Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and Draftster 8/16/14

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Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw - FD 12000 DK 14400 DD 21700 DFSTR 14400
With so many cheap options out there in terms of bats, I think it's totally and completely fine to run Kershaw out there today. The limb I'm going out on is holding just fine thank you. There's no debate about Kershaw's awesomeness. One only needs consider his price. Can you get away with it. Today I think you can. For such a righty-heavy lineup, the Brewers aren't great against lefty pitching and they strike out a ton, more than 22% of the time. Kershaw's last two outings have been ho-hum, but that's only by his ridiculous standards. He's a solid favorite for the win against Gallardo, and while I don't think he's a "must", in cash games I don't see a big reason to avoid him. (And I don't think I'm touching Price and King Felix facing each other)

After Clayton the waters get a little muddier...

Matt Shoemaker - FD 7200 DK 6600 DD 13550 DFSTR 8300
He's rather quietly has a real nice season posting a 3.16 xFIP that's outpacing his ERA by about three quarters of a run. His 8.67 K/9 rate and 5:1 K:BB shoe a guy getting it done. The Rangers come in around the bottom of the league against righties and have, for the most part, been really struggling lately. On a day of big ace arms taking the mound, Shoemaker could quietly have a profitable game and it especially attractive on two SP site where he can be paired with Kershaw.

Gio Gonzalez - FD 8800 DK 9300 DD 15900 DFSTR 6500
Is super frustrating as you really never know what you're going to get with him. He has flashes of awesome combined with walking the ballpark and getting bombed. He could go seven innings strong or be at 85 pitches in the third. It's a crapshoot. Today he gets the Pirates who rank in the bottom of third of the league against lefties. Gio can strike out almost ten batters per nine. But the walks. Oh the walks.

Consider Wade Miley and Rubby de la Rosa

 

Catchers

Welington Castillo - FD 2200 DK 3200 DD 6000 DFSTR 3000
I'm really liking the prices on Castillo against Niese today. He's coming at punt prices against a lefty. Castillo has a .756 OPS and 11 wRC+ in the lefty platoon this season, numbers plenty good enough for his near minimum salaries across the industry. The position isn't easy to fill on any given day so not having to overpay for a dude with very little downside on the better side of his split is more than enough reason for me.

Wilin Rosario - FD 3000 DK 3800 DD 8200 DFSTR 6900
He's much better against lefty hitters (much, much better), but as you'll see as you read on in this piece Dylan Axelrod is bad against just about everyone. He's allowed a career .371 wOBA against righties and it's over a fairly decent sample size. Only the ballpark and the matchup have me even considering this because of Rosario's deficiencies against righties. But sometimes those other pieces make up the difference.

Chris Iannetta - FD 2500 DK 3300 DD 6200 DFSTR 4000
I'm going back to the Colby Lewis well for another round this season. Lewis has had his moments. But they are few and far between. Iannetta is just kind of a guy that bats ninth. But if he gets on the dudes hitting "behind him" are Calhoun and Trout. It's something.

 

First Basemen

Justin Morneau - FD 3600 DK 4500 DD 10000 DFSTR 8300
Again, you are going to see so many Rockies on this list tonight and in the leagues your playing. Morneau's been awesome at home this season. In Coors against righties Morneau has a 149 wRC+ and .940 OPS. There are reasons Axelrod hasn't been able to stick in the majors. One of them is that he's allowed a career .849 OPS to righty hitters. All over Morneau today.

Jose Abreu - FD 4000 DK 4900 DD 11250 DFSTR 3000
Gets to face the lefty Buehrle in U.S. Cellular. Those two things alone are enough for me to overlook that a big part of Abreu's success this season is his unfathomable 40% Hr/FB% against lefties. This simply is not sustainable and means we really can't expect him to keep up this kind of power over the long term. Even with this in mind he's still a solid play today as the lefty/righty matchup is choice and the ballpark boosts power.

Strongly consider Edwin Encarnacion against Danks, and David Ortiz but you'll have to pay.

 

Second Basemen

Dee Gordon - FD 2900 DK 4000 DD 8750 DFSTR 5900
Was a popular cash game play yesterday and should remain so today as he's still coming cheap and has been doing the thing(s) that are his only paths to value. i.e. getting on base and stealing. If he isn't do those especially the latter he's useless. Yovani Gallardo is about average, but Gordon's prices make him much easier to squeeze into games especially if you are paying up for pitching.

