Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and Draftster 8/19/14

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Pitchers

Stephen Strasburg - FD 9700 DK 10200 DD 20850 DFSTR 9000
Was all over him in a big way last time out and he only solidified why in that performance. Nothing has changed in how I feel about Stras except in a positive way. He was dominant last time out and I've been firmly in the camp that he's been massively unlucky this season. He's striking out more than 10.5 batters per nine and walking only two. The D-Backs aren't a cellar-dwelling squad but they're below average against righties. Historically, Stras has pitched better at home and I'm loving him in every format today. To spend significantly less money on him than Scherzer is a no-brainer for me.

Hisashi Iwakuma - FD 9200 DK 9900 DD 20250 DFSTR 9700
Iwakuma's been an artist this season as it appears he's made it a religion of some sort to never walk anyone. His 0.78 BB/9 rate is just plain ridiculous. He's benefited a great deal from pitching in Safeco Field and this game is in a much better hitter's park. But the Phillies have been brutal against righties this season coming in at 28th in team wOBA on that side of the split. Iwakuma won't give you an inordinate amount of K's but he makes up for it a bit in volume. Never walking anyone allows him to go later into games.

Scott Kazmir - FD 8400 DK 8200 DD 18200 DFSTR 8000
The xFIP is still trailing the ERA by about a half a run and the strikeout numbers won't blow you away, but I'm buying on Kaz today because the Mets are just so, so bad against lefties. They rank second to last in team wOBA and strike out 24% of the time. That latter number is astronomically high and increases Kazmir's K expectation on the day. Things are lining up to make him a decent mid-tier option.

Tsuyoshi Wada - FD 6300 DK 7300 DD 11850 DFSTR 5900
His last four starts have been solid and today he's in another nice spot against the Giants. San Fran comes in around the middle of the league against lefties and don't have a ton of power on that side of the split. Wada's peripherals are acceptable for his price tier and I'll buy a little on recent performance (which isn't my style necessarily).

Consider Francisco Liriano if you like to live dangerously

Catchers

Salvador Perez - FD 2800 DK 4000 DD 7550 DFSTR 4000
And we're back at Coors. It seems like only yesterday it was a flooded mess ruining people's DFS Saturday nights. Now the Royals are coming to town to face the Rockies band of merry average lefties. For his career Perez has been better against lefties, but it's been a different story this season. Babip has something to do with it though his LD% is down a bit. I'm not willing to account his struggle strictly to luck, but that doesn't preclude me from buying on him today against Matzek.

Evan Gattis - FD 2700 DK 3400 DD 8350 DFSTR 3900
Smokes lefties this season and for his career. Liriano has strikeout stuff for sure, but Gattis' numbers are a little overwhelming. This season his Babip against lefties is an ungodly .500. Our system doesn't account for this season's performance necessarily, but that number was too crazy to leave out. His OPS is over 1.200 (again, Babip) but even with bad luck this guy'd be crushing southpaws.

I'm not straying too far from either of these guys but I suppose you could roll with Buster Posey coming cheaper against Wada.

First Basemen

Billy Butler - FD 2600 DK 4100 DD 7500 DFSTR 4900
Going to be the All-Royal edition for the first time this season (and probably not again once they leave Coors). For all of his misery at the beginning of the season, Butler's turned in a decent season against lefties with a mid .800's OPS and 136 wRC+. DraftKings has price corrected for Coors, but not on FanDuel.

Mark Teixeira - FD 3000 DK 3800 DD 9000 DFSTR 4800
He's always been better against lefties and one of the main reasons his splits are down a little this year is the Babip is killing him in his lefty platoon. He has a career 141 wRC+ against lefties while it sits at 125 this season thanks in some part to a .250 Babip. That's fine, snag him today against Oberholtzer who's a mid 4's xFIP guy without any real K stuff.

Albert Pujols - FD 3600 DK 5000 DD 10750 DFSTR 10200
I know his last two games have been okay. But Allen Webster is struggling. The Angels are in a great position to light him up today. Pujols is coming at decent prices and has hit righty pitching fine this season and for his career.

