Daily fantasy football picks for Week 5- DraftKings

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It has been three and a half years since I played in my first daily fantasy football league contest. I heard about daily fantasy (DF) while listening to the XM radio station dedicated to fantasy sports (what a sweet radio gig). The initial week I deposited $100 and fumbled through the user interface of DraftStreet (which was bought by DraftKings this year). I had no idea what I was getting into, but within 30 minutes I knew I had found my next obsession. My first week was as close to perfect as possible, winning every contest I entered. Yet, even a perfect week does not equate to much profit when investing a meager $100 and sticking to double up and triple up formats. I would have scoffed at the idea of making 10 - 15 thousand dollars in a single day playing fantasy sports but soon realized that this was a reality for some DF sharks.

It wasn’t till my second year of playing that I discovered the chance that a single lucky soul would have a chance to win a million bucks in a single DF contest. This blew my mind and still does to this very day. Not just the fact that a person could make a million in a single week from playing something as childish as fantasy football, but the extreme level of stress and excitement that comes on Monday Night Football. No matter the score, every last second of the game counts for us DF junkies. So here we are, week 5 of the 2014 NFL season, and DraftKings is offering a single contest where the winner gets, yes, $1,000,000 American dollars. With a possible field of 92,400 entrants, where some DK high-rollers are entering upwards of 100 to 200 times (only $27 per entry), this event is sure to attract every level of fantasy football fanatic. The difference between first place and second place can be measured in two very distinct ways. One could say the difference is $900,000 as the second place prize money of $100,000 is dwarfed by the aforementioned million to first. Or, even more spine-chilling, the difference between first and second is a single reception, a single fumble, a single holding call, or a single botched snap resulting in negative rush yards. The possibilities are endless as to how this week’s DraftKings Millionaire Maker will be determined, but one thing is for sure: this is going to be one hellacious week of football. I hope my couch is ready.

Let’s recap Week 4 real quick, there were some big wins and some big stinkers. I whiffed on Cordarrelle Patterson, Jeremy Kerley, and Donald Brown. Rivers was my most played QB and he performed more than admirably. Eddie Lacy was my biggest dud considering how much I played him, even though he did find pay dirt once (Should have been twice if it weren’t for a holding call nullifying his second score). Matt Asiata was my second most played RB and was the leader of the pack for RB’s this week. Antonio Brown was my most played WR and had a huge game while Jimmy Graham was my TE and he had a very boring game but was able to score a garbage touch in the Cowboys blowout of the Saints, thus salvaging his Sunday night. My biggest mental victory was taking Teddy Bridgewater over Blake Bortles; this was a heated debate amongst DF-ers in week 4 and I wrote about my case for Bridgewater in my Saturday edition. I hated to see him carted off the field in the 4^th, reminding us the danger of playing a fragile QB that relies on his legs. Ultimately, many of these plays were high volume picks among the general DK public resulting in an extremely high week of scoring (I lost a fair share of double ups with scores hovering around 140). These weeks always occur once or twice a year revealing the importance of aiming for guys that are being overlooked by most. I am not all that worried and expect that this week’s Millionaire Maker will draw in a fair amount of new players hopefully creating a bigger pool with newly born minnows. On average, I still believe 125-130 will be the double-up cutoff throughout the year.

Phew, a lot of words and I have yet to even tell you a pick for week 5. I am sure my editor is going to be pleased…This week, I’m doing things a bit different given the circumstances. At each position, I am going to give two players; one of which I believe is a safe double up play (these are my normal selections where “value” is the most vital metric) and one that I believe is a good GPP tournament play (where the probability to be the top performer at their position is the most vital metric) for the Millionaire Maker. Of course, I’ll discuss in detail the reasons for my choices.

Finally, my tip of the week is to consider the effects on teams coming off their bye week. These teams and players will be generally healthier and would have had two weeks to prepare for their opponent. This can affect results on both sides of the ball. As a reminder, Arizona, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, St. Louis, and Seattle were on bye in week 4 while Miami and Oakland are the only teams on bye in week 5.

