Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and StarStreet 8/4/14

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Pitchers

Corey Kluber - FD 10200 DK 9800 DD 20250 SS 33000
Tough pitching choices today on such a short slate. You'll have to scrape out the value where you can. I think Kluber gives you the best chances considering the opponent and price among the top tier of arms. Kluber has (somewhat quietly) had a phenomenal season. 2.70 xFIP ranks among the best in the league and his peripherals are off the charts good, striking out almost ten batters per nine while walking less than two batters in the same stretch. He faces the Reds, a team that ranks 25th in team wOBA against righties. They strike out around 20% of the time and considering all options, I think Kluber makes the safest bet.

Jeff Samardzija - FD 8100 DK 8500 DD 18050 SS 25500
Not the greatest matchup in the whole world, but considering the limited options and the price, he makes for a solid (if unspectacular) start against the Rays. Tampa Bay is fine enough against righties and don't strike out a ton. But Samardzija is a live arm with an xFIP in the low threes (his ERA is a bit lower) and strikes out about eight per nine. That's good enough I think considering he's in the mid tier of pitchers. His K upside probably isn't there, but I also don't imagine he gets shelled in this one.

 

Catchers

Alex Avila - FD 2500 DK 3400 DD 6450 SS 4900
The strikeout rate is completely out of hand against righties, but considering that's his biggest issue we can reduce the expectation just a tad against Brandon McCarthy who only K's about 7.5 per nine (decent, not great). The ballpark also gives Avila a boost as the short porch in right could help him sneak one over.

Consider Victor Martinez for many of the same reasons as Avila but the price is a little tougher to handle.

 

First Basemen

Adam Dunn - FD 3100 DK 4200 DD 9050 SS 6100
Sat yesterday though that seems like just a rest day. Nick Martinez is a dude you want to target and for good reason. He blows. Dunn makes an especially interesting play against him because the country boy's biggest issue is the strike out. Martinez doesn't get down on those striking out less than four batters per nine walking slightly more. You won't get many worse arms going every five days. Start playing White Sox in bunches today.

Consider Adam Laroche coming on the cheaper side against Gausman and Jose Abreu against Martinez.

 

Second Basemen

Jason Kipnis - FD 3800 DK 4500 DD 8900 SS 7500
Another bad arm on the docket is Alfredo Simon. He isn't Nick Martinez bad (few are) but his xFIP is right around four and he won't blow hitters away in striking out less than six batters per nine. Though Kipnis doesn't rate out the highest in our system in terms of value, I think this is a position to overspend a bit today because the other plays have questions marks or tougher matchups. Kipnis provides the duel power and speed threat that makes him suited for cash games with the upside of putting it all together in one outing.

Consider Rougned Odor against Noesi and Gordon Beckham mostly because Martinez is so garbage-y. Beckham is cheap but bad against righties.

 

Shortstops

Asdrubal Cabrera - FD 2700 DK 4100 DD 7350 SS 5900
Not a sexy pick (or human being) but Asdrubal playing second for the Nats (qualifying at shortstop in DFS) has just enough in that stat line to make a play for today. He isn't an exciting play, but considering Kevin Gausman's been worse thanhis 3.70 ERA (4.35 xFIP) and low 5.95 K/9 rate, I think Asdrubal can be a safer play at a notoriously tough position. With so many power arms going today I think you want to avoid the strikeouts as much as possible. Targeting guys hitting against Gausman and a few others is the play.

Strongly consider Elvis Andrus for the speed upside and run potential against Hector Noesi. Andrus is coming cheap and hitting at the top of the lineup. Though this is the wrong side of his split.

Consider Alexei Ramirez though he's a bit expensive considering he's worse against righties. Though it should be said that everyone is good against Nicky Martinez.

 

Third Basemen

Conor Gillaspie - FD 3000 DK 4100 DD 7600 SS 6100
Gillaspie's been one of the best hitters in baseball against righties this season. Granted, our system doesn't factor that piece of it in though his early success has probably influenced (a little) his outward projections. It mostly makes me just feel good to know that the success has been there. His OPS against righties is over .900 with a little boost from him close-to-.400 Babip. But that bit of luck is mitigated somewhat by a crazy low 5% Hr/FB rate. Gillaspie's success meets somewhere in the middle and I think you should start him almost everywhere against Nick Martinez (today's theme if you haven't noticed).

Adrian Beltre - FD 3700 DK 4600 DD 9900 SS 8300
Vastly prefer him against lefties, but Hector Noesi is another one of those garbage arms going today. Not as bad as his high 5’s ERA would suggest, Noesi still carries a mid 4’s xFIP, lower K rate and he walks a bunch of dudes per nine. Like I said, Beltre is much better against lefties, but is no slouch against righties with close to a .900 OPS in that side of the split this season.

Consider Lonnie Chisenhall against Gausman. Chisenhall's coming on the super cheap and has raked righties this season.

 

Outfielders

Bryce Harper - FD 3000 DK 4300 DD 8450 SS 6800
Has struggled this season, but that has helped in bringing his prices down across the board. The nagging injuries and lack of production this year do have me a little concerned. That combined with his drop in the batting order have him off radars almost completely. Our system still believes though, to be honest, from an anecdotal perspective, making the case is tough. He squares off against Gausman and at Harper’s prices I think I’m willing to roll the dice. Especially if I am stacking some lefty Nats.

Alejandro De Aza - FD 2600 DK 3600 DD 7050 SS 5200
Adam Eaton - FD 3600 DK 4800 DD 9600 SS 8500
You already know the drill here. We are stacking Chi-Sox at almost every possible opportunity. It will be a popular play and I suppose on a short slate you can make the case to go contrarian with another team. But using the raw data and historical returns, this is the way to go. Both of these guys are kind of just, well…guys. Neither have any real power to speak of. They each have some speed to fall back on. What really needs to happen for them to reach value is they have to get on base and score runs. No team is in a better situation to do that today than the White Sox. Consider Dayan Viciedo along with them.

Shin-Soo Choo - FD 2700 DK 4200 DD 8400 SS 6000
I know, I know.

Also consider Michael Brantley if you are working with extra salary.

 

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