Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and Draftster 9/1/14

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Pitchers

Julio Teheran - FD 8700 DK 8900 DD 19150 DFSTR 7500
It's a weird day for pitching. Most of the top arms are facing each other. For that reason I'm avoiding both Price and Kluber squaring off as both teams are tough outs and they neutralize each other to some degree. I'm willing to run Teheran against Hamels (him too, see below) because the Phillies are just brutal against righty arms this season, ranking second to last in the league above only the Padres. Teheran is a control freaking, walking only two batters per nine. He doesn't have huge K upside, but makes up for it by hanging around later in games. I wish he was't facing Hamels, but the matchup works.

Cole Hamels - FD 9500 DK 10600 DD 20300 DFSTR 9200
Hamels is more of a GPP play on the day. He's been fantastic on the season with a low 3's xFIP and his typical brand of efficiency. The problem is the Braves rank near the top of the league against lefties. But they strike out a ton. Like 24% of the time against lefties. The K potential is there for Hamels today and if he can avoid a mini blowup, could put up a big line. His win expectation is diminished against Teheran but the strikeouts could make up for that.

Zack Wheeler - FD 7700 DK 8800 DD 15200 DFSTR 9000
Speaking of teams that strikeout out en masse, the Marlins go down on strikes at the highest clip in the league against righty arms. They rank in the middle of the pack in team wOBA on that side of the split and don't have much to speak of around the bottom of the order. Wheeler makes for some upside or as a number two pitcher on the day. He needs to keep his walks in check to be truly effective (no small task for the guy) but has a chance to do that against a team that's anything but patient.

Consider Drew Smyly against the Red Sox

Catchers

Buster Posey - FD 4400 DK 5200 DD 11300 DFSTR 13800
Here's the thing with Posey: he's facing a lefty in Coors. Nuff said right? It isn't that easy today as the sites are doing a better job price correcting for the ballpark. His price everywhere has jumped to (presumably) account for an overstart at Coors. That being said, he has by far the biggest point expectation of any catcher today. If you are saving elsewhere it makes sense to try and get him in the lineup as many of the other top options face some tougher pitching matchups.

Jonathan Lucroy - FD 3300 DK 4500 DD 9200 DFSTR 6300
He's better for his career against lefty pitching, but Lucroy is a buy on righty side of the split today for a couple of reasons. He faces Jacob Turner, a dude with a low K rate (less than six per nine) and an xFIP close to 4.00. Lucroy's actually been decent against righties this season with an OPS in the .800's and Wrigley is above average for righty power.

Consider Evan Gattis against the lefty Hamels.

First Basemen

Adam LaRoche - FD 3300 DK 3800 DD 8200 DFSTR 3000
I'm all over some of the Nats today against Roberto Hernandez. Roberto has spent his time in the majors getting shellacked by lefty bats. They've put up close to an .800 OPS against him and while it's been a bit better this season that's only because of a crazy low .242 Babip for lefties. He sucks. Look for Laroche, hitting in the middle of the order, to put up some numbers against the guy today and I really like him for cash games. He's an especially good deal on DraftKings.

Chris Davis - FD 3400 DK 4700 DD 9600 DFSTR 9400
Recommended Crush as our top first base play yesterday and he more than paid. The matchup isn't as great today against Hughes, but there's still reason for optimism. Hughes is a flyball pitcher going in Camden Yards where power is well above average for lefties out to right field. Hughes has been fantastic this season of course and especially recently.

Strongly consider Michael Morse. Simply skipped his name in our system but he is coming in at a great multiplier especially on FanDuel.

Second Basemen

Asdrubal Cabrera - FD 2600 DK 3800 DD 7750 DFSTR 6700
(SS on DK) He's far from an offensive dynamo, but the Nats offense is solid and Asdrubal can get some things done in the right matchup. He's okay against righty pitching, but the story here is the matchup. Roberto Hernandez is brutal on the season, striking out less than six, walking close to four per nine and sporting an xFIP in the mid 4's. Like I said for Laroche, the Nats are in a good spot today, especially the ones hitting from the left side of the plate.

