Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and StarStreet 7/26/14

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Pitchers

Julio Teheran - FD 9100 DK 9800 DD 19800 SS 28600
The Padres are beginning to come out of the pits of the Babip hell that has plagued them much of the season. Everyone who started Alex Wood yesterday (us included) knows about this. That being said, even with a huge regression in that area, the Padres still stink. It would just bring them closer to the pack rather than historically bad. The peripherals on Teheran are excellent this season and his control allows him to go late in games. This is a price thing too. Kershaw and Sale are bank busters. Teheran falls in the next level and the matchup dictates a play here.

Chris Sale - FD 10500 DK 12300 DD 21950 SS 32400
If I had to pick between the big boys of Sale and Kershaw, I think today I’d go Sale. I know Kershaw is from some other planet where they genetically engineer pitchers. But the price is simply too high. Sale on the other hand, while expensive, faces a Twins team that strike out 21% of the time and ranks in the middle of the pack against lefties. Sale is striking out almost 10 batters per nine and walking next to no one. The xFIP is in the high 2’s and he’s a solid play today in all formats.

Jake Arrieta - FD 7700 DK 9600 DD 17200 SS 27400
He doesn’t have the strikeout upside of the guys mentioned above because his matchup with the Cardinals sets a slightly lower expectation on that front. But the Cards aren’t a good hitting team in general. The rank in the lower third of the league in team wOBA against righties. Arrieta has been nails this season with a 9.85 K/9 and 2.79 xFIP (2.12 ERA).

Tom Koehler - FD 6300 DK 6800 DD 13450 SS 18400
This one is all about price and matchup. Koehler is by no means a good pitcher. He’s simply average with an xFIP in the mid 4’s. His strikeout rate is in the mid 7’s and his peripherals are just *meh. But the Astros are bad against righties. They come in near the bottom of the league and strikeout a league-high 24% of the time. Buying here on price, mostly on multi-SP sites looking for salary relief on the big boys.

Consider Johnny Cueto in the early slate

 

Catchers

Wilin Rosario - FD 2700 DK 4100 DD 7350 SS 6600
Jeff Locke isn’t a complete pushover and has a fighting chance in Coors because of his groundball rate. That being said, he’s simply an average lefty (with some reverse splits fwiw) and Rosario has been one of the best hitters in the league this season on that side of the platoon. He has an OPS in the mid .900’s with a 151 wRC+. The game is going off in Coors and there could be a lot of runs in this one.

Devin Mesoraco - FD 3100 DK 4000 DD 8050 SS 7400
For the early slate of games, Mesoraco makes an interesting play even with a tough matchup against Gio Gonzalez. Mesoraco strikes out a fair amount, but he negates that a bit with a 15% walk rate against lefties. This sort of patience should serve him well against Gio who is prone to extend at bats and innings with walks and lack of control. Mesoraco’s price has dipped and this is a nice spot to buy.

Consider Russell Martin and Brian McCann

 

First Basemen

Chris Davis - FD 2900 DK 5000 DD 9350 SS 7100
Davis’s biggest issue, as we all know, is the strikeout. He K’s at a rate that suggests it’s an incentive in his contract. But today that expectation decreases against Chris Young, a dud who strikes out less than six batters per nine. Young, by many accounts, has been incredibly lucky this season with an xFIP two whole runs higher than his ERA. The ballpark does Crush no favors but if we can decrease the K rate for a game then he still offers some upside at his prices.

Gaby Sanchez - FD 2200 DK 3600 DD 5500 SS 3200
The Pirates have had a not so great run of it in Coors. But today’s another day and Sanchez makes a punt price dude on the late slate. He’s been significantly better against lefties this season with a 138 wRC+ and .840 OPS. These numbers are super solid consider he’s a near minimum guy rocking in Coors against Matzek.

Strongly consider Jose Abreu but you’ll be paying up.
Consider Justin Smoak on the early slate.

 

Second Basemen

Jason Kipnis - FD 3800 DK 4900 DD 9300 SS 7700
A guy we target a great deal as I (and our projections) tend to consider him continuously underpriced. Jeremy Guthrie pretty much stinks, strikes out less than six batters per nine and has an xFIP in the mid 4’s. Kipnis walks around 13% of the time and will have his strikeout expectation negated today with Guthrie on the mound. Kipnis’s wRC+ against this season is 115 and he offers a speed/ (some) power combo that keeps the floor low on any given day.

Chase Utley - FD 3200 DK 4500 DD 8550 SS 7100
Josh Collmenter is a flyball pitcher, chucking in one of the better parks in baseball for elevating lefty power. We’ll take it with Utley today. Chase’s power hasn’t been there all season but he’s been solid nonetheless with an OPS in the .800’s and a .352 wOBA against righties. I love is prices against a mediocre pitcher with FB tendencies.

