Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and StarStreet 7/28/14

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Pitchers

Madison Bumgarner - FD 9300 DK 10100 DD 18650 SS 26000
I feel like I’ve written a ton about Bumgarner this season. But every five days he seems to come in as a value play. Today it’s against the Twins, a team that ranks 20th in the league in wOBA against lefties and strikes out more than 21% of the time. The ballpark helps Bumgarner’s case as well considering AT&T Park depresses power to all sides of the plate. Bumgarner is just so damn steady K-ing a batter per nine, keeping the walks relatively low and sporting an xFIP right around 3.00. I will have him in all formats today as he’s safe with some K upside. Correction: Bumgarner is against the Pirates, which only makes him a better play. 

Jesse Chavez - FD 7800 DK 8000 DD 15450 SS 22600
He’s been better than expected this season and the K’s have maintained after coming somewhat out of nowhere to start the season. His xFIP is in the mid 3’s with an 8.53 K/9. I like Chavez today as much for his arsenal as for the opponent in the Astros who rank close the bottom of the league in OPS against righties. They also strike out nearly a quarter of the time against righties. That’s good news in targeting strikeout upside today even in a tougher hitter’s park in Houston.

 

Catchers

Wilin Rosario - FD 3000 DK 4100 DD 7600 SS 6800
I think catcher is pretty easy today with three guys rising easily to the top of the crop at nice prices. Rosario heads the list as he faces the lefty Wada. Wrigley is no Coors, but it is above average in home runs for righties and Rosario’s been a lefty masher over his career. Much of this is in part due to Coors, but he still hits better in that platoon and our system has him adjusted so he’s not exactly running away from the field in terms of catcher value. But it’s there and the price is right.

Devin Mesoraco - FD 3100 DK 4000 DD 8250 SS 7500
Mesoraco’s crushed righty pitching this season. His .948 OPS on that side of the split is encouraging even with a Hr/FB% regression coming (happening). While his early returns have been nice, it is worth it to note that his K% is a little too high with the BB% a little too low. That leaves his margin for error a little more than I’d like in a safe play. But he’s playing in a hitter’s park against an average pitcher in Chase Anderson.

Strongly consider Miguel Montero

 

First Basemen

This position is a disaster zone today. I was sorely tempted to just write “skip” and hope that DFS sites allowed us to start like another outfielder or something.

David Ortiz - FD 4500 DK 5400 DD 10850 SS 9000
This is a complete overpay. No way around it. Want to make that very clear from the start. On a full slate I would never consider paying this much for Ortiz. But we are grasping at straws a bit. If you can save enough other places I think he makes a fine enough play independent of price against Dickey. Papi walks almost as much as he strikes out against righties which should serve him well against R.A. Again, this is expensive, but on a tough one go with one of the better hitters.

Adam LaRoche - FD 2900 DK 4500 DD 8900 SS 6800
The park sucks but so does Eovaldi. When in doubt I find it best to go cheap, limit the downside and move on with your life. Laroche has been a good hitter against righties in a limited run this season and favors this platoon split over the course of his career. You can do worse.

 

Second Basemen

Rougned Odor - FD 2300 DK 3000 DD 5000 SS 4600
Our system is consistently high on the guy and yet I so rarely even mention his name. Part of this is his spot in the batting order; typically he hits ninth which I hate even considering in the DFS format. But today he comes in at a total punt. Never takes a walk but the 103 wRC+ against righties this season is better than league average. And hitting ninth has a some advantage in that he can get on in front of the top of the order. Short slates are times to maximize value and this is not a bad play considering the player pool.

DJ LeMahieu - FD 2400 DK 3700 DD 7350 SS 4700
Kind of just a dude hitting against a lefty in Wrigley. Not much to say here except that today is super tough on the offensive side and he rates out higher against an average pitcher.

 

Shortstops

Only one guy really stands out to me today here.

Starlin Castro - FD 2700 DK 4500 DD 7750 SS 6100
Not going to hit you home runs, but then again few shortstops have any real power upside. What he is going to do for you is put the ball in play and hit in the middle of the order behind one of the OBP machines in the league Anthony Rizzo. Yohan Flande is one of the many garbage lefties the Rockies trot out there and dude never K’s anyone. That’s great news for Castro who won’t walk. This will be him swinging away.

Consider maybe overpaying for Jose Reyes

 

Third Basemen

Todd Frazier - FD 3300 DK 4400 DD 9100 SS 7600
Over more than 330 PA’s against righties this season, Frazier is showing he can hit both sides of the platoon split. His 134 wRC+ is solid and his OPS on that split is in the low .800’s. I don’t mind that at all considering Great American Ballpark favors hitters and Chase Anderson has been just about average this season.

Pablo Sandoval - FD 3300 DK 4500 DD 8400 SS 7300
Big Panda is having a comeback season and that’s thanks in large part to the success he’s had against righty pitching and a solid LD% pointing to a decent contact rate. Vance Worley isn’t the worst pitcher in the world, but he fits the Twins profile of no-K righties that other teams have little interest in employing.

Consider Mike Olt

 

Outfielders

Jay Bruce - FD 2900 DK 4200 DD 7700 SS 6500
He’s had a rough go of it this season as the K rate jumped considerably. This is part of the issue but he’s also been a victim of the Hr/FB% sitting below his career averages. The latter doesn’t make up completely for the OPS concerns, but it explains some. I’m willing to take a shot on his today against Anderson in the hitter’s park. Sniffing out homeruns is tougher today but I like Bruce for the upside.

Shin-Soo Choo - FD 2600 DK 4300 DD 8500 SS 6400
Tried to promise myself to take the wait-and-see approach with Choo as his ankle is clearly effecting his hitting. The power is significantly diminished and with it the OBP. But the prices he’s slated for today are tough to ignore considering the lessened player pool. I don’t feel great about it.

Jose Bautista - FD 4800 DK 5500 DD 12400 SS 8900
On a small slate you will have to overpay in some spots simply because the value options aren’t going to totally be there. This is a good case. Bautista is expensive, but he’s also probably the best hitter going today (Goldschmidt right there) and faces Clay Buchholz who, while not as bad as his mid 5’s ERA would suggest, is still a below average pitcher letting up too many flyballs. Again, this is expensive but so few big bats are rolling today.

Consider Bryce Harper

 

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