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Giancarlo Stanton
When I sorted our projections for total bases, my eyes started to bleed. Stanton's number is literally the highest I've ever seen anyone's number be. Really, it's the perfect storm. You know by now how great a place to hit Coors Field is. But have you checked in on the season lefty Franklin Morales is having? In 112 innings, dude has 76 Ks and 52 BBs. That's just terrible. I'm going to go ahead and call this the very biggest mismatch we've seen this season. Play Stanton in the top slot. Don't consider anything else.
Alex Gordon
Not your classic total bases play, but I think the case for Gordon is very strong. He's been tearing it up recently, flexing home run power, and he's got a terrific match up. The right handed Colby Lewis has only managed 33.3% ground balls this year, and leaving balls in the air in Texas is a recipe for disaster. The Royals will build upon Lewis' lost season, and Gordon will be right at the center of it.
Melky Cabrera
Jose Reyes
The Melk-man is batting .314 this year with a .331 BABIP. What this means is that if he gets the ball in play, he has a great chance to get a hit. Reyes is pretty much the same thing, but a little bit worse. Smyly is a decent pitcher, but lefties have a tough time striking out Melky and Reyes, and they are my top hits plays by far today.
Felix Hernandez
Our projection system is a lot more bullish on the Red Sox than I am. I think the writing is on the wall - these guys are throwing in the towel this season. With a 20.8% strikeout rate (that makes them the 12th easiest team in the majors to strike out) and a pathetic .305 wOBA that's 2nd worst in the AL, I think Felix goes deep and racks up a very nice number of Ks tonight.
Adam Wainwright
The Phillies are like a worse version of the Red Sox - but Wainwright isn't quite the pitcher Felix is. The Phillies have a worse wOBA (.296!) than the Sox, and strike out more as well. All systems are go for a very nice Wainwright performance.
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