 

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Week 5 Picks: The Battle of Double-Ups Vs. GPP Tournaments

Quarterback Position

Peyton Manning DK $9,200
Austin Davis DK $5,600
I would bet a fair amount of people don’t know which player I would recommend for double-ups leagues and which I would recommend for GPP tournament leagues. The answer is simple if you understand the concept of value and how to maximize both the floor and the ceiling of your team. First, the answer. I recommend Austin Davis for your double-ups and Peyton Manning for your GPP’s. Now, the why. At Austin’s price tag of 5.6K, he has to total 16.8 points to achieve 3.0 value. Considering the Rams are coming off a bye (tip of the week) and they are playing the Eagles who have been extremely charitable to QB’s all year, I see no QB with a higher probability to achieve a 3.0 value this week. 225 yards and two touchdowns results in 17 points. I give this an 80% chance of occurring. Why such a high probability? The Eagles have allowed 271 passing yards/game and 2.5 passing TDs/game.

On the flip side, Peyton Manning is the most expensive QB of the week and has to tally 27.6 points in order to achieve a 3.0 value. 300+ yards and 3 touchdowns will get Manning to 27 points showing that even a big game doesn't get him to 3.0 value. However, in GPP tournament leagues we don’t care about value. We care about perfection. So although Manning has a smaller probability to achieve value, he has the largest probability to be the highest scoring QB of the week (i.e. the QB atop the perfect lineup). Montee Ball has been an underachieving bum all year so I see no threat of Denver running the ball in the red zone which adds to Manning’s chance of being involved in every Denver score this week.

You may be thinking, my lineup is going to be crap after spending so much on Peyton Manning. However, in a GPP format we look for “boom/bust” players, who have the greatest probability of achieving perfection. Luckily, in the WR/RB/TE positions, these high ceiling/low floor players tend to be less expensive than your consistent, high volume guys. This lends itself to paying for a QB.

One last discussion point which is becoming more and more talked about in the DF world; the percentage at which a player is used by the general public.  In double-up formats, this percentage doesn't really mean much and, in fact, it’s an advantage to have a lineup full of high percentage plays. In a GPP tournament format, the exact opposite is true. Keep in mind, the idea of playing the unpopular picks and “fading” the popular picks does not outweigh the fact that you want to choose the “perfect” player since often times the perfect player is also one of the most played picks. However, you will never set yourself apart from the competition if you continuously make the same picks as everyone else. Simply put, in order to win a GPP you must find that play that no one saw coming. In week 4, a pick like Frank Gore or Eddie Royal would have fit this mold.

 

Running Back Position

C.J. Spiller DK $5,800
Rashad Jennings DK $5,500
After reading about the QB position, I would now bet everyone knows where I am going with this. Jennings is a clear double-up play while C.J. Spiller is a boom or bust GPP tournament choice.

Jennings, who is coming off a disappointing week where his back-up got all the garbage time looks in a blowout victory against the Redskins, is extremely under-priced this week and needs just 16.5 points for 3.0 value. I know it, DK knows it, and your mom knows it. Unless an unexpected injury comes up mid-week, I would give even-money odds on Jennings being the most played running back of the week. He is playing at home against a Falcons run defense that was mangled by the combination of Asiata and McKinnon last week. He gets continued use in the passing game and the giants are playing good football. The Falcons o-line is banged up and I see the Giants dominating this game on both sides of the ball leading to more rushing opportunities for the entire Giants backfield. No need to go any further, he is the value RB of the weekend. Hands down.

Now, for the real meat and potatoes. Why in the hell would anyone recommend C.J. Spiller who costs $5,800, splits carries with Fred Jackson, and is going up against the Detroit Lions (a top three run defense) on the road? No one. No one would recommend C.J. Spiller, and therein lies the answer. He should be played by a very little percentage of people (pretty much only the ones that read this article) and yet will have 8-12 chances both in the running and passing game to break off a long score. He is the epitome of boom or bust and actually has been more consistent than one would think. He’s received 10+ carries in every game this year and has had 3 receptions in 3 of 4 games this year. He has yet to score a touchdown over 10 yards, not surprising considering he has one touchdown all year. It should only be a matter of time before Spiller goes deep. Inevitably, I would never ever play him in a double-up league and he has a better than 50% probability of scoring less than 10 points. If this is the case, consider your $27 a sunk cost, but take solace in that you at least gave yourself a shot at the million with this pick.

 

Wide Receiver Position

Jordan Matthews DK $3,500
Allen Robinson DK $3,000
The wide receiver position for Week 5 is honestly laughable. There is so much value this week I truly did "LOL" when I made my Tuesday Short list (it’s hardly a short list, and I will reveal more of my picks in the Saturday Edition). With this much value, many of the WR picks I would consider great double up plays could also be considered great GPP plays as well. Nonetheless, let us not forget what we are striving for in GPP’s. Perfection! So in a week where some people may over-think this position considering all the value, I still see a guy like Antonio Brown or Calvin Johnson (see injury status) having the greatest probability to be the number overall WR this week. With that said, my two recommendations are both cheap plays but serve two different purposes when played.

