Daily fantasy football picks for Week 6 - DraftKings

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“44 ladies that’s me!! WOOOOOOOO Gonna’ get some cold cuts today!” (Geico Commercial gets me every time).

I can only imagine the celebration Ickey Woods would be doing if he were in our position. 24 hours from the second installment of the DraftKings Millionaire Maker. I can hardly contain myself! I will admit, when watching the games on Sunday, my go-to celebration dance is not the Ickey Woods shuffle, but the Victor Cruz salsa (this goes way back to my first year of playing daily fantasy, Ramsey you know what’s up).

I promised myself I wouldn’t write a giant introduction discussing strategies or the current events of the daily fantasy world and for once, I am going to keep that promise. Without further ado, here are my DraftKings week 6 daily fantasy picks (P.S. I already wrote my Thursday strategy piece and it’s a good one; so if you like my ramblings then make sure to check it out next week).

 

Week 6 Picks: Redemption – Take Two of the Millionaire Maker

 

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan $DK 8,600
I refuse to give Peyton Manning DK $9,400 his own paragraph…so I’ll just write about him under Matt Ryan’s header. Manning is the most expensive QB (again) by $400 and rightfully so. A Great matchup and essentially no running game to take away from his stat line. If you can fit his enormous salary in your lineup then I’m not going to fault you. With that said, I think Matt Ryan has an an equally good situation and is $800 less than Peyton. In Ryan’s home games this year, he is averaging 367 passing yards and 3 touchdowns. Guess where this week’s game is? Matty Ice takes on a middle of the road defense in the Chicago Bears where the Falcons are 3 point favorites with an over/under of 55! Vegas expects the Falcons to put up 29 points and I have to assume Ryan will have a hand on at least 3 of their 4 touchdowns.

Aaron Rodgers DK $8,400
A key to being a successful forecaster is to realize your bias and not let it affect your predictions. Well, I am trying my hardest to overcome my love for the Dolphins with this pick. Rodgers has been lights out (11 TDs, 0 INTs) since his week 1 loss against the Seahawks. He played last Thursday (only three quarters in the blowout of the Vikings) so he’s had a long week of studying film (See Davante Adams below). He has a top three receiving corps at his disposal, and Eddie Lacy has finally brought some balance back to the offense.

On paper, the Dolphins have been less than forgiving against opposing QB’s (in the top 12 of fewest points allowed), but who have the really played? A dysfunctional Brady week 1, E.J. Manual (benched) Week 2, Alex Smith week 3 (who threw for 3 touchdowns), and a combination of Derek Carr and Matt McGloin week 4. The Fins did have their bye this past week so they too have had time to prepare but in the end, the Packers are already in mid-season form a third of the way through the season.

Kirk Cousins DK 6,700
Cousins is my sneaky QB play of the week. He is flying under the radar as most people cannot forget how bad he was against the Giants two weeks ago. He gets an Arizona defense that was gashed by Peyton Manning last week and is now without Calais Campbell (thanks to the chop block heard round the world). I believe the Redskins come away with a road victory and Cousins will play a key role.

In general, I think I will be paying for a QB this week, in both GPP and cash formats. I don’t see any great match ups for the cheap, under the radar QB’s (e.g. Austin Davis last week). I have also considered Jay Cutler DK $8,000, Eli Manning DK $7,800, and Nick Foles $6,800. If you simply can’t resist taking a cheap QB, I think Blake Bortles DK $5,700 has the best shot to produce value considering the match up and the possibility that all of his wide receivers will be active this week. He will also have the benefit of an extremely low utilization rate considering how poorly he has performed over the last two weeks.

Finally, I would like to add that I wrote about the Romo-Dez stack and the Brady-Gronk stack in my Thursday article. After further deliberation, I am no longer as high on these stacks or either of these QB’s. I still love Gronk for his price, but would rather aim my stacks at the higher scoring games like Atlanta-Chicago and Philadelphia-New York. (Note, I am constantly researching and things change on a daily basis. It’s the nature of the beast so I will be the first to let you know my altered perceptions. This is not a weakness, this is good forecasting, thanks Nate Silver…If Brady kills it, I told ya so!)

 

Running Backs

Branden Oliver DK $5,500
If you've been following me on Twitter (@brycemcvay) you already know I love Mr. Martini. I watched last week’s Chargers game intently as I had a lot of Philip Rivers action. I was happy with the performance from Rivers, and astonished by the play of Oliver. I was praying that I was the only person on the planet that saw the game but clearly I was not considering the public hype over Oliver following his showcase. As everyone reports, he did look like the reincarnation of Darren Sproles…except better.

