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Anthony Rendon
Ryan Zimmerman
Jayson Werth
I typically don’t put three guys into these picks in any one category because I don’t want to give the farm away completely. But there’s no sense in screwing around here or dancing around the obvious. Theses are the dudes to target. They all hit considerably better against lefty pitching, are all stepping into the batter’s box in Coors and get to face Jorge de la Rosa’s low-K profile. It’s a match made in total bases heaven. Why fade the chalk line when there’s no salary to contend with? Don’t be a hero.
Michael Brantley
Here’s a guy who just wants to put the ball in play over and over again. I have a feeling Kyle Gibson will oblige. Brantley has a K% and BB% both around 8.00 which is as low as you’ll see from a middle of the order hitter. His contact rate is outstanding. Anthony Swarzak on the other hand strikes out less than five batters per nine and walks around four. I’ll have him all over him top hits category today without hesitation.
Victor Martinez
Doesn’t love to walk and likes to strikeout even less. V-Mart makes such a solid play today for the overall hits category on those considerations alone before you even factor in that Trevor Cahill is pretty garbage. The only thing tempering me a little on Martinez today is Cahill’s K% and BB% are both pretty high which will bring down the contact expectation some. Otherwise, the ballpark is perfect for hitters and Martinez has been raking this season.
Madison Bumgarner
I wish they weren’t playing in Philly, but Darvish in the Bronx and Strasburg in Denver just seem way too risky for the top spot here. The Phillies are bad against lefty pitching and go down on strikes more than 22% of the time against lefties. Bumgarner’s profile and peripherals allow him to pitch later in games when he’s keeping the walks in check and he should be good for at least the seven K mark today. Tough to ever bet on anyone (except Price and Kershaw) to hit nines consistently, but Bums has a chance at that today as well.
Ervin Santana
He’s not a big K guy, but the Marlins have a way of bringing that out in pitchers. They have the highest strikeout rate in the league against righties at 24% and Santana striking out almost eight batters per nine while keeping the walks low seems like a guy who should hit six on the day. Like I said before, the other big names have trouble written all over them so I am looking for safety on the bottom end of the strikeout picks.
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