Week 5! We're out of bye-week hell, and back into essentially a full slate of games (have fun with your week off, irrelevant Dolphins and Raiders!). Week 4 was fantastic, with only some of our sleepers no-showing, and some big performances from big names. But why live in the past? Let's get to the picks!
By the way - we're prepared to send you a free eBook on how the pros set both daily fantasy baseball AND football lineups, free of charge! Check out the details, and get your copies now! Don't make another lineup before reading this book! Each contains crucial mistakes your competitors, and maybe you!, are making.
We also have a new partner with a dynamite football product over at Draftster. They're a forward thinking player in this space, and we think they're destined to make some huge waves. They also have a couple thousand bucks in freerolls every week, and they're still small enough that you can get in on the ground floor. And for DFSR users, they're prepared to offer you a no-strings attached $5 voucher for one of their games. Click the banner below to get involved!
Ready to make the leap and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks? Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, Draftster, and DraftKings. And now - for the next month - you can get access to our Football projection tools AND our baseball projection tools for the same price! Sick deal.
And try out our partner ScoreStreak for a totally fresh take on fantasy football. And if you want some picks? Check back later this week. It's the simplest daily fantasy football game in the world, and it might be your best bet to cash in without trying to do a ton of research.
Ben Roethlisberger - FD 8300 DK 7400 DD 12850 DFSTR 7000
Big Ben will be a popular play this week, and for good reason. After putting up 314 yards against Tampa Bay's 3rd worst passing defense, he'll get the crown prince of terrible passing defenses in week 5 against Jacksonville. The Jaguars' 321 passing yards allowed per game is the league's worst, and their terrible performance against the pass last year suggests that this year's horrendousness (special term coined for the Jags) is no fluke. What I really love about Ben in terms of his upside is his Red Zone usage. This will be a theme for this week, by the way, so get used to it. Roethlisberger has had the ball in his hands on 23 of the Steelers' 35 red zone attempts this year, and has two nice red zone targets in Antonio Brown and Heath Miller. I'll be all over Ben in both GPPs and cash games.
Aaron Rodgers - FD 9700 DK 9000 DD 17000 DFSTR
Rodgers has been a real feast or famine play this season, but I view this as a positive for GPP plays. It means his price is largely based on his per game performance, but he's shown us he's capable of dropping a monster game or two. After eviscerating the Bears, he'll square off against a Vikings team that is similarly middle of the pack when it comes to defending the pass. Given the struggle of the Packers' running game this season, it looks like they're happy to lean more heavily on the pass - especially in the red zone. Their 27/12 pass/run split is very encouraging for Rodgers' purposes, and it doesn't hurt that he has 2 amazing red zone targets in Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. Keep in mind that Rodgers' two bad games came at Seattle and against a Lions team that has allowed the 2nd fewest yards per game in the air this season. I'm all systems go on Rodgers this week.
Drew Brees - FD 9100 DK 8900 DD 16900 DFSTR 9000
Let's get the awkwardness out of the way - Brees hasn't paid off the way our projection system has guess (and we'd have hoped) at all this season in spite of what should have been pretty favorable match-ups. But! But! The Bucs! I'll say it now, and hopefully for the last time. If Brees doesn't put together a great fantasy game against the Bucs, I will take at least a 1 week break from recommending him. He's posting the highest completion percentage of his career, and he is on pace to have just 6 fewer passing attempts than last season. So, like, what the hell? Analysts are pointing to all sorts of reasons - the absence of a Sproles/Bush-like play maker out of the backfield, the decline of Marques Colston, and other narrative based guesses. I'm not buying it. The Bucs have allowed the 2nd most passing yards per game this year, and if Brees can't put it together against them, I will finally concede that something larger is going on here.
Eli Manning - FD 7300 DK 7500 DD 13300 DFSTR 6000
I'm bucking our projection system a little bit here, because it isn't quite sure the Falcons will allow this many passing yards, or the Giants will continue to score this many points. It doesn't think he'll post a completion % 4 points higher than his career best at 33 years old. Frankly, it doesn't like that the Giants run more in the red zone than they pass. So why am I ignoring all of this information, and pressing forward anyway? Well, I like the emergence of Eli's red zone targets (Rueben Randle and Larry Donnell). I love the way he can look for Rashad Jennings down there as well. And, primarily, the Falcons have just allowed so many passing yards that I believe this game looks a lot more like the Redskins game than the games Eli played against 3 pretty tough pass defenses in Houston, Arizona, and Detroit. This is kind of my anti-Brees play. I don't think you can count on him for 30+ points, but I'm very comfortable with him at these price points in GPPs across the various sites.
