Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and Draftster 8/25/14

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Pitchers

This position is fraught with peril today. No doubt about it. You'll be spending on hitting.
Jeff Samardzija - FD 8100 DK 9200 DD 17100 DFSTR 5400
If you are looking to target just a little K upside this is your stop. The Astros are in the bottom half of the league in team wOBA against righties and strike out more than 23% of the time. I don't love the ballpark as Minute Maid does allow power to both sides of the plate at a higher than league average rate. Samardzija has been good, not great this season, but that's all you can ask for on a pitching day like this one. His K rate is right around eight batters per nine and he keeps his walks at an acceptable rate. The xFIP is in the low threes and I'm trying my damndest to find the positive plays today.

Jake Odorizzi - FD 8100 DK 8500 DD 15700 DFSTR 9500
Has a tough matchup in a tougher park but Odorizzi has been a K machine this season and I don't mind buying the better pitcher in the worse matchup rather than the other way around. His K rate is over 10.5 per nine and the xFIP is in the mid three's. The O's are good against righties but Odorizzi's prices make the upside there and able to accept the possible downside.

Francisco Liriano - FD 7100 DK 9700 DD 13800 DFSTR 8100
Eep. It's getting weird in here. You feel it? It doesn't feel great. The good news for Liriano is his strike out rate is over 9.5 batters per nine and his xFIP is about three quarters a run lower than his ERA at 3.43. That's the good news. The bad news is that the Cardinals come in the top half of the league against lefties. They do strike out some and their power is limited, but they can hit in dribs and drabs. Liriano could go six with some K's or he could get chased, but I like the upside on a weird day.

Consider Kyle Lohse

 

Catchers

Jonathan Lucroy - FD 3400 DK 4800 DD 9700 DFSTR 9300
We are going to keep this sweet and easy today. No fuss, no muss. Lucroy is coming at some super solid prices in some spots (like FanDuel) and really is in play everywhere considering the matchup. Petco Park reduces power for sure, but Lucroy has the splits advantage here against Eric Stults. Lucroy's always been better against lefty pitching and this season's no different as he's sporting a mid .800's OPS to go along with a 135 wRC+ in that split. You'll see a bunch of Brew Crew here today with the only downside being the park.

Buster Posey - FD 3600 DK 4300 DD 9450 DFSTR 8400
Posey and Lucroy come down to a price thing today. I'm kind of willing to just play the one who's cheap on whatever site you favor. Posey is in a similar spot against a weak lefty, but in a pitcher's park. AT&T Park decreases power to righties, but Posey's splits this year are nearly identical to Lucroy's. Buster is rocking am .852 OPS this season and his historical numbers really back up his ability to hit lefties. Go with whoever fits your budget.

 

First Basemen

Mike Napoli - FD 3400 DK 4100 DD 9250 DFSTR 6800
He's hammered lefty pitching this season and if he isn't facing a power pitcher then it is game freaking on. Against southpaws this season, Napoli's been among the best in the league with an .893 OPS and .397 wOBA. It's a little Babip-y for sure, but he's always been better against lefties with a career number over .900. J.A. Happ is no prince and Napoli's in a great spot with the Rogers Centre rating out as one of the best power parks for righty bats.

Brandon Moss - FD 3000 DK 4000 DD 10000 DFSTR 3000
After a torrid start, Moss has definitely come back down to Earth now that the Hr/FB% has regressed back to something that looks like normal. But with that his price has come down as well leaving him in a solid spot today against Scott Feldman. Feldman is trash with a mid 4's xFIP and a K rate that makes average pitchers feel good about themselves. The prices on Moss are completely reasonable and allow for nice flexibility elsewhere.

Couple of other punt-type options here depending on site. Guys like Mark Reynolds and Adam Lind come to mind.

 

Second Basemen

Robinson Cano - FD 3600 DK 5300 DD 11150 DFSTR 6500
Because pitching is so cheap today I think you can splurge a little on Cano at a weaker position. This is assuming he plays of course as he did take himself out of Sunday's game with a bout of the dizzies. If he is going you can target him against Miles Mikolas (who always makes me think of these commercials) who isn't as bad as his ERA suggests, but isn't good either. Cano's been awesome against righties this season with an OPS well over .900 and a superb 161 wRC+. These numbers aren't new for the guy and as long as his head's right you should have him in cash games.