Second Basemen

Javier Baez - FD 3100 DK 4200 DD 9000 DFSTR 3000
Hope you got to see what he can do to baseballs. It's kind of nasty. Baez can look lost one second and then all over balls the next. Hoping the latter is the case today against Vogelsong. Wrigley Field plays up power a bit for righties and Vogelsong won't blow hitters away. Baez's power upside is enough to buy on him in the mid-to-upper tier of prices at this position today.

Omar Infante - FD 2300 DK 3600 DD 7100 DFSTR 3000
The Royal train continues. Infante will most likely be a heavy start today considering the matchup and the park. He's a below average hitter against lefties with only a 93 wRC+ for his career in that platoon. But hitting second in the lineup at punt prices while playing in Coors is enough to swing the crappy pendulum a little.

Consider Howie Kendrick

Shortstops

Erick Aybar - FD 2600 DK 4100 DD 7400 DFSTR 4900
His contact rates typically can make him a fairly safe cash game play at a weak position. His prices, in some spots, is ranging toward the cheap and Allen Webster's been all kinds of bad this season. Webster walks more guys than he K's and is rocking an xFIP in the mid 6's. The Red Sox are content playing their young guys for better or (much) worse and you can take advantage with some Angels stacking tonight.

Alcides Escobar - FD 2300 DK 3900 DD 7550 DFSTR 6100
Let me say this first: he's not good at baseball. Fine enough against lefty pitching this season, but below average for his career, Escobar has a 113 wRC+ against LHP so far this season. That's a little Babip heavy but decent enough. He needs to add value with his wheels by stealing bases and scoring runs. Coors boosts the latter and I think our system does a good job properly weighting the ballpark effects on predicting a player's daily performance.

Consider Jean Segura against Happ though I realize Jean's been an abomination against lefty pitching this season.

Third Basemen

Aramis Ramirez - FD 3100 DK 4100 DD 8400 DFSTR 3000
JA Happ is a feast of famine type guy. Let's hope its the famine-y part today as guys like Aramis are coming in at excellent prices in a platoon split that he crushes. He's hammered lefties for his career and this season is par for his course. The OPS is over 1K and a wRC+ at 180. Those are ridiculous numbers fully supported by his historical numbers. Happ can dish out a solid game here and there, but Aramis is too good to pass up today.

Lonnie Chisenhall - FD 2400 DK 3400 DD 6350 DFSTR 3000
I've been wrong picking against Kyle Gibson before, but Chisenhall's price is depressed to it's breaking point in a few spots. He's had success in this platoon with a 130 wRC+ and .808 wOBA this season. I'm buying almost primarily on the salary flexibility he's giving here and Kyle Gibson has some flaws.

Consider Matt Dominguez

Outfielders

Mike Trout - FD 4400 DK 5500 DD 12700 DFSTR 4100
Trout's prices are reaching the lowest point you're likely to ever see. When we talk about buying at the bottom, this is the example. He was a big percentage start in cash games yesterday and today he's only cheaper with just as good (if not better) matchup againt Allen Webster. I'm not going to go through his resume as it's needless timewasting. He's the best and his salaries are nuts low.

Kole Calhoun - FD 3300 DK 4800 DD 9800 DFSTR 11100
Goes right along with Trout. Allen Webster has struggled in his major league tenure and Calhoun's been as consistent as they come. I don't love buying (or conversely not buying) on the idea of streakiness, but this is still a solid buy.

Josh Willingham - FD 3500 DK 4300 DD 9000 DFSTR 8600
He got traded to the Royals just in time. Willingham's had success against lefties for his career. He doesn't own major split differences historically, but that doesn't take away from his 130 wRC+ this season against lefties. Heading into Coors to face Matzek is the perfect spot to take advantage

Khris Davis - FD 2900 DK 3700 DD 8500 DFSTR 7300
Ryan Braun - FD 3800 DK 4700 DD 10650 DFSTR 3300
If you are looking to target some solid righties against J.A. Happ then these are your guys. Davis especially has been awesome against lefty pitching this season with a .385 wOBA and .890 OPS against that hand. It hasn't been typical Braun (I wonder why) but he still hits lefty pitching well and his salary's been dropping steadily over the short term. Could be time to scoop him. I'm leaning more Davis for safety but both guys make solid starts against Happ.

Coco Crisp - FD 2800 DK 3800 DD 8500 DFSTR 3000
Been really struggling of late. But that's fine. It's at the tail end of a slump (hopefully) that we get the best value on a guy.

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