Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftStreet for 7/11/14

Wilin Rosario FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 6307
With a mid .900s OPS against lefties, you'll be hard pressed to find a catcher with more upside than Wilin Rosario at home against a lefty who no major sports site seems to be able to acquire a picture of. If Kris Johnson makes it out of the fourth inning in this game, I'll film myself saying that I was wrong about how Kris Johnson would perform in this game.

Brian McCann FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5635
McCann's season line still looks pretty bad, but he's running at .45 points below his career BABIP levels, so color me unconcerned. McCann has been a righty killer his whole career, and Miguel Gonzalez's 64 Ks against 32 BBs in 84 IP this year shouldn't scare you off. If you want to go against the grain and fade the Rockies, you could do a lot worse than piling some left handed Yankees together today.

Buster Posey FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 6069
Posey's price has dipped into incredibly tempting territory on a lot of sites, and our projection system likes him in spite of the fact that he happens to be facing a right handed pitcher tonight. Fellow DFSR writer Doug Norrie would marry Michael Bolsinger if he weren't already spoken for, but I'll continue to line guys up against him. You can actually make the case for Bolsinger as a punt on some sites tonight, but I'll probably be going the other way and assuming another disaster.

Also considered: AJ Ellis, Jason Castro, Yan Gomes

First Basemen

Adrian Gonzalez FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 5947
Our system isn't convinced by Jesse Hahn's early season successes, and while Gonzalez isn't exactly anything to write home about this year either, he's proven that he can crush right handed pitching, even in San Diego. Gonzalez has run incredibly bad in terms of BABIP this year - more than .50 points off of his career, levels, so he'll be a bargain price until that number comes back to normal.

Carlos Santana FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 5120
He's another run-bad darling, and a guy that can put up a tremendous game in a pinch. Color me bearish on Noesi, but the guy has a worse than 2:1 K:BB ratio for his career, and an eyesore of a 4.60 xFIP. As I feel whenever Noesi pitches, I think he'll get chased early, and believe it might involve Santana taking a slow trot around the bases.

Chris Davis FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4900 DraftStreet 4645
Davis has shown signs of life in his last couple of games, but our projection system doesn't even know that. It's pretty sure that Davis isn't too far off the righty crushing monster he's been during the last several years of his career, and Kuroda's lack of strikeouts mitigates Davis' Achilles heel. It's definitely not a double-up play, but if you want to roll the dice on a monster game, I'd look at CD.

Also considered: Kendrys Morales, Mark Teixeira, Adam Dunn, Ryan Howard

Second Basemen

Brian Dozier FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 7319
Dozier's one of the premier HR/SB double threats in all of fantasy sports, and you're now getting a phenomenal price on a guy who has a .385 wOBA against left handed pitching for his career and who happens to be facing a left hander who has a worse than 2:1 K/BB this year in the world's best hitter's park. He'll be a hot play, but he'll be a hot play for a reason.

Jason Kipnis FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 6029
You can read Santana's write-up for info on why our projection system loves Jason Kipnis, with one added caveat - he's got the additional speed threat, and a wOBA 36 points higher against right handed pitching than left handed pitching.

Daniel Murphy FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 7063
Murphy isn't a huge upside play by any stretch, but he is a dynamite play if you just want a little consistency. He's tough to strike out, and boasts a high BABIP when he does make contact. Our system couldn't be more ready for Henderson Alvarez to turn into a pumpkin, and I'm picturing a slow and steady performance that leaves you satisfied by night's end.

Also considered: Aaron Hill, Charlie Culberson

Shortstops

Asdrubal Cabrera FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5250
Cabrera certainly has the feel of a guy who lacks upside, and if he doesn't whet your whistle, I can't blame you. But my whistle is soaking wet. Or something. Here's why - Noesi is about as prone as anyone to giving up a pile of runs, and when Cabrera is right he can pile up counting stats and turn out a pretty damned good line. If our projection system is right and Noesi gets chased early, the switch hitting Cabrera could see a lot of at bats and run scoring opportunities.