Jason Kipnis - FD 3700 DK 4400 DD 9050 DFSTR 5500
Real tough to fill this position with anyone who either A: has good pts/$ value or B: can play baseball. Kipnis doesn't exactly fill the first consideration, but he can at least play. Ubaldo Jimenez was decent in his first start back from the DL, but is generally cooked. Kipnis has the power/speed threat that makes him ideally suited for DFS in that his floor stays real high on any given day. The salary is a little tough to wiggle, but second base is bad.

Strongly consider the Rockies guys D.J. LeMahieu or Charlie Culberson as punts against Axelrod

 

Shortstops

Starlin Castro - FD 3200 DK 4100 DD 8200 DFSTR 3600
You'll have to pull a slight overpay for the guy, but he gets to face the lefty Jon Niese who doesn't have any big strikeout stuff. Castro's been better this season and his career against lefties with a 2014 OPS over .800 in that split. It's a little Babip-y but the career numbers favor the lefty platoon. Not a great ballpark, but Castro isn't a big power guy anyway.

Erick Aybar - FD 2500 DK 3800 DD 7250 DFSTR 4000
Had a rough go of it yesterday but that's why teams bring guys like Colby Lewis around every few days, to cheer up opposing batters. As we've said before with Aybar, he's a contact guy through and through. The frustrating piece of that is he grounds out a lot. But putting the ball in play on a consistent basis at his prices is about all you can ask for from a shortstop. The price won't break the bank and for his contact rate I like putting him in cash games with Kershaw.

Consider Josh Rutledge (if he plays) and Didi Gregorius

 

Third Basemen

Danny Valencia - FD 2200 DK 2500 DD 6100 DFSTR 3500
Have you had a chance to see what he's done to lefty pitching this season? If not, allow me to share. With the help of a little Babip Valencia is rocking a .913 OPS and 157 wRC+. Even with the help of some luck they still speak to a guy hitting much better (almost solely) against lefties. He's coming in at punt prices and if you are trying to fit a guy like Kershaw, Valencia is the perfect option against Danks.

Lonnie Chisenhall - FD 2600 DK 3400 DD 7000 DFSTR 3000
Another cheap guy who's had success in the a particular platoon split. Chisenhall's .809 OPS and 130 wRC+ are fine enough considering he's a lower tier salary guy squaring up against Ubaldo. On a day when we are trying to find cheap, productive bats all over the place I like Lonnie's power upside and matchup against a guy who can walk everyone and everything.

Consider Brock Holt against Brad Peacock

 

Outfielders

Corey Dickerson - FD 4000 DK 4800 DD 10450 DFSTR 9800
Charlie Blackmon - FD 2700 DK 3600 DD 9300 DFSTR 3000
Easy calls here as both are in a great spot against Axelrod. Their price points are different and I'd go so far as to say Blackmon is a must start considering his super cheap salaries nearly across the industry. Hitting leadoff against a garbage pitcher is a good place to start. He's come back down to Earth for sure since the beginning of the season, but considering the park and his position in the lineup, the .776 OPS against righties works. Dickerson meanwhile has kept it going from Jump Street. He's been among the best hitters against righty pitchers in all of baseball. In fact, among qualified guys he's been the best. Get on both of these guys today without hesitation.

Kole Calhoun - FD 3300 DK 4100 DD 8900 DFSTR 6500
I'm really not one to buy completely into hot streaks and our system doesn't factor them in at all. That being said, he's been on fire and our projections have him still ranking out as one of the top OF plays against Colby Lewis. The DraftKings prices has finally corrected some, but not enough.

Billy Hamilton - FD 3400 DK 4600 DD 7950 DFSTR 3300
Jay Bruce - FD 3000 DK 4600 DD 8750 DFSTR 4500
Still paying in Coors and facing the righty Jordan Lyles. Lyles isn't horrendous mostly because of a high groundball rate (the only avenue to any success in Coors) but I'm still buying these two guys on the park and the upside. Neither breaks the bank and offers a fair amount of value considering their skill sets.

Jose Bautista - FD 4200 DK 5200 DD 11650 DFSTR 5900
Gets the lefty Danks in a great hitter's park. Joey Bats has annihilated lefty pitching for his career and this season is no exception. His 1.140 OPS in that split is right near the top of the league and is the best for hitters with more than 100 PAs against lefties this season. He's crushing and Danks is getting raked by righties this season.

Consider Josh Hamilton and Marcell Ozuna
Give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr and @dougnorrie.

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