Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and StarStreet 7/23/14

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Pitchers

Madison Bumgarner - FD 9000 DK 9500 DD 17450 SS 27500
I think I recommend him almost every single time he pitches. And why not? He’s been super solid with an xFIP right around 3.00 and striking out more than a batter an inning. He’s a model of consistency and I like that in a pitcher. It helps that the Phillies are below average against lefties while striking out 22% of the time. If you are spending up for an arm (though you don’t necessarily need to today) Bumgarner is a great place to start.

Ian Kennedy - FD 7500 DK 8300 DD 15650 SS 24300
The big problem with Kennedy really has nothing to do with him. It’s that his team is completely terribly and his chances for a win on a given day are so marginal that it kills his high-end upside. Because otherwise he’s been pretty awesome this season. The xFIP sits in the very low threes and his peripherals, especially the K’s, look solid. I’ve written a lot about him this year as an underrated commodity and it’s true again today against the Cubs who rank 28th in the league against righty pitching. Wrigley is league average for power (a downgrade from Kennedy’s home park) but overall this is still a great place to play him.

Ervin Santana - FD 8100 DK 8300 DD 14750 SS 21600
He’s coming at a little discount mostly because the ERA is running off from the xFIP. That’s a great spot for when we are buying on pitchers because we can grab them a dollar or two less than fair market. Perfect. He won’t rack up a ton of K’s for you on a typical night, but that’s why we want to target the Marlins in the right spot. They strike out, as a team, more than 24% of the time against right handed pitching. As a whole they rate out about average meaning they aren’t necessarily a favorite to light a pitcher up. Santana feels safe today.

Jesse Chavez - FD 7600 DK 7600 DD 13700 SS 21700
Good god do the ‘Stros love to strike out. Against righties this season they go down 24% of the time and really are a weak hitting bunch on that side of the split. Chavez is fine but I’m mostly looking at matchup here. His prices are low for a dude who K’s just shy of a batter an inning and has a choice matchup. Buying low here.

Francisco Liriano - FD 6700 DK 8200 DD 12600 SS 21100
Here’s your high risk/ high reward guy. Liriano has big time strikeout stuff paired with big time free pass stuff. Not for the weak of heart as he could be out of there prior to the fifth inning. But the Dodgers are sneaky bad against lefty pitching and this could be a place to grab a ton of points on the cheap. Again, not for any cash games, but GPP could really pay dividends.

Catchers

Wilson Ramos - FD 2900 DK 4200 DD 8950 SS 5600
Another day, another bunch of righties facing a lefty in Coors. The prices have corrected on a bunch of the Nats making them a bit away from the dream plays they were at the beginning of this series. That being said, I’m still all over them especially considering the discounts I’m getting on some pitching today. Ramos is solid against lefties and I’m not seeing a ton of reasons to fade Coors today.

Russell Martin - FD 2700 DK 3800 DD 7600 SS 5800
Haren, over his career, has actually struggled more with right handed hitters. The old reverse-splits nature of his skillset has me on Martin on a tough day to find catching value. Russell, with a little help from his Babip has an OPS over .850 against righty pitching this season and makes for a very cheap option on a day when saving at catcher seems like the way to go.

Consider just playing the cheapest option you can find on a day like today. It’s dire and completely punting isn’t the worst way to go. Or pay all the way up for Victor Martinez though I don't think I'd go that route.

First Basemen

David Ortiz - FD 3500 DK 5200 DD 11050 SS 8500
Haven’t talked about him in a while but the price is reaching a nadir. He’s been not great over the last month or so until the last two games, some of which is Babip related. The Babip drop could also be shift related and might not be completely about “luck”. But I like him today against Dickey considering the latter is a control mess and Ortiz can draw walks with the best of them. Papi is a little expensive in spots but is a great deal on FanDuel.

Freddie Freeman - FD 3600 DK 4900 DD 9900 SS 8200
Great place to buy on the guy. Eovaldi, after a strong early season run is showing his inevitable warts in that he struggles to generate K’s. Freeman on the other hand has more than handled righty pitching with an .382 wOBA and 146 wRC+. He has the power upside even in a neutral park like Turner Field.