Peyton Manning - FD 9800 DK 9200 DD 16950 DFSTR 9000
It's been a consistent if not great start for Eli's big brother this year, but I think we see Manning's first huge game in Week 5. Arizona has been incredibly tough against the run this year (just 71 yards per game) while being about league average against the pass, and Montee Ball hasn't done anything to make us think that Denver will try to run at all costs or anything. Manning has faced 2 defenses that have been stingy against the pass this year (KC and SEA), and it's hard to imagine him putting up another 2 TD game in this one. Vegas likes this game for the 2nd highest total of the week, and I think the over comes in while riding Manning's right arm.
Ryan Fitzpatrick - FD 6500 DK 5500 DD 10950 DFSTR 5800
It's easy to forget about Fitzpatrick when considering your punt plays at QB this week, but I'd be a little cautious about that. With Arian Foster banged up, Houston has relied more heavily on the pass in the last two weeks, and while Fitz hasn't converted that into fantasy superstardom, this might be the week he puts it together. Another week of comfort with the emergent DeAndre Hopkins and the stalwart Andre Johnson combined with a Dallas pass D that allowed the 3rd most passing yards last year and the 5th most so far this year. If Dallas' offense continues to play well, Fitzpatrick and the Texans should be in the position to play catch-up, which could lead to a big game for the Houston passing game.
Rashad Jennings - FD 7200 DK 5500 DD 12950 DFSTR 6900
Quieting any running back by committee talks, Jennings has emerged as a true RB1 this year - only his price hasn't quite caught up yet. The Giants halfback has put up fantastic numbers this year (aside from a rest game in a blowout against the Redskins), and has been touching the ball an absolute ton. You're getting him at a discount this week after the down game, but consider that Jennings was coming off of 3 days rest from a 34 touch monster effort. Jennings faces the Falcons, who have allowed the 3rd most rushing yards this year, and the extra rest from playing a Thursday game in week 4 should really help. What I love most about Jennings, though? Red zone touches. His 19 red zone touches this year lead any skill position player I'll recommend this week - and as we all know, red zone touches are where real upside comes from.
DeMarco Murray - FD 9000 DK 7500 DD 15850 DFSTR 9000
Well, the cat's out of the bag with Murray. He's gone off after we've recommended him the past few weeks, and his price is finally approaching where it ought to be. If this game goes as Vegas predicts it will - with the Cowboys getting out in front and staying there - Murray should continue to be a beast this week. He's had more opportunities to touch the ball than any other back this year, and unlike a lot of other high volume guys, he's produced. He has a startling 154 more yards than the next best back, and 18 more carries as well.
foster - 6, get rid of him. The Texans, for their part, have allowed the 7th most rushing yards this season. The wheels may come off Murray at these usage rates at some point, but for now, I'm enjoying the ride.
Matt Forte - FD 8700 DK 7800 DD 14250 DFSTR 6600
As predicted, Forte finally put together a great game last week, even if he didn't punch one in to the end zone. The Bears' reliance on the pass in the red zone is admittedly troubling, but Forte's 12 touches down there is nothing to sneeze at - and it actually ranks ahead of Demarco Murray. The Panthers' defensive reputation is greater than their actual performance, as they've gotten shredded for 563 running yards this year. The teams they've faced have included three rather uninspiring running back by committee teams - Detroit, Tampa Bay, and Baltimore. I'm selling the Panthers' D, and buying Forte all the way here.
Le'Veon Bell - FD 8600 DK 7300 DD 14100 DFSTR 6800
The Steelers' feature back has gone from a "high opportunity, meh performance" guy to a true stud in a matter of just a few games. In spite of concerns surrounding the arrival of Blount, Bell is on pace for more than 280 carries and almost 70 catches this year. And it doesn't hurt that he's heard his number called 11 times in the red zone. Not to be out done, the Jags' terrible pass defense is only a little bit worse than their 26th ranked run defense. In a game that could get out of hand, we could see another huge game from Bell.
LeSean McCoy - FD 8300 DK 7800 DD 12200 DFSTR 8000
Like Drew Brees, our projection system continues to love McCoy even as he flounders. It's back to opportunity, again. For all of his struggles, McCoy has still had 13 red zone touches this year, and is only down 2 touches per game from last year's huge performance. The Rams are a team that look lost, and the Eagles might actually settle into a mode where they can grind a team down and utilize their playmakers out of the backfield. It's last call on McCoy, though. You're getting a great price here, but even we won't be brave enough to recommend him if he can't put it together against the Rams.
Want more RBs to pick from? Check out our week 5 sleepers and stacks article coming out later this week, or try a free 3 day trial of our projection system.
