Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and Draftster 8/14/14

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Pitchers

Early
Max Scherzer - FD 10900 DK 12000 DD 20750 DFSTR 11200
Some things to not like about Scherzer in this spot but with the early slate such a short one I think it makes almost total sense to choose the top arm and hope for the best. And it isn’t like Scherzer’s been some stiff or anything. He strikes out more than ten per nine and has a 3.11 xFIP. The problem is more that the Pirates rate out so high against righties, coming in at third in team wOBA. But there are plenty of cheap plays that make Scherzer easy to fit and I don’t see much else to like here in the way of arms.

Consider Edwin Jackson coming super cheap if you want a little K upside. But this is GPP only and even then it’s not great.

Late
Stephen Strasburg - FD 9400 DK 9600 DD 19600 DFSTR 8400
And once again I fall down the rabbit hole, but how can we fade him on the late slate? The easy answer is we don’t. I’m one of the biggest Strasburg apologists around. His numbers this season remain ridiculous in every way except the ERA. His xFIP is in the mid 2’s and he’s striking out more than ten batters nine. The Mets rank 24th in the league in team wOBA against righties. Stras would be my top play even in a full slate of games. One a short night? It’s a no-brainer.

John Lackey - FD 7600 DK 8400 DD 13100 DFSTR 5500
Padres have come around a bit over the last couple of weeks, no longer just rolling over and giving up before the start of every game. Lackey’s a solid if unspectacular cash game play pairing with Strasburg on two pitcher sites. Again, I’m all over Stras and am prepared to catch some heat for it. It’s fine. I’m a man of conviction. (Whatever that means) Lackey’s price and opponent combined with a decent peripherals make him in play.

Consider Jake Odorizzi

Catchers

Early
Evan Gattis - FD 2800 DK 3400 DD 7950 DFSTR 3000
I’m no fan of snagging him against righty pitching although he has been slightly above average in that side of the split this season. His 113 wRC+ is a trickle above average and against Roberto Hernandez he becomes a little more intriguing considering Roberto’s just plain bad. Dude doesn’t strike anyone out and has an xFIP in the mid fours. Not a ton of catchers in the early slate worth considering but Gattis has some power upside.

Consider Jonathan Lucroy

Late
Devin Mesoraco - FD 3900 DK 4800 DD 9450 DFSTR 9700
Couple of fairly easy choices for the late slate. First off it’s Mesoraco making his way into Coors. So get excited for that. Mesoraco is manhandling lefty pitching this season with an OPS in the mid .900’s and a 158 wRC+. Some of this is luck aided but whatever. Even with regression he’s still smoking the ball. Jorge de la Rosa does generate his fair share of ground balls, but by-and-by he is nothing more than an average pitcher. Mesoraco will be a cash game favorite tonight.

Miguel Montero - FD 2800 DK 3700 DD 8600 DFSTR 6400
If you want to go cheaper then Montero is your man. Marlins Stadium doesn’t do hitters any favors. But I have to believe Brad Penny will. Montero’s been solid against righty pitching this season with a 121 wRC+ and the price allows some flexibility elsewhere. If you fade Meso in Coors then this is a solid option.
 

First Basemen

Early
Freddie Freeman - FD 3700 DK 4600 DD 10750 DFSTR 7400
Going to pick on Hernandez when I can considering the guy lets hitters pick on him plenty. Freeman’s price has taken a dip over the short term and this is a great time to buy pretty low. He’s been successful against righty pitching this season with an .875 OPS platoon split thanks in large part to a great walk rate. Hernandez is going to struggle getting past Freeman in this one.

Anthony Rizzo - FD 3800 DK 4900 DD 9600 DFSTR 3000
I think I prefer Freeman for just a smidge lower in price, but Rizzo makes a great play as well against Michael Fiers. Don’t be at all fooled by Fiers’ low ERA in the small sample. He’s a Quad A pitcher without any meaningful major league swing and miss stuff. Rizzo’s patience has been solid this season and though the righty platoon split has dropped some I think he’s still a great value with the matchup.

Late
Justin Morneau - FD 3500 DK 4500 DD 9850 DFSTR 9100
Welcome back to Coors Justin, I’m assuming it feels good to be home. Morneau’s taken more than a little advantage of his time in the Denver area seeing the sites, meeting people and completely crushing righty pitching at home. His v rhp numbers in Coors include a .953 OPS and 152 rWC+. Alfredo Simon is garbage. This is your cash and GPP play for sure.

Consider Garrett Jones if you want to get cute.
 

Second Basemen

Early
Javier Baez - FD 3000 DK 4500 DD 10450 DFSTR 5800
Has had a nice little time since getting called up and last night kept the party rolling. I want to target some plays against Fiers and Baez at the top of the Cubs order fits the bill. The sample sizes are too small to really hone in on his major league platoon splits. That’s fine, the price is cheap enough in some spots and Fiers is barely a major league pitcher.

Dee Gordon - FD 2900 DK 3900 DD 7950 DFSTR 3000
His price has plummeted of late mainly on his lack of steals over the short term. Speed is his primary (only) weapon and when he isn’t getting on and running he’s basically worthless. Harang isn’t a big strikeout guy and does tend to walk more than his fair share. This might be a good time to play Dee on the cheap and hope he can reach first.