Second Basemen

Anthony Rendon - FD 3900 DK 4800 DD 9850 SS 8900
Get your Coors while you can. Rendon has seen his price actually fall a little over the short term and that my friends is perfect timing. He’s facing an average pitcher in the best hitter’s park in baseball on the right side of his splits. That he has multi-position eligibility on some sites is only icing on the cake. Rendon is tattooing lefty pitching this season with an OPS over .950 and his prices are more than fair considering the matchup and park.

Jason Kipnis - FD 3700 DK 5000 DD 9800 SS 7800
Dude’s had a great month and we’ve been preaching the buy low mantra on him for a while. Probably falling out of that range now with his salary in some spots, but still makes for a solid value against a guy like Kyle Gibson who doesn’t profile as “dominant” or “good” or even “average”. The Tribe as a whole look attractive today and Kipnis near the top of the lineup could be posed for a nice day.

Consider Tommy la Stella

Shortstops

Ian Desmond - FD 3700 DK 4800 DD 9900 SS 7700
There is for sure some power upside here. My concern is that his price may have outstripped his value even at a weaker position. Paying these prices for a guy who hits near the bottom of the order is tough to swallow even with the matchup and the park. It’s the only thing tempering me on him today because all of the other factors are there.

Jed Lowrie - FD 2500 DK 3700 DD 7700 SS 4900
Hasn’t been all that good this year, but neither has Brad Peacock. The latter can strike guys out, but also walks everything in sight. Lowrie is coming at punt prices and though not spectacular, allows you some cheap value in order to spend in other places. SS is a bit like catcher today in that I could definitely make the case to go as cheap as possible.

Hanley
That being said, if you do want to spend because you’ve saved elsewhere, Hanley does dirty and disgusting things to lefty pitching. Things like a wOBA over .400 and an OPS over .900. Tough to spend up here, but even against Liriano he could be in for some big points.

Third Basemen

Ryan Zimmerman - FD 3700 DK 5300 DD 10600 SS 8100
Do I really need to through the reasoning here? The price has for sure corrected in some spots (though not on FanDuel) but he remains so intriguing because his lefty platoon splits are his bread and butter. Factor in the air in and around the Denver area and you’ve got the guy to spend on if you’ve saved some do-ra-mi in other places.

Danny Valencia - FD 2200 DK 3000 DD 6700 SS 3900
If you feel like going the other direction and spending close to the minimum then why not give my boy Danny a whirl. Why? How about the .936 OPS against lefties this season? Small sample size for sure, but his career numbers have him pegged as a lefty platoon guy and Jose Quintana, while not horrible, is ripe for the picking here. Our system loves Valencia on price and splits. Great option to save cash and assuming his hand is okay.

Consider Aramis Ramirez and Pedro Alvarez

Outfielders

Coco Crisp - FD 3700 DK 4500 DD 9400 SS 7800
Love what he brings to the table at the top of the order against a pitcher like Peacock with control issues. Crisp is real tough for righties to strike out and his .850 OPS and 143 wRC+ against that hand are the real deal. Throw in a little speed and I see him as a such a solid cash game play today. I’ll have him in every format mind you and I can see him being a low percentage start that pulls you some nice contrarian value.

Jayson Werth - FD 4400 DK 5500 DD 11850 SS 9500
The price is a little out of hand which is the only reason I have him so low on the list. He costs around the best hitters in the game, which he isn’t. He’s real good mind you, but he’s getting up to around the elite price point and that’s a bit much. That being said, this is Coors we’re talking about and Werth is so, so much better against lefties that leaving him off the picks would have felt icky.

Jose Bautista - FD 3500 DK 5000 DD 10600 SS 8600
Still criminally underpriced on a couple of site. Bautista faces Buchholz today who is so-so against righties, but is really not that good against anyone this season. I'm more looking at Bautista where the price is right like on FanDuel.

Shane Victorino - FD 2900 DK 3700 DD 8250 SS 5300
Back from injury and pitched in three hits yesterday in a Red Sox blow out. Victorino has historically been better against lefties over his career, but his price is in the realm of value if he's hitting at the top of the Sox lineup against a pitcher like Dickey who tends toward the wild side.

Shin-Soo Choo - FD 2700 DK 4300 DD 8450 SS 7100
Screw it. Ankle is clearly effecting him but David Phelps is marginal and Choo's price is reaching new lows. And I pick him every other day so whatever.

Consider Alex Gordon and Mike Trout if you can swing his salary.
Give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr and @dougnorrie.

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