Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and StarStreet 8/3/14

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Pitchers

Stephen Strasburg - FD 9300 DK 9300 DD 18200 SS 27400
Strasburg is the best play according to our projection system by a country mile today. The good Phillies are old and K prone, and the bad Phillies are... bad. In spite of a great home park, the Phils have a wOBA below .300 and have struck out the 12th most in the majors. Hamels is a less than ideal match-up, but Strasburg is simply irresistable.

Yu Darvish - FD 11100 DK 11200 DD 21100 SS 30200
Darvish has been human recently, but the upside is still just tremendous. The Indians are tougher to strike out than the Phils, but Bauer is a much more favorable guy to face than Hamels. If you want to go safer today, Darvish is worth a look to be sure.

Madison Bumgarner - FD 8800 DK 9200 DD 18000 SS 26300
The Mets are basically the Phillies, but worse. Their team wOBA is a whopping 3 points higher, but their the 8th easiest team in the league to strike out. Colon has been pretty sharp this year, but the Giants will still be considerable favorites, and Bumgarner should have a nice start.

Also considered: Josh Beckett, Tyson Ross
Value Plays: Marcus Stroman, Francisco Liriano

 

Catchers

Brian McCann - FD 2800 DK 4100 DD 7200 SS 5300
I have to be real with you: today is a brutal day to pick a catcher. It's with some regret that I present Brian McCann as the best catcher play of the day. Basically, Buchholz and his 70 Ks against 33 BB in 96 innings this year has been a mess, and while McCann has been pretty bad himself - it's still a great platoon spot in a good hitters' park.

Salvador Perez - FD 2800 DK 3800 DD 6950 SS 5400
Perez makes a pretty solid play against Scott Kazmir today, in spite of Kazmir being a good pitcher. He's a .372 career wOBA guy against left handed pitching, and while he's run pretty bad against southpaws this year, he should definitely get that back on track by the end of the season.

Can't get either of these guys in, or they are sitting? Pick from whomever of the following plays: AJ Ellis, Yasmani Grandal, Jason Castro

 

First Basemen

You may be tempted to roll with Miggy today against the horrid De La Rosa. Be warned: Our system projects him to not deliver on his high FanDuel salary in spite of being one of the top points guys for the day.

Adam Dunn - FD 3200 DK 4100 DD 9200 SS 6900
With a lot of pretty good pitchers today, I'm likely to go with Dunn against the pitch-to-contact Gibson. Gibson's peripherals are downright lousy this year - just 61 Ks and 32 BBs in 114 innings. If he stays around the zone, it could be a huge upside day for Dunn.

Adrian Gonzalez - FD 3700 DK 4300 DD 11250 SS 7700
While Gonzo's overall line leaves something to be desired, he's still having a pretty good year against right handed pitching, and he's actually averaged more than 4 fantasy points per game in his last 10 games on FanDuel. Sweetening the deal? Edwin Jackson. The guy can't get an out, and has been incredibly wild this year. Great upside play here, if expensive.

Mark Teixeira - FD 3300 DK 4400 DD 9400 SS 7500
Continuing to cash in on Buchholz's declined skills - Tex makes a great boom or bust play. He's got a couple of homers recently, but also some O-fers. Makes a great part of any Yankees stack.

Also considered: Chris Davis, Mike Napoli, Miguel Cabrera

 

Second Basemen

Ian Kinsler - FD 3500 DK 4400 DD 8950 SS 7300
While Cabrera is priced out of the De La Rosa sweepstakes, Kinsler's price remains depressed due to what is looking like an off year. This is one where you sort of have to bite your cheek and trust the projection system, even if it's a bit uncomfortable. He's got a .384 wOBA against left handed pitching for his career - and he doesn't need to be that good to have a solid outing against the Rockies.

Dustin Pedroia - FD 2900 DK 4400 DD 8700 SS 7000
This is basically a case of our projection system not believing in David Phelps. The depressed price on Pedroia means he doesn't need to do a ton to to cash in against a league average pitcher in a good park.