Daniel Murphy - FD 2900 DK 3900 DD 7500 SS 6400
If you’ve been reading us consistently you know Murphy shows up here when a lower K pitcher is on the mound. That’s because Murph, who already is a tough K, is a virtual lock to have his bat on the ball. I feel like I type that phrase out a lot for Murphy, but there aren’t many other ways to describe it. He’s a contact hitter and we want him in as a safer play when his chances of making solid contact increase.

Strongly consider Robinson Cano

 

Shortstops

Jordy Mercer - FD 3000 DK 3700 DD 5900 SS 5400
I doubt Mercer’s ever been talked about more in his whole life combined than he’s been mentioned in DFS circles this season as a sneaky play against lefties. It’s a bit overblown and his prices have climbed out of the punt range which has me a little cooler on the guy, but still, it’s Coors against Tyler Matzek. Mercer’s OPS is in the mid .700’s against lefties which is about as good as one can expect from this terrible position.

Alexei Ramirez - FD 2800 DK 4000 DD 7950 SS 6000
Haven’t mentioned the Cuban Missile in awhile, but I like the matchup today against Logan Darnell, a recent call up for the Twins. Alexei is serviceable against lefties. A good, not great play who needs to dial up the speed to really have a big night. If he can continue hitting at the top of the order, in front of Abreu I like him even more. I like the price on the guy with a quasi-platoon advantage going for him.

Consider Jed Lowrie

The early slate is hot garbage at SS and it’s tough to pick anyone from the group of losers/ bad matchups that are going. I suppose Jose Reyes is interesting against Capuano but Jose is worse against lefties. Maybe Starlin Castro against Shelby Miller. What I’m saying is it’s a dire situation.

 

Third Basemen

Aramis Ramirez - FD 2800 DK 4400 DD 8350 SS 6600
No we’re talking. Love when prices artificially drop on a guy and we can catch him nearing his basement on the better side of his split. That’s just what we have going here today. Aramis has crushed lefties this season with an OPS over 1.000 and today he faces Jon Niese in Miller Park. The stars are aligning for him to go off. He’s super affordable especially on FanDuel.

Lonnie Chisenhall - FD 2800 DK 3900 DD 7100 SS 6500
Another solid play in the late slate. Chisenhall’s been terrific against righties this season (with a little push from his Babip) and faces a pitcher in Jeremy Guthrie who’s on the wrong side of mediocre. Lonnie’s 150 wRC+ is right up there at the top end of the league and his price is very low.

Kyle Seager - FD 3400 DK 4300 DD 9350 SS 7400
In the early slate of games Seager is a guy I’ll be targeting even with the bad ballpark. Bud Norris’s strikeout days are long over and he struggles to put down more than seven batters per nine. Seager on the other hand has crushed righty pitching this season with an OPS close to .900 and a .386 wOBA. His price has dropped on recent performance. Makes a great buy now.

 

Outfielders

Jose Bautista - FD 4300 DK 5100 DD 11100 SS 8600His price hasn’t climbed completely back to where it should be and he’s been starting to catch a little bit of fire. Our system doesn’t account at all for streaks, but it always warms my heart a little to know we could be catching a guy on the way up. Today is one of those days. He faces Chris Capuano in Yankee Stadium. Need to know anything else? Bautista is one of the true lefty murderers in the league and the stadium in the Bronx is unforgiving for pitchers.

Andrew McCutchen - FD 5000 DK 5900 DD 12700 SS 10900
Lefty. Coors. McCutch. Kills. Lefties. McCutch. Kills. Lefties. Coors. Lefty. Kills. McCutch. I think you get the point.

Khris Davis - FD 3300 DK 3800 DD 8750 SS 7200
I don’t think Niese is particularly bad, it’s just that Davis is among the best hitters in the league this season against lefties. His .982 OPS and .422 wOBA on that side of the platoon split are about as good as you’ll see. And his prices are so low that you can easily get him in lineups without breaking the bank.

Consider Ryan Braun and Carlos Gomez with him

Dayan Viciedo - FD 2600 DK 3700 DD 7250 SS 5800
I like him as a cheap option against the lefty Darnell. Target Field doesn’t do righties any favors in the power department, but I Viciedo’s pricing is so solid, especially on DraftKings with the platoon splits in his favor and Darnell being a new, untested, meh in the minors type arm.

Carlos Beltran - FD 2700 DK 4300 DD 8200 SS 6200
The early slate is a bereft of good hitting options, but Beltran is coming on the cheap against Hutchinson and I think you can target him in Yankee Stadium.

Consider Melky Cabrera
Give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr and @dougnorrie.

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