Daily Fantasy Football Picks for Week 4 - DraftKings Edition

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As promised, this is my second of two posts for week 4. If you missed my Thursday edition then shame on you. Luckily, it’s still on the site just go filter through the NFL archives. Most 0f the Thursday picks are still good to go for Sunday, however, my expectations have altered on a few and I discuss this below.

Before we talk picks, can I make one thing very clear? IF YOU GET 3.0 VALUE FROM EVERY PLAYER YOU CHOOSE ON DRAFTKINGS YOU WILL MAKE MONEY. Stacks, chalupa, doll lala lala lotz of paypa. We talkin’ cheddar here and I ain’t from Wisconsin….But seriously, it is that simple, not to mention I do most of the heavy lifting for you. When making any sort of prediction, it is vital to have a single metric to track your progress and “value” (i.e. points per $1,000) is both simple and revealing.

Included in every post I intend to give you a few thoughts on general strategy and know-how when it comes to winning at Daily Fantasy. Unfortunately, this week’s thought is more of a warning, or caveat, or whatever the hell you want to call it.

As much as I would love to win every single week, there is a single variable that is not only completely unpredictable, but also extremely detrimental to a profitable week…As Forrest Gump once said, “It Happens.” In this case, the “it” translates to one of your core players going down with a game-ending injury in the first quarter of the game. It’s inevitable and you can only hope that when this does occur, the rest of your well-crafted team can pick up the slack and salvage at least a few of your double up leagues. I personally never play a single guy in every one of my lineups for this exact reason. If you are only investing in a few lineups a week then you will certainly have this issue, however I have upwards of 20-25 different lineups each week where my most played player would be found in approximately 90% of them; a big percentage no doubt, but not 100%. Ok, now that I have scared the “it” out of you, let’s move on to my next crop of Week 4 picks.

Week 4 Picks (Saturday Edition)

My Thursday picks were Matthew Stafford and Phillip Rivers. I am pulling back on Stafford as Calvin Johnson has been missing practice all week. At this point, whether or not Calvin is active on Sunday, I am not playing Stafford or the Basking Shark. This is why I provide updates on my Thursday picks. Rivers is still looking like a great start and is likely to be my number one played QB in double-up formats considering both his floor and price tag.

Quarterbacks

Colin Kaepernick DK 7,600
Ok, so he’s $1,000 more than he was last week and he has yet to reach 3.0 value the entire year. This alone is very alarming to me, so why is he on my list? Well, he ran the ball 12 times last game and we know how big rushing yards can be to the fantasy stats of a QB. He is also playing the Eagles. At home. In a game where the Niners will do anything for a win. Vernon Davis should be back at his disposal and boy the matchup against the Eagles is buttery tasty.

Drew Brees DK 9,300
Aaron Rodgers DK 8,200
I list both of these guys together because you don’t really need to build a case for these perennial pro-bowlers. They are both safe plays this week and have great match ups. I truly love Brees this week but his price is enormous even after his early year struggles. He is a great GPP play, but to get value at his current price, he needs 325+ yards and 3 scores. Two things he’s completely capable of achieving, also two things he has yet to do all year.

I am not as sold on Rodgers this week because I am so big on Lacy (I may stack both in a few double-ups), but like Brees against the Cowboys; Rodgers has been historically stout against the Bears, especially when he travels to Soldier Field.

Blake Bortles DK 5,800
Teddy Bridgewater DK 5,700
Again, I list these guys together because they are the trending, cheap QB plays of the week. I think it’s silly to say one will outperform the other, but my gut is leaning towards Bridgewater. I watched the entire game last week seeing that the Vikings were not afraid to call designed run plays for him. He also got to compete in a game where the opposing team was actually trying, unlike Bortles against the Colts. Bridgewater made some solid throws and looked composed in the pocket. Finally, his week 4 game is at home which I think is huge for a rookie QB; Bortles, on the other hand, is traveling 2,000 miles to San Diego.

Running Backs

My Thursday edition picks were Eddie Lacy and Matt Forte. I still love them both and almost every one of my lineups begins by putting Lacy in my first RB spot. He is without a doubt the most underpriced player of the week.

Matt Asiata DK 4,500
Sir Isaac Newton’s third law states, “For every action, there is an equal and opposite re-action.”  Well, if the Falcons offense is the action, then their defense is the equal and opposite re-action. They were dissected by the Saints and the Bengals in weeks 1 and 2, respectively. Week 3 they didn’t need defense as they were up 56-0 going into the 4^th quarter against the hapless Buccaneers. In spite of Jerick McKinnon’s increased usage, Asiata is still the workhorse in this offense. He is also getting a fair amount of receptions which is key to DK value. Ultimately, his insanely low price is what really sold me.

Donald Brown DK 5,400
He had 31 carries last week in a game where San Diego was leading the entire game. I can’t assume he will get another 30+ carry game but I will assume the Chargers will be up the entire game. He remains their lone option out of the backfield with Matthews and Woodhead out. Another great double up stack option is pairing Brown with Rivers. He had the biggest salary increase from week 3 to 4 so this does bother me, but is still priced as the 20^th overall back. He is closer to a top 10 back this week considering the match up.