Dustin Pedroia - FD 2800 DK 4000 DD 8400 DFSTR 3400
Ugh, I can't quit the guy. Hate that his prices are so low making me think about him even a little bit. But he's playing on the better side of his split (historically) and against a mediocre arm in a hitter's park. I fully admit there seems like the wrist injury is effecting him. And buyer beware. Ugh. Dustin I can't quit you.

 

Shortstops

Elvis Andrus - FD 2600 DK 3700 DD 7450 DFSTR 3800
Shortstop is always such a tough position to fill I'm usually content to go as cheap as possible with a guy I think will see his share of PAs. Andrus often fits that bill. He'll chip in points here and there without ever really busting through with power. Because so few shortstops do, it's acceptable to just pick up some points on the cheap and move on. Roenis Elias is fine enough and the park doesn't lend itself to power (but neither does Andrus). He needs to pick up some bases and runs for sure. The guys behind him hit lefties well putting him with a nice expectation today.

Consider Asdrubal Cabrera

 

Third Basemen

Aramis Ramirez - FD 3100 DK 4000 DD 8300 DFSTR 5200
Adrian Beltre - FD 3200 DK 4600 DD 9600 DFSTR 8900
Kyle Seager - FD 3100 DK 4600 DD 9650 DFSTR 5800
There's a three-headed monster here today and it's difficult to parse out the value differences among them. Each of these guys has the same relevant factors working for and against them today. They each face a pitcher on the better side of the platoon (Stults, Elias, Beltre). They all own solid OPS splits against that respective hand (1.050, .930, .887). They all are playing in a pitcher's park which reduces the power expectation some (Petco, Safeco). And they all hit in or around the middle of the order. It's a tough call. Again, and not to hedge too terribly much (some call this copping out) I'd consider the price implications for the respective sites and move from there. You can feel comfortable building the rest of your lineup and finding which guy fits. Their points/$ multipliers are nearly identical.

 

Outfielders

This is a treasure trove today as it's a platoon split smorgasbord on offense. I think it's smart to hedge a little here.
Mike Trout - FD 4200 DK 5400 DD 12350 DFSTR 4100
And this is what happens when even the best of players enters into a slump. Trout's price is nearing or at critical mass in some places (FanDuel and Draftster specifically) and I get why. He's struggling some over the short term and this season hasn't been up to his lofty standards. But $4200 on FD against Jarred Cosart? Come on. I'm not willing to completely buy into streaks (good or bad) simply because predicting the beginnings and ends of them is impossible. What I do know though is a good way to break out of a slump is by facing below average talent on the mound. (As I was completing this post Trout homered FWIW)

Ryan Braun - FD 3800 DK 4800 DD 10600 DFSTR 7600
Khris Davis - FD 3000 DK 3800 DD 8500 DFSTR 6100
and to a lesser extent
Carlos Gomez - FD 4300 DK 5000 DD 11150 DFSTR 12000
I'm a fan of the first two guys much more than Gomez but adding Carlos as a consideration if you are interested in stacking the Brewers. Braun and Davis in particular hit lefties really with each posting a mid .800's OPS in that split this season. The park depresses power but Eric Stults is almost enough to make up for that. Both Braun and Davis are coming cheap for their points expectations and I'm willing to look past the ballpark on a day when many good plays are playing in pitcher's parks.

Bryce Harper - FD 2900 DK 3700 DD 9100 DFSTR 3000
Speaking of streaks. Harper homered yesterday so buy him everywhere! Kidding. Sort of. I'm mostly loving the prices here against A.J. Burnett who's getting ripped up by lefties this season. Lefty bats are posting an .800 OPS against him and Harper, though he's struggled, is coming in just on the north side of punt prices.

Giancarlo Stanton - FD 5300 DK 5800 DD 12650 DFSTR 11900
I'm putting him here because he destroys lefties. That's for sure. I do think there are some better options considering his price tab, but the results speak for themselves.

Also strongly consider Jose Bautista, Alex Rios, Yoenis Cespedes and Allen Craig

 

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