Jordy Nelson - FD 8500 DK 7900 DD 14300 DFSTR
Randall Cobb - FD 8300 DK 6900 DD 12500 DFSTR
I'm a little annoyed about this Thursday's game, because Doug and I usually spend it clicking champagne glasses while watching everyone who played the Thursday game just to play the Thursday players suffer on twitter. This week we'll become all we despise, as our projection system loves both Nelson and Cobb to pair with Rodgers. The reasons are obvious and myriad - Nelson leads the league in targets, receptions, and yards, and Cobb is a better priced guy who gets tons of end zone looks. It's rare that I recommend this, but I could really see stacking both Cobb and Nelson with Rodgers in a couple of GPP lineups and seeing what happens. They've received 18 of the team's 25 red zone targets. Just sayin'!
Rueben Randle - FD 5400 DK 3900 DD 8950 DFSTR 4100
I'd normally save such a low priced player for our sleepers and stacks article, but Randle is simply too enticing. He's been targeted 30 times this year (just 1 fewer time than Randall Cobb, listed above), and while he has just 1 score, he's been targeted 8 times in the red zone as well. I detailed the Falcons' generosity in the passing game this year in Eli's write-up, and it all holds true for Randle as well. I expect the Falcons to try and take Donnell away this week, leaving even more opportunities than usual for the Giants' emerging WR.
Antonio Brown - FD 9000 DK 8100 DD 15200 DFSTR 8100
I mean, one would think that Brown can't just score 2 touchdowns a week, but who knows? The match-up gets even better against the Jaguars this week, and Brown is averaging 11 targets, more than 100 yards, and more than a touchdown per game in his last 3 games. It's clear that Roethlisberger wants to rely on Brown even more this year with Sanders gone, and while Wheaton is drawing a little bit of attention, Brown is still the target du jour - especially in the red zone, where Brown has 8 targets to Wheaton's 2.
Andre Johnson - FD 6700 DK 6400 DD 10850 DFSTR 6800
Johnson's price continues to be depressed due to lack of touchdown production, but he's had the 14th most targets and the 21st most receiving yards this year out of anyone who can catch a pass. And again - for all of Dallas' early season success, they've still allowed the 5th most passing yards this year. While the emergence of DeAndre Hopkins might concern you, keep in mind that Johnson has garnered 6 red zone targets to Hopkins' two, so Fitzpatrick and the Texans still have Johnson firmly in the game plan. And for these prices? You could do a lot worse.
Andrew Hawkins - FD 5300 DK 3500 DD 9950 DFSTR 4400
Cheap across the industry, I continue to love Hawkins, who has emerged as the Browns' #1 wide receiver. Particularly in PPR formats, Hawkins brings a ton of value as a possession receiving beast. I believe he's safer than Rueben Randle simply because of the lack of weapons around him, but that he may not have the upside since the Browns tend to run a heck of a lot more than they pass when they get down in scoring territory. Hawkins is my cash game play, where Randle is a little more fun for GPPs. If pressed, though? I wouldn't mind pairing them together.
Demaryius Thomas - FD 8600 DK 7400 DD 12000 DFSTR 8200
After a bye week and a less than impressive start to the season, it's easy to forget about Demaryius Thomas. But with Calvin Johnson dealing with injury and the whole world keying in on Antonio Brown, I think there's a great case for looking Demaryius' way. He's 27 years old and coming off of two basically identical and terrific seasons, and Peyton will have a huge incentive to get him on track after dealing with Vontae Davis and Richard Sherman earlier this season. Like I mentioned in Manning's write-up, all signs point to Denver leaning on the pass in this game, and I think this could be Thomas' break out game.
Jimmy Graham - FD 7900 DK 7600 DD 15250 DFSTR 7500
If you extrapolated Graham's early season numbers you'd get a 128 catch, 1300+ yard, and 12 touch down season. This would be as good, on sites with .5 or full PPR, as last season's numbers. And yet, all the buzz is around Martellus Bennett and Julius Thomas, who have never sniffed a full season like what Graham does every year. Listen, we're getting some interesting tight end play this year, but Graham's price being in the same neighborhood as Bennett, Gronk, and Thomas just isn't right. And the Saints have the Bucs this week. I'm letting the good times roll with the Saints' big TE in week 5.
Larry Donnell - FD 6200 DK 5700 DD 10950 DFSTR 5300
If there's another TE I'm making eyes at, it's Donnell. While he doesn't have the explosiveness of some of the other big name TEs, what he does have is his QB's attention and little competition. While it'd be silly to pencil him in for 3 touch downs a game, his 9 red zone targets this season put him ahead of anyone else at the position. While I do think the Falcons will try and take him away this week, you're getting him at a much discounted price compared with the other elite TEs against a team that really hasn't been able to take away anyone in the passing game this year.