Le’Veon Bell DK 7,400
This stud obviously doesn’t qualify as a “cheap, value play” considering his price tag, but he had to make one of my two editions. Using my OWN TWO EYES (week 3 tip), I have not seen a more elusive running back then Bell. He is unbelievably patient behind his line and consistently shakes and bakes the defense, Ricky Bobby-esque. The Bucs run defense hasn’t been as bad as the rest of their team but Bell is match up proof at this point. The only negative would be Bell ceding some of his work to LeGarrette Blount in a possible blowout, but that fact alone is keeping him from being the most expensive RB this week.

Khiry Robinson DK 4,800
I wanted to touch on this guy since he is still a top recommendation from many outlets this week. He was my pick of the week last week at $3,900 and he shat the bed from a value standpoint. Rushing for 69 yards and no receiving targets was obviously a letdown. It’s worth repeating that the lone goal line score was from Pierre Thomas on a hurry-up play to catch the Vikings off guard and that the Saints report Khiry is still the go-to goal line back. He is $900 more this week which equates to 14.4 points in order to achieve value. I admit, I don’t mind the play but he breaks my number rule for RB’s; he gets no receptions! Assuming this trend continues, he needs 84 rushing yards and a score to achieve a 3.0 value and I would say this stat line is closer to his ceiling than to his floor. I could eat these words next week, but I would much rather play Matt Asiata for $300 less against that terrible Atlanta defense.

Wide Receivers

My Thursday edition recommended two Steeler wide outs in Antonio Brown and Markus Wheaton. A WR stack with these two speed demons remains a great move in double up formats…I don’t mind this option in GPP formats either as both of these guys have high ceilings if they don’t lose too much to the Bell/Blount combo.

Jeremy Maclin DK 6,300
After his monster game against Washington, one would assume at least a moderate price increase from weeks 3 to 4. In fact, Maclin is $100 cheaper this week than last. I interpret this two ways; either DK is underpricing this WR1 two weeks in a row, or DK believes his current price tag in the mid $6,000’s is as high as he should be priced all year regardless of his performance. The matchup is teetering on a full-blown plus matchup considering the over/under of this game and the notion that the Eagles will be playing from behind all game. I will add that I love Michael Crabtree as a play this week as well and he is only $100 more expensive than Maclin. One, if not both of these guys will achieve 3.0 value. Flip a coin if you can’t decide, it’s that close in my opinion.

Cordarrelle Patterson DK 5,600
The two main selling points with this hit or miss playmaker; he is playing a bad Atlanta defense as I touched on earlier and Kyle Rudolph is out for the next 6 weeks. This means more targets for Patterson and Jennings. I don’t mind a Greg Jennings play either but from a GPP standpoint I believe Patterson is the play especially in a game where the Vikings may have to play from behind against a stellar Falcons offense.

DeAndre Hopkins DK 4,800
I am not sure how DK’s salary producing model decided upon his meager week 4 price. He is $600 less than he was last week, yet he went for 6 and 116. He also had the most amazing catch of the year (shoot, maybe ever! It was nasty) for another 40+ yards…It was called back due to penalty. He has a very beatable match up at home against Buffalo. Considering the relatively cheap price of his counterpart, Andre Johnson ($5,700) I like the idea of stacking both guys. If Foster is out another week, then I am even more bullish on the Texans relying on more of their passing attack. Let me add one more point, his lowest scoring points total this year is 11.2.

Lightning Round @ the WR Position
After a few days of research I now feel WR is value city this week so here’s a list of names that I believe are underpriced and have more than a 50% chance to achieve 3.0 Value: Steve Smith SR., Keenan Allen, Brandin Cooks, Cecil Shorts III, Golden Tate, Greg Jennings, Allen Robinson, Jeremy Kerley.

Tight Ends

I gave you three tight ends (Jimmy Graham, Delanie Walker, and Antonio Gates) in my Thursday edition and stated that I felt the entire tight end landscape was underpriced giving way to the option of playing two tight ends. I still love all three TE’s, but I am a little weary of Walker now that both he and Locker are game-time decisions going into Sunday. With Ladarius Green highly questionable as well, I will most likely go Gates over Walker in every scenario.

Moreover, I like Graham and Gates so much this week I may just play both of them in 90% of my leagues.  If you aren’t as convinced as myself, I do like the upside of Gronk this week at a modest $5,700 (the cheapest he’s been all year, yet expected to see the most snaps all year). I also like how cheap Zach Ertz is this week at only $4,000.

Defense

I only offered one defensive recommendation, the San Diego Chargers, in my Thursday edition. This is still my number one play this week, but I hate everything about the Buccaneers this year so here you go.

Steelers DK 2,900
I understand the Steelers are dealing with a litany of injuries, but the Bucs are dealing with a severe case of “my son’s high school team could beat you” syndrome. Living in Southern Florida where high school football is extremely competitive, I seriously do hear that joke once a day. Of course the Bucs could beat a Plant City or Armwood team but it’s still embarrassing that the surrounding population even utters those words. Can I add that the Steelers shut down the Panthers in Carolina during primetime last Sunday night?

Follow me on twitter @brycemcvay as I will constantly tweet my favorite Sunday value plays as the inactives are announced. Remember, I never set my lineups prior to Sunday and you shouldn’t either. Good luck and feel free to comment any feedback you may have on my picks.