Every week I’ll find at least one guy that I get excited about when finding out his price for the upcoming week. Oliver jumped up $2,500, but remains in the same price range as C.J. Spiller, Shane Vereen, Ben Tate, and the aforementioned Darren Sproles. I think he has a higher floor and ceiling when compared to the rest of these plays. I am very curious to see how many people will be playing him, I think DF-ers that do their research will be all over him, while the DF layman will gloss over his name. I really like him in double up formats and will be throwing him in some MM lineups as well. Stay updated on Donald Brown’s status; if he does somehow become active by Sunday then I wouldn’t be quite as bullish on Oliver.

Marshawn Lynch DK $8,600
It seems simple, but sometimes a good question to ask yourself is, “If price wasn’t a variable, who would I pick?” For me, Lynch is my RB answer to this question. The Cowboys are really bad against the run, something that I feel people are overlooking. I think the Seahawks game plan will be to exploit this deficiency and naturally Skittles will be the benefactor. I think Lynch has the highest probability to achieve the 100 yard rushing bonus and the highest probability to score 2+ touchdowns.

He obviously won’t see as many targets as a Matt Forte DK $8,800, or Giovani Bernard DK $7,700, but I believe this fact will keep Lynch’s utilization rate rather low. (I name dropped those other two because they would be my number 2 and number 3 if price didn’t matter). One final warning, if you are playing Lynch a lot, you have to be refreshing rotoworld, paying attention to the inactives and any other information on this game right up to kickoff. Lynch has a history of back issues and there is always a small chance he doesn’t play after his pre-game warm ups. He sat out the first drive of last week and he’s unexpectedly sat out entire games in the past.

Darren McFadden DK $3,700
Run DMC hasn’t been fantasy relevant for a long time, although it seemed like just yesterday he was a top five pick in yearly snake draft leagues. This pick is much more a cash recommendation than a GPP one. At his price tag, he needs only 11.1 points to achieve 3.0 value. His lowest scoring total has been 10.5 over the past three weeks and he’s had 4 catches each of the last two games. As long as he’s the starter, I think 11 points if a very safe floor and that alone is all we need. Joique Bell, who is the same price, also seems to be a safe value play, but for some reason any time a running back for Detroit gets the lion’s share (pun), they greatly underperform. Continue to monitor this backfield as Reggie Bush has not yet been ruled out. If he is, I am fine with either play but I think McFadden is the contrarian pick over Bell who will be played everywhere.

Storm Johnson DK $3,000
I would feel pride-less if I didn't mention this UCF graduate creating an all-Knight backfield for the Jaguars. Gerhart has finally been ruled out for week 6 after suffering a setback in practice. That leaves Storm and Denard Robinson to compete for carries. I have actually liked what I’ve seen from the QB/WR/RB ex-wolverine, but his stat lines have been extremely underwhelming and all signs point to the Jags giving Storm a chance to lead all backs in touches. Tennessee has been Swiss cheese against the run.

I think the top tier running backs have some great match ups this week, however, unlike the QB position I feel there are some solid value plays at the RB position. The ones listed above as well as Andre Williams DK $5,400, Andre Ellington DK $5,100, Frank Gore DK $4,800, Bishop Sankey DK $3,500, and Jerick McKinnon DK $3,400 are high on my list. Ronnie Hillman DK $3,000 should be considered but I think his upside is low and quite frankly no one knows what’s going to happen this week in the Denver backfield. I think he has all the makings of a perfect “fade” play.

 

Wide Receivers

Julio Jones DK 8,400
Demaryius Thomas DK $8,000
Antonio Brown DK $7,900
Julio Jones will likely see the most targets of the three. Demaryius Thomas has the juiciest of match ups. Antonio Brown has a knack for shredding the Browns and still has his 5 receptions for 50+ yards streak alive…You have to assume Julio will be doubled all game. Demaryius Thomas could see very little second half action when Denver is pummeling NYJ. Ok, I can’t think of a negative for Antonio to continue the pattern, but the idea is “I have no idea which one of these guys will have the best game”. I could surely speculate, but the only thing we can agree on is all three of them are elite talents. Here’s a thought…Play Jordy Nelson DK $7,700. He can easily be included in the list above and may be the least utilized of all.

Ultimately, the beauty of our game is that you can’t play studs at every position so let me give you a few less expensive WR’s to fill the gaps.

