Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and StarStreet 8/11/14

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Pitchers

Oh my goodness is this position a disaster today. As difficult a decision as I can remember. In some ways that makes me want to just chuck Felix out there and hope. But he’s also facing the top righty hitting team in baseball. And you’d be paying so much for very little upside considering the matchup.

But honestly the guys below him are all in tough matchups as well or just aren’t that good to begin with (or both). I think I’m of the mind to just populate lineups with the top end hitters on the day, spending as much as possible on value bats and then rotate a cast of losers through the pitching slots on the hopes one will come through with a Hail Mary.

So long story short, let it be known that I don’t feel super about any of these guys.

Yovani Gallardo - FD 6900 DK 7300 DD 14600 SS 21600
Makes the most interesting mid-tier guy on the day mostly considering the matchup. The Cubbies rank near the very bottom of the league in team wOBA against righties and just generally stink in that platoon. They strike out a lot throughout the lineup (outside of Rizzo) and the bottom of the order becomes a black hole real quick. Gallardo’s peripherals aren’t solid with only about seven K’s per nine a walk rate that doesn’t allow him a lot of room for error. It’s dicey, but his salary gets some heavy hitters in your lineup, and there is a chance he goes seven innings with some strikeouts and the win.

Drew Hutchison - FD 6300 DK 6000 DD 12350 SS 18900
The Mariners are a middle of the road team against righties and don’t possess a whole lot of power that allows a game to get out of hand quickly. Safeco keeps down power and Hutchison’s strikeout rate is fine enough. The big problem here is that the win expectation is so low facing King Felix.

Dan Haren - FD 6800 DK 5700 DD 12850 SS 16000
This is a real roll of the dice. Atlanta is real bad against righties, but Haren is actually worse against righties so that mitigates the upside a bit. Haren’s K’s are low, but so are the walks. The xFIP is about three quarters a run lower than the ERA making his price a little artificially deflated. That being said, I can see him getting bombed.

Catchers

Evan Gattis - FD 2900 DK 3300 DD 7900 SS 6200
I much prefer The Grape against lefties, but can talk myself into it today against Dan Haren. Gattis is fine enough against righties and this season has a slightly above average 115 wRC+ in that platoon. Haren is actually a reverse splits guy for his career and is worse against righty bats but about thirty OPS points. These factors make Gattis a fair value as he's coming super cheap almost everywhere today.

J.P. Arencibia - FD 3200 DK 3600 DD 8550 SS 6900
Robinson Chirinos - FD 2900 DK 3300 DD 5900 SS 5300
I'm willing to rock either of these guys if they make their way into the starting lineup. Arencibia's price has risen just about to the breaking point off of short-term performance. I'm still willing to consider him but he isn't exactly a punt play. Chirinos is here as a rec on the off chance he makes it into the lineup today.

First Basemen

Man I kind of don't want anything to do with this position today. Seems like one big trap. When in doubt on a day like today go with your guy. Which is to say: Guess and hope.

Steve Pearce - FD 3100 DK 3500 DD 6900 SS 6400
This is simply a one-off on the chance that he’s playing against the lefty Capuano, and I think he will be. Pearce has crushed lefty pitching this season with a 1.076 OPS and .462 wOBA. There is some luck tied in here, and the sample size is small, but first base is thin and I can talk myself into him on the short term returns.

If you want to spend I’d go:
Miguel Cabrera - FD 4400 DK 5200 DD 11300 SS 9400
Doesn’t have a great multiplier even against the lefty Locke. Part of it is park factors as Pittsburgh really depresses power to righties. Though Miggy can live in the gaps, reducing his power expectation is no small thing. The problem is a bunch of the other guys here stink.

If you want to completely punt go
James Loney - FD 2700 DK 3700 DD 7050 SS 5200
On the super cheap against Colby Lewis. Loney is the definition of average. Good enough for me today with the matchup and the ballpark.