Robinson Cano - FD 3400 DK 4900 DD 10350 DFSTR 5000
Jason Hammel is significantly worse against lefties over his career and this season his xFIP on that side of the split is over 4.00. Cano is coming cheaper in a couple of spots (FD being one of them) and if you want to spend a little at the position I think it's more than reasonable to have him in there with a favorable matchup.

Consider Javier Baez

Shortstops

Tough position to fill today
Hanley Ramirez - FD 3400 DK 4200 DD 10000 DFSTR 5100
Going back to the well on this one. Somewhat of a disappointment against the lefty Stults yesterday. And the matchup today against Gio isn't a whole lot easier. But shortstop is a tough nut to crack today and I still believe Hanley is the best offensive option here even with the tougher guy on the hill. If you don't spend for him I'd probably just punt it all together.

Brandon Crawford - FD 2300 DK 3200 DD 5650 DFSTR 3000
Here's where I'd punt if given the choice. Which I have. Because I said so. Crawford gets the benefit of playing in Coors against Morales and has actually been decent this season against lefties with an OPS over .800 and a 137 wRC+. He is coming

Strongly consider Scooter Gennett on DraftKings.

Third Basemen

Aramis Ramirez - FD 3100 DK 4200 DD 8700 DFSTR 5600
Jacob Turner has actually been much worse against righties for his career, making some of the Brewers interesting options today. Turner has allowed an .830 OPS against righties and just generally stinks. Aramis is better against lefties, but I like this spot for him today. He's about average against righties this season and I don't mind going reverse splits here.

Kyle Seager - FD 3200 DK 4400 DD 9100 DFSTR 7600
As I said for Cano, Hammel is much worse against lefty bats and Seager has had significant success against righty pitching this season and for his career. His OPS this year is in the high .800's and his .382 wOBA is among the highest in the league on that side of the split.

Mike Moustakas - FD 2400 DK 3300 DD 6550 DFSTR 3600
This is a deep dive GPP play. He stinks obviously, but considering how bad Lewis is against lefties I think you can think about punting with Moustakas at min salaries. Again, anything but safe though I think I'll stack some Royals Colby today in a few places.

Pablo Sandoval - FD 2800 DK 4100 DD 8050 DFSTR 3100
Worse against lefties for sure, but the park factors in here as well as Panda's price. I wouldn't feel great about it considering his lack of success against lefties, but our system factors in things beyond splits and it likes his value today.

Outfielders

Hunter Pence - FD 3700 DK 5100 DD 10000 DFSTR 6700
What do you want to know here? Pence is heading into the best hitter's park on the planet against a crappy lefty in Morales who gets raked by righty bats. Pence's prices are high in some spots, but FanDuel hasn't corrected all that much. He should be a crazy high percentage start in cash games and GPPs because of the upside. He's a great play everywhere and I think it makes sense to pay up.

Alex Gordon - FD 3200 DK 4700 DD 8900 DFSTR 6600
Colby Lewis gets just blasted by lefty bats. For his career lefties have an .830 OPS against the guy. Gordon makes for a nice play on the slightly better side of his split. Gordon's having a solid season add power, a little speed and has a 124 wRC+ against righty pitching this season.

Bryce Harper - FD 2900 DK 3700 DD 8800 DFSTR 4600
As I said before with Laroche and Cabrera, Roberto Hernandez is a great target for lefty bats. Harper's season's been anything but great, but he went yard twice yesterday. While our system doesn't care about that performance, it is nice to know he isn't dead in the water.

Yoenis Cespedes - FD 4100 DK 4600 DD 10150 DFSTR 8300
His price has climbed of late, but I think you can still target him against Drew Smyly. Smyly's shown some stuff lately, but Cespedes can tag lefties and this season has run bad with a .214 Babip on that side of the split this season.

Ryan Braun - FD 3500 DK 5200 DD 11050 DFSTR 4100
Don't mind playing him against the righty Turner mostly because the latter is bad and Braun has shown a measure of success in this side of the split for his career.

Consider Allen Craig and Khris Davis

Give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr and @dougnorrie.

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