Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and StarStreet 7/25/14

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Pitchers

Alex Wood - FD 7700 DK 7700 DD 14650 SS 23000
Congratulations to Alex Wood, the winner of the daily "Who gets to pitch against the Padres?" sweepstakes. The Dads are the very worst team in the league in wOBA, are one of the top 5 in the league in terms of most strike outs, and just traded away their best hitter. Wood has been very solid this season in his own right - featuring around a K per inning and showing pretty good control as well. All in all, he seems like the clear start of the day.

Note - you could also make a case for Jesse Hahn strictly in terms of upside. The price is right, and the Braves are pretty K happy.

Zack Greinke - FD 9400 DK 9800 DD 18250 SS 27900
I'm going to go against the grain today and not recommend either Felix or David Price. Neither has a dynamite match-up, and while they are both capable of a great night, I'd prefer to spend more on hitting and go for Greinke. It's another time where you could make a case for Greinke or Lincecum, but I'm going with the Zack attack on the basis that he simply has a lower floor on any given day. The Giants' best hitters all hit from the right side of the plate, and the park is right tonight for Greinke to put up a big night.

Zack Wheeler - FD 7300 DK 7800 DD 13500 SS 23200
I'm sticking with Zacks who spell their names with a K for my 2nd and 3rd slots tonight. The Brewers have a fairly solid offense, but like the Giants, their best hitters are righties. Gallardo isn't the pitcher he once was, with reduced Ks and a similar amount of walks, and Wheeler should be in a nice position for a win as well.

Also considered: Jesse Hahn, Wade Miley

 

Catchers

Miguel Montero - FD 2800 DK 3900 DD 8300 SS 6400
It's a less than ideal day in the catcher department, with a lot of big names facing either tough pitchers or pitchers of a similar handedness. That said, I love Montero tonight. He has a strong preference for right handed pitching, and Kendrick happens to be a pretty lousy right handed pitcher. The park is a great spot for left handed hitters as well. All systems go for Miguel.

Carlos Ruiz - FD 2400 DK 3300 DD 7600 SS 4700
Ruiz is the other side of the coin in this contest. Wade Miley has flexed some decent peripherals this year, but Ruiz isn't really a strike out threat, and the price is terrific on him. The lefty righty thing helps as well. I don't like him as much as Montero, but he's tolerable here.

Russell Martin - FD 3400 DK 4200 DD 8450 SS 5800
Brett Anderson solved the Pirates last time around, but I don't think he'll be so lucky this time. Our projection system thinks his goose is cooked, and I tend to agree. Martin is pretty expensive, but he has been making hard contact also system long and brings his favorable righty/lefty split to the greatest hitters' park in the history of mankind.

Also considered: Salvador Perez, Evan Gattis, Brian McCann

 

First Basemen

Adam LaRoche - FD 2900 DK 4500 DD 8800 SS 6700
LaRoche is pretty cheap, and all things considered, he's put together a fine fantasy season so far. Alfredo Simon has a nice ERA this season, but his peripherals don't hold up to much scrutiny, and it could be a nice ady for Nats lefties.

Adam Dunn - FD 3100 DK 3900 DD 8700 SS 6300
Speaking of peripheral messes, holy moses Kevin Correia. I believe it's the lowest K/9 of any starter in the league, which is bad news when facing a guy whose major weakness is striking out. I'm prepared to see balls fly a long way in this game.

Brandon Moss - FD 3700 DK 5000 DD 10300 SS 8100
We had him as the top play at first base yesterday and all he did was hit a grand slam. I'm new to this, is that good? Moss is in a similarly advantageous spot today against Jerome Williams, a dude who isn't as bad as his ERA would suggest but still isn't good. Tough position to fill today with some of the prices, but Moss fits the bill on the right side of his split against a mediocre arm.

Also considered: Mark Reynolds, Albert Pujols, Billy Butler

 

Second Basemen

If it's a bad day for catchers, it's a worse day for 2nd basemen. Holding my nose before offering these picks.

Brian Dozier - FD 3900 DK 4600 DD 10600 SS 8300
A pure upside play. Dozier has put together a great line of homers and steals this year, and has been even worse than our projection system thinks he is. He walks a ton of guys, gives up the long ball, and doesn't strike anyone out. So, yeah. Not the greatest. Dozier is a full fledged lefty killer as well. All signs point to "yes."

Daniel Murphy - FD 3000 DK 3900 DD 7700 SS 6500
Not your biggest upside play, but when Murphy faces righties he's capable of a very solid performance. I like him plenty for double ups, and you can make a case in GPPs if you just want to get away from 2B safe and cheap.