Late
Jose Altuve - FD 4000 DK 5000 DD 10150 DFSTR 10100
If you want to pay up here Altuve is in a fine spot against Allen Webster who’s been completely terrible in his limited major league run. Dude is walking more batters than he’s striking out and is just generally a mess. Altuve’s price is high but he strikes me as a cash game play because his contact rate keeps his floor high.

DJ LeMahieu - FD 2200 DK 2800 DD 6150 DFSTR 3000
The late slate is just brutal for this position leaving me inclined to just choose a min-salary guy going against an average pitcher in the best hitter’s ballpark in the universe. Nothing sexy about it, but there’s little downside at his prices and I think the Rockies will put up some runs against Simon.

Shortstops

Early
Good luck. It’s all bad. Here are some guys who seem to not make me want to puke as bad as some other guys in this slate. Ah, who am I kidding? They all make me sick.
Jean Segura - FD 2200 DK 3000 DD 6900 DFSTR 3000
Starlin Castro - FD 3200 DK 4300 DD 8400 DFSTR 4800
These guys come at different price points and I suppose it should come down to a money thing here. I'm comfortable just going cheap as possible with Segura, but if you are in a Cubs stack or just have it left then Castro has a tad bit of value. But it's not much.

Late
Zack Cozart - FD 2400 DK 3400 DD 6450 DFSTR 7800
Coors Field. And that’s all you need to know. It’s not that I think Coors is the be all, end all when it comes to determining value on a given day. There are a number of other factors to consider. But it sure does help and Cozart facing a lefty makes it palpable even though he does kind of stink. But he’s a punt play and the downside is mitigated by the park factors.

Didi Gregorius - FD 2600 DK 3600 DD 6850 DFSTR 3000
No guarantee that donkey Kirk Gibson puts him in the lineup. But he should. Didi’s significantly better against righties for his career and has solid .372 wOBA and .862 OPS in that platoon this season. Shortstop is always tough to fill and on shorter slates it can become areal problem. This seems a safer play against Brad Penny.

Third Basemen

Early
Aramis Ramirez - FD 3200 DK 4400 DD 8600 DFSTR 5800
I really don’t love this play but third base is real tough to fill on the early slate. Honestly, there are barely any relevant guys to even pick from. Aramis rates out simply as a guy who hits in the middle of the lineup and isn’t atrocious against right-handed pitching. Edwin Jackson has enormous blow up potential even if he’s run a little bad this season. Again, I don’t love this play but there are very few options.

Consider Luis Valbuena

Late
Todd Frazier - FD 3100 DK 4700 DD 9550 DFSTR 8200
The late slate on the other hand is a totally different story. This one’s easy. Frazier’s had a nice run against righty pitching this season and is better on this side of the split for his career. He’s taking a .365 wOBA into Coors to face Jorge de la Rosa and he will be an extremely high percentage play across the industry simply on the platoon ands and ballpark. Take advantage. There are ways to fade him, but cash games at the very least you should have him in your lineups.

Evan Longoria - FD 3300 DK 4400 DD 8900 DFSTR 3100
Longo is one of those ways to fade Coors. The Ballpark in Arlington plays really well for righty power and Longoria’s had a career on facing lefty pitching. It hasn’t been all gravy this season, but facing Robbie Ross makes for a nice way to get away from Frazier if you see fit.

Outfielders

Early
Yasiel Puig - FD 3500 DK 4600 DD 11100 DFSTR 3600
Price has fallen to a point that’s kind of nuts. He’s hammered righty pitching this season with the help of some inflated Babip and ranks out near the top of the league with a .967 OPS and 174 wRC+. He faces Harang who basically stinks and the Dodgers make a solid early slate stacking option.

Carl Crawford - FD 2800 DK 3500 DD 7800 DFSTR 6800
Been kind of tearing it up lately. And while I’m not one to buy into hot streaks I am mostly looking for if he’s getting the consistent playing time and coming at value price in the right platoon. Check and check.

Consider Marcell Ozuna mostly because Chase Anderson has been awful against righties this year.

Late
Corey Dickerson - FD 4000 DK 4600 DD 10100 DFSTR 13500
Charlie Blackmon - FD 2500 DK 3400 DD 8850 DFSTR 3000
Again, I’m not putting too much thought into what’s happening here and I suggest you take it easy as well. Alfredo Simon is a bit prone to the long ball and he’s heading into a place where you can’t exactly make mistakes. Dickerson has been especially unforgiving to righty pitching this season as he essentially leads the league in wOBA against righty pitching with a ridiculous .420 mark. Blackmon on the other hand has cooled off considerably since an early season Hall of Fame run, but his price is too low to ignore now. These guys will be all over cash and GPP games tonight.

Ryan Ludwick - FD 2300 DK 3600 DD 6250 DFSTR 3000
Coming on the cheaper side. He’s not a stud but hitting in the middle of the order in Coors against a lefty adds a nice little multiplier to his expectation. Ludwick is just above average facing lefty pitchers, but at punt prices that’s kind of all you need in Coors.
Consider Bryce Harper

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