Allen Robinson Initially I wrote this well-crafted paragraph as to why Andrew Hawkins is the best cheap double up play this week and it made no sense that he was only $3,500 this week. Hawkins remains a fine pick for double-up formats but I honestly believe Allen Robinson will have a bigger game and is $500 less than Hawkins. Robinson, like Hawkins, will be a popular pick this week without question. The perpetually injured Cecil Shorts will sit out and Marquise Lee continues to ride the pine while recovering from a hammy issue. This leaves both Allen's (Robinson and Hurns) to receive all the WR targets for Jacksonville. Note, even with Shorts active in week 4, Robinson saw 7 targets, second only to Shorts. I don't see Robinson finding the end zone (although it's not impossible) making him a low ceiling pick, but I do think he sees at least 8 targets converting 6 for 70 yards. This equates to 13 points and over 3.0 value. Exactly what we need for a double-up.

My reason for listing Jordan Matthews isn't because I really like anything about him or his match up this week, although the match up isn't awful against the St. Louis Rams. I listed Matthews because he has the ability to score 2 touchdowns any given week and he is the exact same price as the aforementioned Hawkins. I’m just pulling this number out of thin air, but I would give Matthews double the probability of Hawkins when it comes to having 2+ scores any given week. The fact remains that I would also give Matthews the same magnitude of probability when it comes to having less than 5 total points this week. Matthews isn't the only one in this price range that I would give a much greater probability of scoring when compared to Hawkins. Doug Baldwin and Markus Wheaton come to mind. Move up only a few hundred in salary cap to the likes of Rueben Randle and Terrence Williams (he quietly has 4 TDs), both of whom are red zone hogs. Aiming for perfection means aiming for touchdowns. It is beyond rare to see the highest scoring player at given position not have at least one touchdown.

 

Tight End Position

Julius Thomas DK $6,900
Clay Harbor DK $3,000

Is the picture clear yet? I sure hope so. Julius Thomas has a knack for scoring three touchdowns and he is up against a middle of the road Arizona team that is historically bad against the TE position (currently surrendering 6 for 70, on average). Both teams were on bye last week so my tip of the week is somewhat null and void and both teams should have a well-versed game plan coming in to this one. I can’t imagine the Cardinals have a plan to stop every scoring threat of the Broncos and I think Julius is the most match up proof on the team. Beating out Jimmy Graham, I think he has the greatest probability to be the number one TE this week, and other than Graham, it’s not even close.

Clay Harbor on the other hand, gets his third start in the absence of Marcedes Lewis. Watching Bortles last week, it was clear that Harbor was his safety blanket. More interestingly, Harbor looked like a bonafide athlete making all the necessary catches showing strong hands and doing it with style. As I mentioned previously, the entire Jags receiving corp (Allen Hurns/Robinson/Clay Harbor) is intriguing this week against a suspect Steeler defense. I could have listed Travis Kelce as he is under-priced due to the “jump the gun” nature of all the fantasy sites (most sites produce salaries for the next week prior to MNF), but everyone already knows he is a fine play and I expect him to be the most played TE of the week.

 

Defense Position

Cleveland Browns DK $2,700
New York Giants DK $2,400

Everything I have been discussing thus far somewhat goes out the window when it comes to defensive plays, with the exception that you want to play a defense that no one saw coming. It is very difficult to forecast who has the best chance of being the number one overall defense, especially since this ranking can be so easily swayed by unpredictable return and defensive touchdowns.

I really like the Browns in a double up format. They are affordable, coming off a bye, and playing a bad offense in Tennessee (possibly without Jake Locker for a second week in a row).

A sneakier pick would be the New York Giants, who are going against the high potent offense of the Atlanta Falcons. Unfortunately, the Falcons have a litany of offensive line injuries and may have the worst defense in the NFL, which has also suffered some recent injuries. I believe most people will dismiss this pick because of the opponent but a smart player won’t be fooled.

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As mentioned, this article didn't feature as many direct picks as I normally include because I wanted to dedicate this week to the difference between double ups and GPP tournaments. I will be posting my normal Saturday Edition which will feature all sorts of value picks at every position. As always feel free to follow me on twitter @brycemcvay as I will constantly tweet my favorite Sunday value plays as the inactives/injuries are announced. "Dreams are great; they are a nightly reminder that anything's possible"...including wining a million bucks playing fantasy football.