Robinson Cano - FD 3600 DK 4900 DD 10450 SS 8300
Cano has slotted into an interesting role for a $3600 player - solid, if unspectacular. For one reason or another, the power hasn't been there this year, but one has to think that's at least in part due to what Safeco can do to a man's psyche. Tillman is very mistake prone, and Cano can still get a hold of a mistake.

 

Shortstops

Elvis Andrus - FD 2600 DK 3800 DD 8450 SS 5800
Andrus makes for a solid play largely because of what the rest of his teammates should be able to do against Trevor Bauer. Bauer is prone to giving up big innings, and if Andrus can get on base he could have a very nice day.

Hanley Ramirez - FD 3800 DK 4500 DD 10050 SS 8000
Hanley certainly prefers left handed pitching, but after Andrus, Shortstops fall off considerably. I'm going with Hanley because of the upside potential. Jackson is wild, makes a ton of mistakes, and allows a lot of balls to get up in the air. It might be advisable to spend less at a weak position today, but if you go cheaper on pitching Hanley makes a nice option.

Also considered: It gets very rough from here - if you're going cheap, you can make a case for Segura or Everth Cabrera, or if you're in a desperate stacking spot, even Derek Jeter.

 

Third Basemen

Kyle Seager - FD 3200 DK 4200 DD 8650 SS 7200
Seager continues to chug along as one of the most underrated players in fantasy baseball - particularly against right handed pitching. His .386 wOBA against righties makes him one of the very best in the league, and he should be in line for a terrific day against the pedestrian Tillman.

Aramis Ramirez - FD 3000 DK 4100 DD 8250 SS 6700
John Lackey has settled in as a slightly better than league average pitcher, but Aramis has always been pretty good against right handed pitching, and might be a pretty solid separation play with the rest of the field looking elsewhere.

Pedro Alvarez - FD 3000 DK 3800 DD 7700 SS 5400
Cahill's xFIP is actually quite a bit better than his ERA, but his wildness still makes him a great guy to choose righty crushers against. Alvarez's .342 career wOBA against right handed pitching doesn't tell the story of Alvarez's upside on a day to day basis - he'll absolutely throw up some negative scores, but on the right day he's a part of winning lineups. Today could be such a day.

Also considered: It's a pretty decent day for 3B - you can do well with Todd Frazier, Nick Castellanos, Adrian Beltre, and even David Wright in a tough match-up.

 

Outfielders

Billy Hamilton - FD 3600 DK 4700 DD 8100 SS 7500
Jay Bruce - FD 2800 DK 4100 DD 7800 SS 6700
On a day that's very tough for outfielders, the Reds lefties present the best combination of safety and upside, for me. Jacob Turner is just another on the long list of once promising arms that hasn't delivered upon his prospect ranking, and it could be a nice day for Reds lefties.

Ryan Braun - FD 4300 DK 5000 DD 10850 SS 8900
If you decide to spend on outfield today, Braun could be a very interesting play. John Lackey is a bit better than league average, but our projection system thinks he's going to turn into a pumpkin soon. Even in a righty-righty match-up, Braun has big upside.

Mike Trout - FD 4500 DK 5600 DD 13100 SS 10500
To keep Trout off this list, you're going to need to do a lot better than Jake Odorizzi. The young Rays pitcher has promise, and the stuff looks electric this year - but it takes more than just great stuff to fool the world's best.

Josh Hamilton - FD 3100 DK 4300 DD 9300 SS 7800
Hamilton strikes out more than this guy Andrew who was in my fraternity, but all that being said, he's still put up an .800 OPS this year, and his price doesn't seem to account for the tremendous power upside.

Carl Crawford - FD 3100 DK 4100 DD 7450 SS 5200
Crawford's season line is utterly busted, but there's actually a little bit more upside here than you may realize. His BABIP is a shocking .60 points below his career levels, and while he might not reach his .326 career norms, he's due for some improvement there. The speed is still dynamic, and when the BABIP comes back - the counting stats that follow should make him a steal at these bargain prices.

Carlos Gonzalez - FD 3600 DK 4400 DD 9650 SS 7200
Kind of reaching here. Gonzalez is going through an off year, and Anibal Sanchez is a fine pitcher. You're basically banking on the lefty/righty thing here.
Also considered: Mark Trumbo, Shin-Soo Choo

 

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