Troy Tulowitzki FanDuel 4700 DraftKings 5600 DraftStreet 10294
(another clever way to say right handed hitters in Coors couldn't find a better match up than Kris Johnson). The price is the only thing holding back my NL MVP.

Brad Miller FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3000 DraftStreet 3602
Miller gets the third slot almost by default. The first two guys on this list are way more appealing to me than Miller. He's strike out prone, and Samardzija can absolutely whiff a brother. What he has going for him? Basically, the price, and being left handed. This is a strict upside play, Miller could put together a good game if the Mariners use their right handed hitting abilities manage to come through. I'm not betting my bottom dollar, though.

Also considered: Jimmy Rollins

Third Basemen

Trevor Plouffe FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6148
The allure on Plouffe today is rather obvious - park and pitcher. Also working for Plouffe are his intense platoon splits. His performance against right handed pitching crushes his overall line (and price), but against lefties he's almost always a steal. He's got a career .350 wOBA against left handers, and the particular left hander he's facing is leaving me drooling.

Nolan Arenado FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 6272
Arenado remains intensely raw, but he can still put together a monster game in Coors field. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, you've got a right handed hitter who far prefers lefties facing a person named Kris Johnson who sounds more like a generic reliever in MLB 2014 the video game than a real pitcher.

Evan Longoria FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 6697
Longoria is having a down year, there's no doubt about it. But the overall line is incredibly masked by an awful year against right handed pitching. He's posted a .404 wOBA against left handers this year, and Mark Buehrle's pitch to contact approach is music to Longoria's ears. The park leaves a little bit to be desired, but all other signs point to a monster Longoria game.

Also considered: Pedro Alvarez, Martin Prado, Nick Castellanos

Outfielders

Josh Hamilton FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 6043
Get ready for a slew of relatively unpopular plays in the outfield, but I'm feeling a lot of resolve around trusting the projections recently. An off year for Hamilton? Sure. But he's still averaging 2.7 fantasy points per game on FanDuel, and he costs just $3,100. Nick Tepesch is an utter mess, with 31 Ks against 22 BBs in 51 innings, and the park won't do him any favors here either. If Hamilton has anything left in the tank, he will take full advantage here.

Bryce Harper FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 4543
Picking Harper these days requires one to bite one's lip and show a little fortitude, but there really isn't a higher upside player you could pull together for these prices in this situation. Burnett can definitely surrender the long ball, and Philly is a heck of a place for left handed hitters to hit.

Shin-Soo Choo FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 5279
The reason we continue to trust our projection system? Guys like Choo. For all of the (considerable) hate mail we got around picking Choo even through his slumps, Choo owners have enjoyed some solid returns these last two weeks. Garrett Richards is a fine young pitcher, but his wildness plays to Choo's greatest strength, and Texas is a great place to hit.

Desmond Jennings FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 5590
You can read Longoria's writeup and sub it in for Jennings'. His .370 wOBA against left handers and the power/speed potential is a lot to look at against the pitch to contact approach of Buehrle's.

Austin Jackson FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 4152
Jackson is a guy the system loves all the time, and it's just waiting for him to collect a pile of counting stats against the left handed Danny Duffy. You could make a case for a number of Tigers tonight (though the price is really getting up there), but Jackson is the one whose price remains to be right.

Jacoby Ellsbury FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 7651
Batting atop the Yankees' lefty-heavy lineup, Ellsbury should have a lot of opportunity to do what he does best against the right handed Gonzalez: get on base, run, and score runs.

Curtis Granderson FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 7082
With 4 bombs in the last 2 weeks, the Grandy Man is another guy that our projection system remained right on while everyone else (including us, sadly) continued to doubt him. He's back to being one of the premier upside plays in the game, and facing the pitch-to-contact Henderson Alvarez really helps him avoid his embarrassing strike-out problem. He only ding here is Alvarez's ground ball tendencies, but Granderson's uppercut swing can get a hold of anything.

Also considered: Matt Kemp, Domonic Brown, Yasiel Puig, Matt Holliday, Josh Wilingham, Matt Kemp

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