Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and StarStreet 7/24/14

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Pitchers

Jeff Samardzija - FD 7900 DK 8600 DD 16800 SS 24200
Must be nice getting traded to a team with a top record in the league. Samardzija is ours system’s top pitching play for the early slate for both raw points and points per dollar. There is so much to like here. He’s priced in the tier below Hamels (see below) in that slate and will be a high percentage play. But for good reason. His peripherals have been solid this season striking out more than eight batters per nine while keeping the walks low. His xFIP is in the low 3’s and Oakland is a pitcher’s park limiting power to lefties. And finally, the Astros rank near the bottom of the league against righties and strike out more than 24% of the time. I’ll have him all over the early slate of games.

Edwin Jackson - FD 5900 DK 5800 DD 11050 SS 14200
He’s a risk wrapped up in an enigma that frustrates the hell out of everyone he comes near. But he’s facing the Padres. So what’s guy to do? As we all know, the Dads are about as bad as it gets on offense. Some of it is bad luck, but even a moderate regression would still have them in the basement. EJax meanwhile isn’t as bad as his plus 5 ERA would indicate. The xFIP is almost a run and a half lower. Still not great, but he isn’t this bad. The Padres are a team to bounce back against and get the numbers looking right again. The walks are a concern but if you want to save money on pitching, this is the place to start.

Tyson Ross - FD 7900 DK 9300 DD 17150 SS 27000
I don’t like picking pitchers that face each other mostly because it cancels out the opportunity at two wins (on multi-SP sites) but Ross is interesting here today mostly because his numbers this season are pretty damned good. The xFIP is just a hair over three, he’s striking out nearly a batter per nine and faces a Cub team coming in near the bottom of the league in team wOBA against righties.

Cole Hamels - FD 9100 DK 10400 DD 18100 SS 28200
He’s the only guy making the pitching decision on the early slate close for me. And it really isn’t even that close as I like Samardzija much more. But on two pitcher sites Hamels makes a good, not great play against an average Giants team.

 

Catchers

Brian McCann - FD 2900 DK 3700 DD 7000 SS 5200
Colby Lewis is having a year to forget. For a number of different reasons including his performance and his interpretations of the “unwritten rules” of baseball. And now he’s pitching in Yankee Stadium, a park not exactly conducive to his tendency to serve up the long ball. Our system still loves McCann and he is the top catcher for the early slate of games.

Mike Zunino - FD 2600 DK 3200 DD 6500 SS 4500
Last time we picked him against a lefty he obliged by going yard. The park does him no favors today, and Wei-Yin Chen is actually kind of decent this season keeping the walks low. But Zunino’s biggest issue is the strikeout and Chen isn’t a power pitcher. I like him for the late slate of games for the splits and the price.

 

First Basemen

Hate this position today for sure, especially for the early slate.

Brandon Moss - FD 3800 DK 4700 DD 10350 SS 7700
This is a complete overpay here, but this position is so weak that I am kind of at a loss on what to do. Every option seems either overpriced, in a bad matchup or both. Moss is working on a nice year and even with his Hr/FB% coming back down to Earth is still a .900 OPS guy against righty pitching. Scott Feldman is one of the weaker pitchers going on the day allowing close to an .800 OPS against lefty hitting this season. Again, I think this is an overpay but you kind of have to considering the circumstances.

Mark Reynolds - FD 2200 DK 3600 DD 6700 SS 5000
Let’s just go cheap, punty, power upside in the late slate. Reynolds is about average against righty pitching this season with a wRC+ coming in right around 100. Dillon Gee trends toward allowing more flyballs and is pitching in a hitter’s park. Again, this position is tough so I’m willing to go cheap in order to spend elsewere.

 

Second Basemen

Tommy La Stella - FD 2700 DK 3400 DD 6500 SS 5800
He’ll have his bat on the ball today almost assuredly which is about as much as you can ask for on a day when offense is difficult to come by. La Stella makes his bones on being a tough out. His walk and strike out rates are excellent and Henderson Alvarez is a guy who pitches to contact. La Stella needs to get on base to provide value because he has almost no power. But getting on and scoring runs is a path to profit on a day in which power could be real scarce.

Brian Roberts - FD 2400 DK 3500 DD 6100 SS 4500
Stinks but I’m on every other Yankee so why the hell not? He picks up hits in dribs and drabs and chucks in a stolen base every once in a while. So, good enough.

Consider Dustin Pedroia

 

Shortstops

Jed Lowrie - FD 2500 DK 3700 DD 7700 SS 4900
I’m saving money at shortstop for sure today. Everyone looks pretty bad. I’m actually surprised our system doesn’t like more Athletics against Scott Feldman. But they just aren’t showing up on the radar. Lowrie though rates out near the top for shortstops with a low K% against righties and a Babip that’s holding his salary down some.

Danny Santana - FD 3100 DK 3400 DD 7100 SS 6600
Doesn’t enjoy taking walks and the Babip has his overall production boosted just a little beyond his real skill set. But Santana has some speed, a little power and faces Hector Noesi who strikes out less than seven batters per nine. I’m on the Twins in the late slate of games and he makes a cheap option at a shallow position.

 

Third Basemen

Chase Headley - FD 2900 DK 4100 DD 8000 SS 4500
Welcome to Yankee Stadium. If there is any player in the league ever more psyched about a change in scenery (except for the weather maybe) I’d be shocked. And he gets to face Colby Lewis, an extreme flyball pitcher in a stadium that is unforgiving for that skillset. Headley’s price, new lineup, ballpark and matchup all make him the top third base option for the dollars today. I’m wiping the slate clean on his time in a Padre uniform.

Aramis Ramirez - FD 3000 DK 4400 DD 8700 SS 6700
Again, like Reynolds, I'm sacrificing a little platoon advantage here on the power upside with the pitching matchup and the park. Aramis is much better against lefties, but Gee is a contact pitcher prone to flyballs going in Miller Park where power is elevated to left field.

 

Outfielders

Carlos Beltran - FD 2800 DK 4300 DD 8550 SS 6200
Jacoby Ellsbury - FD 4400 DK 4900 DD 10550 SS 8800
Brett Gardner - FD 3800 DK 4600 DD 8550 SS 7600
I recommended all three of these guys the other day against Nick Martinez and it didn’t work out so great. Thankfully I have a short memory and if you are playing DFS then you should as well. Living in the past is a great way to make suboptimal decisions going forward. These guys are all excellent prices today considering the opposition in their home ballpark. Like I’ve said, Colby Lewis could be in real trouble if the ball is elevated at all to right field. Each of these guys has power to some degree and the Yankees could put up runs. They’ll be a popular early slate stack.

Jose Bautista - FD 3700 DK 5000 DD 10500 SS 8600
Still underpriced considering he’s one of the best hitters in baseball is playing in a great park for righty power. Rubby de la Rosa is no pushover by any means, but I’m more buying Joey Bats on his own virtue and price rather than the matchup.

The late slate of outfields is a graveyard of broken dreams and sub .800 OPS’s. Tread carefully here.

Christian Yelich - FD 3700 DK 4100 DD 9050 SS 7400
Doesn’t stink as bad as some of the other guys you can choose from. How’s that for a sales pitch? He’s been solid against righty pitching this season with a 121 wRC+ and OPS close to .800. The speed helps a bit and Aaron Harang isn’t good.

Twins OF
Take a look at whoever the Twins throw in the outfield and target a couple of their guys on the cheap. Hector Noesi is one of the poorer arms going in the late slate and I think the Twins could put up some runs. A lot of the options for them rate out high in our system. Lineup hunt going into game time.

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