Greg Olsen - FD 5900 DK 5300 DD 10200 DFSTR 4400
Like the guys above him, Olsen is on pace for career bests in every category. The only thing holding him down? Carolina's desire to run in the red zone. One has to wonder, though, with the complete ineffectiveness of the Panthers' ground game, if this can continue much longer. I don't care about the "revenge game" nonsense with the Bears this week, but if "Darrin Reaves" can't get anything going on the ground, I could see the short passing game replacing the run for the Panthers, with Olsen leading the charge.
Heath Miller - FD 5900 DK 4000 DD 8700 DFSTR 5400
Miller's targets exploded in week 4, and fearing risk of suffering from recency bias, I still think he's a guy Roethlisberger feels comfortable with in and around the end zone. The big thing driving Miller's rank here, though, is the price. With "emerging" tight ends rocketing up in price, Miller can provide steady play at a reasonable cost, and his role in the Steelers' offense is secure. Again, the Jags have been awful against the pass this year, and it's easy to imagine Miller putting up a performance similar to his 10 catch, 85 yard, 1 TD performance from week 4.
Also considered: Delanie Walker
A special nod to...
Martellus Bennett. It was fun while it lasted, but the price is pretty much absurd at this point. I'm also looking right at Kelce from the Chiefs on Draftkings, where he's still a minimum priced player. Tough matchup, but it's the minimum price, so who cares?
My weekly note on kickers:
Frankly, ranking kickers is sort of beneath me. So what I'm going to do, instead of give you a long and drawn out explanation for each, is give you a little insight into our kicker strategy, and give your our top plays on a points per dollar basis.
Here's brass tacks: I rarely stack a kicker with my offensive players because that limits their collective upside. I try to take kickers in good weather in games where they are a favorite with high totals. When pressed, I'll just whatever money I have left on a kicker that looks decent. Cool? Here's who our system likes:
Mason Crosby - 5000
Shayne Graham - 4500
Josh Brown - 5000
Nick Novak - 5100
Shaun Suisham - 4800
Alex Henery - 4800
New Orleans Saints
Not a defense you can bring home to your mother, but it's a high upside play against a team with injury concerns for its already mediocre players. The Bucs made the Falcons D look incredible in week 3, and for super cheap prices, I don't mind rolling the dice on the Saints a bit.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Well, this one didn't pay the bills against the Bucs in week 4, but just like the Steelers' offensive players, they get an even better match-up in week 5. The Jags are the very worst offense in the league by Football Outsiders' DVOA (second place? The Bucs. Gulp). They'll likely start the young Blake Bortles, and while he's promising, any young QB is going to be prone to mistakes. And who exactly is supposed to be running the ball in this game? Toby Gerhardt? Denard Robinson? Please. Steelers all day.
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle's all-world defense will be facing a Redskins team that coughed the ball up 18 times (all numbers approximate) against the Giants last Thursday. I don't think we're getting good Kirk Cousins in this one. I think we're getting a bloodbath.
Detroit Lions
Oh, hello Kyle Orton! It feels like an eternity since the last time I set eyes upon your name in an opposing box score. Welcome back. Please! Sit down, make yourself comfortable! A lot of people are sounding the "Orton makes the Bills BETTER!" trumpet, but I'm not buying it. They signed the guy right at the beginning of the season, and he can be as "comfortable with the playbook" as he wants to be, it's awfully tough to learn an NFL offense in a few weeks. And it's not like he has a ton of great offensive weapons here, either. The Lions have been the league's toughest defense against the pass this year, and if they get their trademark pressure on Orton, this one could get ugly quick.
Cincinnati Bengals
Kind of an odd one, considering the Bengals are playing the Pats, right? Well, the Pats have brought the league's 7th worst offensive DVOA this year, and the Bengals have flexed the league's stoutest defense by those same metrics. The Pats aren't especially mistake prone, but I could see this being a great separation play if you have the money available.
Give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr and @dougnorrie.
Ready to make the leap and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks? Try a free 3-day trial to our Lineup Construction Tools for FanDuel, DraftKings, and Drafster - AND you'll get 'em for Football as well, all for the same price!
Did you know that our new Football eBook is live just in time for football season? You can get a free copy in your inbox by filling out the form below.
A quick note - if you're only interested in Football related content getting emailed to you, be sure to check the "DFSR Football Newsletter" box on the signup form below.
Thanks, and good luck!
Daily Fantasy DraftKings and FanDuel NBA Picks & Projections Playing NBA DFS Nightly? Join one…
Week 9 NFL DFS plays for DraftKings and FanDuel
Packed slate of NBA action on FanDuel and DraftKings
Thursday night NBA picks for DraftKings and FanDuel
Daily Fantasy NFL Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 8 Sunday 10/27/24 Now’s…
A main slate of NBA DFS action on FanDuel and DraftKings.