Wes Welker DK $5,600
Wes Welker?! He still plays football? In fact he does, and he’s quietly had 9 targets each of last two weeks hauling in 14 of the 18 targets. After a week where Thomas, Thomas & Sanders (sounds like a law firm) erupt and are now properly priced as tier 1 players, Welker remains relatively cheap. He has yet to see a red zone target and I just can’t believe this trend will continue. Welker and Manning are “sports friends” (if you haven’t seen Yahoo! Sports Friends stop reading my article immediately and google it, seriously). I think Welker will be played by very few this week and has a great chance to return value and then some.

Brandon Marshall DK $6,300
I’ll keep this brief since I already made my case for him in my Thursday article, but I like him that much I figured why not give him extra credit. I think he has the biggest game of all the Bears receiving options and is the least expensive he’s been all year by a mile.

Jarius Wright DK $3,200
Andre Holmes DK $3,000
Davante Adams DK $3,000
All three of these guys are the definition of “punt” but I think all three will find the necessary 9.0 - 9.6 points to produce 3.0 value. Of the three, I believe I like Holmes the most due to his circumstances. His team will be playing from behind and will be forced to throw. Jarius Wright has lead his team in targets the last two week and he went off in Teddy Bridgewater’s only start. Aaron Rodgers admitted he continuously sees Adams “getting open when he watches film”. I believe another score for Adams is likely.

 

Tight Ends

I am not going lie, I don’t have a great feel on any of the tight ends this week, other than Gronk-Spike DK $5,800 who I've already plugged in both of my articles this week. He remains my number 1 tight end in both GPP and cash formats.

I think Julius Thomas DK $6,700, Greg Olsen DK $5,700, Martellus Bennett DK $5,500, and Delanie Walker DK $5,300 fall closely under the same tier 1 this week. Naturally, considering the price gap between Thomas and the rest, I will probably try and fade him while playing a mixed variation of the rest. I do prefer Olsen’s and Walker’s match up since the Falcons have yet to give up a touchdown to a tight end (that doesn't mean Bennett won’t get his share of looks in that shootout).

Jordan Cameron DK $3,600
For cash formats, I believe Cameron is an obvious choice. He needs only 10.8 points to achieve 3.0 value and he played almost every snap last week seeing 7 targets, despite nursing a shoulder injury. He’s practiced all week and plays a middle of the road defense against the tight end position. He went for 2-47-0 against the Steelers week 1 but didn't play much of the game as this was when he sustained his injury. He is an intriguing GPP play as well considering his price and his upside as a red-zone threat. All systems go on him this week.

Owen Daniels DK $4,300
His $1,000 increase in price this week should keep him off of many peoples radar, which of course is a good thing. The “Tampa 2” defense is allowing the 7^th most points to opposing tight ends and with the threat of Torrey and Steve Smith, I think the Ravens game plan to attack the middle with Daniels. I watched the Steelers do this first hand with Health Miller who went for 10-85-1 in week 4. Like Cameron, I think Daniels is a sound play in all formats and I don’t think 1-2 scores is unlikely.

 

Defense

San Francisco 49ers DK $3,200
Oddly enough, the Forty-Niners are only the 9th highest priced defense despite being 2nd overall in total yards allowed while playing a St.Louis Rams team that gives up the 2nd most points to opposing defenses. Need I say more? Fine, this game is the Monday night tilt and we know the Niners are an outstanding primetime team. They are easily my number 1 defense this week.

Minnesota Vikings DK $2,500
Minnesota is the second cheapest defensive play this week only ahead of the New York Jets playing Denver. The Vikings on the other hand are playing a Detroit Lions team that is depleted at running back and will most likely be without the basking shark, Calvin Johnson. Last week the Lions could only manage 14 points against the Bills at home and Stafford has been getting sacked at an alarming rate, 4 and 6 the last two weeks. I think this a great position to punt and hopefully will be overlooked by many.

I have also considered the San Diego Chargers DK $3,400, Baltimore Ravens DK $3,200, and the Denver Broncos $3,100. Yet, since all of these defenses fall in the same price range of the 49ers I will be going with them more often than not. Of course, defensive touchdowns are what make the number 1 defensive play of the week and those are all but impossible to predict so having variation at this position isn’t frowned upon.

 

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Every morning I wake up and check my phone for new Twitter followers…Just kidding, but seriously, I do. Not. Whatever. Hit me up for questions or if you want to make fun of me, it’s all good, I love the limelight @brycemcvay.

I am investing heavily in this week’s millionaire maker and if I win you’ll never hear from me again! Joking, I love this gig and I love all of you. Smile, enjoy the all you can breathe oxygen, and thank God for creating mankind who then created Sunday and Football…and the wheel and a bunch of other cool stuff.