Second Basemen

Ben Zobrist - FD 4100 DK 4600 DD 9500 SS 8800
Colby Lewis has cut out the part of his game where he’s an unmitigated disaster and is now operating simply as a mediocre pitcher. Zobrist’s Babip is a bit low (though he’s historically low in this stat) and he’s been much better against lefties this season (though not for his career). I’m still willing to buy him against the righty here especially on a day where good, solid offense is going to be hard to come by.

Ian Kinsler - FD 3300 DK 4100 DD 9200 SS 7300
Wouldn’t be surprised to see some Tigers get the day off today after playing that marathon yesterday. They essentially played a back-to-back double header. Kinsler faces Jeff Locke who’s reverse splits for his career, but Kinsler meets him in the middle by being better against lefty pitching.

Strongly consider Jose Altuve

Shortstops

Elvis Andrus - FD 2600 DK 3700 DD 8150 SS 6500
Shortstop is always tough and only made tougher with Tulo and Hanley (basically the only two guys at the position who hit) on the shelf. Andrus though is in a fine spot against the below-average Drew Smyly. Smyly's xFIP is close to five and Andrus is fine enough on this side of the split with a Babip-aided 136 wRC+ on the season. Even with the luck factor he's been a fine enough hitter and the upside compounds because the guys hitting behind him are also better against LHP.

Jhonny Peralta - FD 2600 DK 3500 DD 8400 SS 5600
Kind of stinks but so does Tom Koehler who sports a K/9 lower than seven and also issues a ton of walks. Peralta isn't good necessarily, but is fine enough against righty pitching with a .750 OPS on the season. Again, this is a price play against a weak pitcher. Not too much more than that, but the position is weaker.

Consider Eugenio Suarez

Third Basemen

Adrian Beltre - FD 3400 DK 4200 DD 9600 SS 8200
Is far and away the cash game play at the position today. His prices are completely reasonable across the industry and he offers some pretty hefty upside against Smyly in Texas. The Ballpark in Arlington boosts power for righties and Beltre’s mashed lefty pitching this season and historically. His 2014 OPS is over .900 on that side of the split and he’ll be a heavy percentage start on this slate.

Beltre is going to be one of my most widely-used plays today, but you can also consider Matt Dominguez and Nick Castellanos if you’re looking to go a little cheaper.

Outfielders

The decisions here, for me, are pretty cut and dry.

Nelson Cruz - FD 3300 DK 4400 DD 9650 SS 7800
Coming at a significant discount today all things considered. The prices seem way low industry-wide considering he’s facing a middling lefty in one of the best hitter’s parks in all of baseball. Camden Yards aids power for righties and though Capuano’s had some early success, I’m not completely buying it. I am though will to completely buy in on Cruz today as he’s been one of the best hitters against lefties this season. His platoon is a mid .900’s OPS and a wOBA over .400. I’m all over it.

Matt Joyce - FD 2800 DK 3500 DD 7250 SS 5800
Again, I want to target Colby Lewis on a day when a bunch of slightly above average arms are taking the hill. Joyce is a one-way platoon guy so we’re only really ever talking about him against righties. And he gets the job done against them. His 130 wRC+ against RHP this season is a good place to start and that’s with a super low 6.9% HR/Fb ratio. Arlington can solve some of those power issues in a hurry and Joyce is coming cheap.

Jacoby Ellsbury - FD 3800 DK 4200 DD 9750 SS 8000
The Yankees are a tough nut to crack. It seems (from the illogical gambling part of my brain) that they crap the bad against crappy pitching and turn it on days when you avoid them. I know this is conjecture but it feels like they’ve burned me a ton this season. Whatever, I’m going back to the well with Ellsbury against Bud Norris who strikes out less than seven batters per nine and has an xFIP in the low 4’s.

Adam Jones - FD 3900 DK 4500 DD 9100 SS 7800
Could be nice to go with Cruz in a stack. I prefer Nelson for the money, but Jones has some power upside today against Capuano. Adam’s been a reverse splits guy for his career though this year’s been a different story as he’s been raking lefty pitching. A lot of Babip and HR/FB% luck to go there, but the 1,000+ OPS in that split doesn’t happen unless you’re doing something right.

Consider Christian Yelich and Carlos Beltran

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