 3600 DD 7500 DFSTR 4200
Cook is a fascinating guy to take a look at if you want to separate yourself from the pack. He's been targeted the 5th most of any tight end on a per game basis, and the % of receptions he's reeled in on those targets is uncharacteristically low for him. Austin Davis is actually an above average quarterback in terms of completion %, so this number looks headed for some positive regression. If he continues to see 8-10 targets per game - there's a breakout game coming at some point. Will that be against the Seahawks? I have no idea, but you have to figure that the Rams will be playing from behind, and that the Hawks are aware of Brian Quick's rise to prominence by now.
Just a strategy note on kickers, since I figure I'll share what's working well for me this season.
I've been taking kickers against teams that don't have spectacular defenses in decent weather conditions. I don't look at the kicker's individual "skill" at all, just opportunity. Typically kicker will be the very last spot I fill, and while there are situations I'll avoid (I wouldn't play kickers against Seattle, for instance, or any team that's a 6.5 point or more underdog), I think you can justify playing just about any other kicker in a GPP format especially. Don't sweat this too much - just pick a guy that fits in with the rest of what you want to do and go from there.
Cleveland Browns
A week fresh off of embarrassing the Steelers, the Browns get the Jags worst ranked "offense." The Jaguars have allowed a league worst 27 sacks this year, and the inability to protect the QB tends to be the thing most highly correlated with turnovers. As always, the Jags are expected to play from behind in this one, and if they're throwing, opposing defenses are happy.
Seattle Seahawks
Possibly burying the lead a little bit on this one, but this is such an incredibly chalk play that it feels weird even writing it. Sure, the Seattle defense hasn't been the Seattle defense this year. But have you seen the schedule they've had? Yowza. They've played some beasting offenses, and have done pretty well, all things considered. The Rams have been the most generous team to opposing DST's all season, though, so I'm smelling a turnaround game here. Along with everyone else.
Buffalo Bills
If you want to stray out of pure chalk territory with me for a bit, consider the Buffalo Bills. The Vikings have allowed the 2nd most sacks in the league, and the Bills are tied with the 2nd most sacks in the league when they're on the defensive side of the ball. The Vikings don't know what they're doing in any phase of the game right now, and while McKinnon would represent an upgrade over Asiata, they'll still struggle to do much of anything against an underrated Bills D.
Minnesota Vikings
Now we're really going off board, but hear me out. The Bills have managed just the 25th most offensive yards per game this year, and you're getting the Vikes CHEAP. Sure, you could spend $1,100 more (on FD) and get the Pats - but that's the difference between an elite #1 WR like Julio Jones and a more speculative guy like Brandon Marshall. I like this better in a double up format, but if you're sitting on a great lineup with not a lot to spend, the Vikings could be a great play.
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Great podcast! Keep up the good work.
Thanks, Rob!