Howie Kendrick - FD 3400 DK 4200 DD 8050 SS 6500
Kendrick has murdered left handed pitching this year to the tune of a .370 wOBA, and Smyly is another guy who has shown significant peripheral regression. Batting among the rest of those big bats in the Angels lineup could lead to a very nice counting stat day for Kendrick.

Also considered: Ian Kinsler

 

Shortstops

Jed Lowrie - FD 2600 DK 4000 DD 7900 SS 5300
Before you do a double take, the projection system acknowledges that Lowrie would far prefer facing a lefty. But there's just one thing: Jerome Williams is horrible. The converted reliever is having trouble allowing fewer than 6 runs per 9 innings, which is a pretty sweet ERA if you are 9 years old, but not so much when you're in the majors.

Elvis Andrus - FD 2300 DK 3800 DD 7150 SS 5200
Guys who don't hit home runs are going to have decent fantasy droughts, there's no doubt about it. Andrus is in one such drought now. But the $2,300 price on FanDuel? Joke. Andrus can still put together a huge game with his legs and scoring runs, and there's actually quite a bit of safety built in to this bargain price. With a 1:1 K/BB in his last two starts, Hammel has been struggling, and facing this Texas lineup could be pretty difficult.

Jordy Mercer - FD 3000 DK 3500 DD 5900 SS 5200
Are you enjoying the Jordy Mercer experience as much as I am? The guy has posted a herculean .398 wOBA against left handed pitching, and he's taking on what's left of Brett Anderson's left arm in Colorado. BUYBUYBUY.

 

Third Basemen

Trevor Plouffe - FD 2600 DK 4100 DD 8250 SS 5100
Plouffe has been pretty good against left handers this year, but this is mostly a condemnation of Danks' deteriorated skills. Lots of power upside here even if Plouffe hasn't quite killed lefties this year the way he has in the past.

David Wright - FD 3300 DK 4400 DD 9500 SS 7700
This is one of those picks that you kind of have to hold your nose and click. Wright has been horrendous against right handed pitching this year, but he's actually been pretty decent against them over the course of his career, and there's some indication that his struggles won't last. Gallardo's reduced stuff leaves me mildly optimistic that Wright could tap into his monstrous upside.

The Poo-Poo Platter of the rest
After the top two guys, there are a ton of guys who are pretty similar today. If it's me? I'd go cheap with Juan Francisco against a righty, Castellanos against Skaggs, or Freese against Smyly. Want to shoot for the stars? Seager could have a nice game against Kevin Gausman, but I'm less than optimistic.

 

Outfielders

Andrew McCutchen - FD 5000 DK 5800 DD 12700 SS 10600
McCutchen's career 1.000 OPS against left handed pitching is headed to Coors Field. To face a left handed pitcher. Who sucks. Here's a teaser: Our projection system thinks you can get $5,000 worth of salary in on FanDuel at one of the very highest projected points per dollar values at any position. He'll be a near universal start.

Carlos Gonzalez - FD 3600 DK 4900 DD 10150 SS 7900
DFSR shuts down when Colorado is playing in Colorado with 2 average or worse pitchers. Gonzalez has been touch and go this year without a doubt. I don't think Morton's knuckler is going to dance in that nasty Colorado air, and think that the Rockies (with Gonzalez at the helm) could chase him quickly.

Coco Crisp - FD 3500 DK 4700 DD 9150 SS 7700
I have to say, I kind of love Crisp's game at this stage in his career. More walks than strike outs, adequate power, and good speed. What I really love here? Jerome Williams! I have nothing personal against the man, but when it comes to throwing baseballs in a major league setting, he is ill equipped. Was that diplomatic enough? Hope so.

Mark Trumbo - FD 3000 DK 4200 DD 7550 SS 6400
I get it - the season line is terrible. And Trumbo is better against lefties. But! Here's the thing. He's facing a bad pitcher in a great pitcher's park, and the price is just ridiculous for a guy with his upside. Not a safe play by any stretch, but the upside is amazing.

Bryce Harper - FD 3300 DK 4700 DD 9100 SS 7500
Harper has bounced back nicely over the last couple of weeks, doing a little bit of everything to amass pretty solid fantasy totals. As with all young hitters, I just love him against raw pitchers with favorable platoon splits. Alfredo Simon's artificially inflated ERA shouldn't be able to do a whole lot to fool the Nat's phenom.

Mike Trout - FD 5300 DK 6000 DD 14450 SS 11600
Can you see why I wanted to save a little bit on pitching today? Trout doesn't have quite the juice that McCutchen does today, but I really think the Angels are going to trounce Smyly's reduced stuff, and if that happens, there's no way Trout doesn't post a monster.

Also considered: Shin-Soo Choo, Carlos Beltran, Desmond Jennings, Giancarlo Stanton, Josh Reddick, Marlon Byrd

 

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