Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and StarStreet 8/13/14

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Pitchers

Good news first. Some crappy pitcher is going to win people money tonight. Bad news: You need to wade through a bunch of crappy pitchers and matchups to find the winner.

Jordan Zimmermann - FD 8700 DK 9200 DD 17550 SS 26700
I'm actually surprised our system doesn't like Zimmerman more today, but I suspect he'll be a fairly heavy cash game play because of the matchup and the park. The Mets rank in the bottom third of the league in team wOBA against righties and Zimmerman has been kind of great this season. He's striking out more than eight batters per nine and walking almost no one. Among qualified starters he has one of the lower BB%'s in the league. This is such a solid spot even against Big Fat Bartolo Colon.

Jose Quintana - FD 7600 DK 8100 DD 16000 SS 22800
Has had a decent enough season with an xFIP in the mid three's and fine enough peripherals. Really trying to pick up some value on the margins and this price tier is a bit of a log jam. Could just as easily make case for Jered Weaver except Quintana has a better xFIP while Weaver has a better matchup. I'll take the dude over the opponent in the slightest of edges here.

Ian Kennedy - FD 7600 DK 8300 DD 15750 SS 23500
Oof, doesn't feel great. But the Rockies aren't exactly the same mashing team on the road. In fact, away from Coors the Rockies are ranked 28th in team wOBA. That's such a significant drop and I'm willing to buy Kennedy not primarily, but heavily on this discrepancy. It's stark. Kennedy is fine enough, striking out his fair share while walking some too. It isn't all aces, but he's coming very cheap and this game going in San Diego means the power upside for the Rockies is severely limited.

Kyle Lohse - FD 6900 DK 8000 DD 15200 SS 21400
Cubs are brutal against righties this season. Just brutal. They strike out more than 22% of the time in that split and rank 28th in the league with a .292 wOBA against righties. Lohse is kind of just whatever, but this is a matchup and price play more than anything else.

Catchers

Early
Jason Castro - FD 2900 DK 3800 DD 7350 SS 6000
Kyle Gibson is such a weird guy. He doesn’t strike anyone out (less than 5 K’s per 9) and walks a fair amount, yet he doesn’t get systematically rocked. I’ll take Castro against him though as Jason’s primary issue is the strikeout. If we can decrease that expectation we can look for a little upside. Though it should be mentioned that Gibson makes somewhat of a living on inducing groundballs.

Late
Jonathan Lucroy - FD 3400 DK 4100 DD 9400 SS 7100
Been a long time since I talked about the guy, mostly because his price has been out of bounds over the short term. Not any more, he's slowly crept back down and now is priced in the mid tier against the lefty Wada. Wada's no slouch, but Lucroy's splits outweigh some of the former's track record. It's been business as usual for Lucroy on this side of the split with an .893 OPS and 146 wRC+ against lefty pitching even in the face of a crazy low Hr/Fb%. Seems like a good time to reacquaint myself with the guy.

Miguel Montero - FD 2800 DK 3700 DD 8600 SS 5700
Trevor Bauer is some other level of wild. He can bring the swing and miss stuff for sure, but a relatively patient hitter like Montero could give him fits. Montero’s walk rate is at about 11% against righty pitching and his OPS is in the low .800’s; not bad for a catcher.

First Basemen

Early
David Ortiz - FD 4100 DK 4300 DD 9950 SS 8200
Really liking this spot for Ortiz. Though it’s been a rough season for Papi, he still has some power left in that bat and Great American Ballpark is a pretty decent spot to bring it out. So it facing Mike Leake. Leake induces a fair amount of groundballs, but when you can get one up in the air, watch out. Ortiz is running horrible with Babip this season (.222 against rhp) which has kept some of his overall numbers down. I like rolling him out there in the early slate on the power upside.

Consider Adam Dunn

Late
Miguel Cabrera - FD 4400 DK 5300 DD 11300 SS 9600
I’m willing to spend a little at first base today. A little has been made of Miggy’s struggles this season as I’ve seen some people pointing out his triple slash line in comparison with some other, much less touted players. That’s fine. He isn’t putting up superstar numbers but the .873 OPS against righties doesn’t exactly make him a bum. Vance Worley isn’t nearly the pitcher his 2.30 ERA would suggest and he’ll have trouble putting Miggy down on strikes. Points against for the ballpark, but still a good matchup.

Consider Mark Teixeira coming real cheap in a hitter’s park against Tillman.

Second Basemen

Early
Jose Altuve - FD 3900 DK 4700 DD 10100 SS 8700
It’s a wild overpay but he should have his bat on the ball plenty against Gibson. Altuve is fine enough against righty pitching though I’d much prefer him on the other side of the split. But the contact rate versus Gibson’s low K percentage make this seem kind of safe all things considered. With the state of the early slate pitching I think you can spend up on him.

Consider Dustin Pedroia against Leake.

Late
Javier Baez - FD 3100 DK 4700 DD 10450 SS 6000
Honestly, it doesn’t get much better at second in the late slate. Could be worse actually, but with a bigger player pool. Makes me a little uncomfortable spending this much against one of the “better” arms going on the day. But the pickings are slim. He’s been sneaking out some hits and coming in at the mid tier in the position isn’t all bad here.

Consider Stephen Drew if you want to just punt away the position. No one would blame you.

Shortstops

Early
Brandon Crawford - FD 2200 DK 2900 DD 6200 SS 4700
Good luck. I’ve never seen a more sorry group of options at a position. It’s pathetic. Crawford has luck-boxed his way into a .900 OPS against lefty pitching this season though I guess an OPS that high can’t be all good fortune. He’s at punt prices against Quintana and all of a sudden I’m having trouble getting the money in for the early games.

Consider: Not playing this early slate.

Late
Erick Aybar - FD 2500 DK 3400 DD 7150 SS 5600
Is such a tough guy to strike out and that’s going to be a real problem for A.J. Burnett today. If A.J. can’t get you to swing and miss he really, really struggles as the walks pile up and he can’t get out of innings. The Angels could really grind him today and Aybar is one of those guys. His K rate against righties is less than 10% and he should put the ball in play.

Consider Jean Segura coming at the minimum against the lefty Wada.

Third Basemen

Early
Todd Frazier - FD 3100 DK 4500 DD 9500 SS 7400
Brock Holt - FD 2500 DK 3200 DD 7850 SS 6000
I’d take either one of these guys depending on my salary constraints. I suspect you’ll want to go a little more expensive with Frazier only because his point expectation is a smidge higher than Holt’s and it’s tough to spend the allotted salary in this early slate. Frazier’s been fine enough against righty hitting this season and Ranaudo is a middling prospect who struggled in his first start this year. Holt meanwhile is a little cheaper hitting at the top of the order against Leake. Again, this early slate is real rough.

Late
Josh Donaldson - FD 4100 DK 4700 DD 10050 SS 8500
He put on a show last night and could get even more going tonight against Vargas. Consider this: Donaldson has a 1.080 OPS against lefty pitching this season and that’s even while carrying a .236 Babip. Insane that he could be both that unlucky and that productive at the same time. It just means what we already know: this guy destroys lefties.

Kyle Seager - FD 3200 DK 3900 DD 9250 SS 7900
While R.A. Dickey’s had his moments this season, for the most part he’s struggled to find anything close to consistency. The K’s are down, the walks are up and his xFIP sits in the low fours. Meanwhile Seager’s been one of the better vRHP guys in the league with an .890 OPS and 150 wRC+ in that platoon. The ballpark does no favors of course but this is one of the better platoon plays at the position tonight.

Consider Martin Prado if Chen is starting for O’s.

Outfielders

Early
Billy Hamilton - FD 3400 DK 4400 DD 8500 SS 7200
Jay Bruce - FD 3000 DK 4400 DD 9000 SS 7500
Both seem rather obvious and I suspect they will be monster percentage starts in the early slate. Hitting at the top of the order against Ranaudo who didn’t post outstanding K numbers in the minors leave both of these guys in great positions, albeit for decidedly different reasons. Hamilton offers the crazy speed and Bruce the big power. Both are coming at bargains considering the rest of the slate and don’t be surprised if you see their cash game starts over 70%.

Consider Chris Carter because whatever.

Late
Kole Calhoun - FD 3200 DK 3500 DD 8450 SS 7300
Josh Hamilton - FD 3000 DK 3700 DD 8400 SS 7000
A.J. Burnett has spent the better part of this season getting smoked by lefty hitting. He’s allowing more than an .800 OPS to that side of the platoon and these two guys offer some nice value at middling prices. I’d probably only do Hamilton in a GPP because of the strikeout issues, but consider Calhoun a great play in any scenario. He’s raked righty pitching this season and has a 137 wRC+ on that split. He’ll be a popular cash game play.

Matt Joyce - FD 2900 DK 3500 DD 7350 SS 5700
He’s still coming on the cheaper side and faces Miles Mikolas, a dude striking out less than seven batters per nine, walking a fair share and sporting an xFIP in the mid fours. It all lines up for Joyce to have a solid night in the middle of the lineup rocking a hitter’s park in Arlington.

Consider Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran if Tillman is the starter.

Give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr and @dougnorrie.

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