Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftStreet for 7/10/14

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Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw FanDuel 11300 DraftKings 13400 DraftStreet 30505
Let me start by saying that his price on DraftStreet is as high as I can remember ever seeing a salary and I think it's kind of a non-starter. I mean honestly, it's really high everywhere and you'll have to do some finagling if you want to get him in there. That being said, his expectation is about as high as I've seen for any pitcher this season as well. I mean he faces the lowly Padres and Kershaw is, well, Kershaw. He's striking out almost 12 batters per nine, has an xFIP of 1.64 and is just pretty much the best pitcher alive. Even for these salaries there is a case for playing him. That's how good he is.

Jon Lester FanDuel 8900 DraftKings 9900 DraftStreet 21207
I think this is the first time I've recommended him this season. It's not that he hasn't been good, his starts just happen to fall on the same days as some other big aces and he gets pushed aside. Today though he's on my radar. The White Sox are 25th in the league in team wOBA against lefties and strikeout 22% of the time. Fenway scares me a little (as does Jose Abreu) but the rest of the Pale Hose just aren't that good and the K potential is high.

Bartolo Colon FanDuel 7100 DraftKings 7300 DraftStreet 12868
It honestly seems like he throws a medicine ball to batters when he pitchers. It looks so straight but when they try and hit it the balls looks like it weighs a ton. The Braves, a primarily righty lineup, shockingly also struggle against righties. They rank 27th in the league in team OPS and strike out at a high rate. CitiField helps Colon's cause and the price is pretty advantageous considering he limits the walks and the opponent isn't all that good.

Homer Bailey FanDuel 8200 DraftKings 9100 DraftStreet 17927
Readers of these picks articles know that we've been a big Bailey supporter all season, claiming many of his early struggles were him getting unlucky. That has paid off as he's had some great starts recently. Look for him to continue the run today against the Cubs, a bottom-feeding offense against righties. Bailey has a solid 3:1 K:BB rate and an xFIP that's still trailing his ERA by more than half a run.

Catchers

Salvador Perez FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 6578
The splits haven’t played out the same way as his career numbers this year as Perez is typically very good against lefties. This season it’s been a different story with a sub .600 OPS. Yikes. But there is a moderate silver lining here. First off the Babip is an unsustainably low .190 which should regress a decent amount. Also he’s walking more than he’s striking out against southpaws. These are great signs that a bounce back is coming. And Drew Smyly is just the kind of guy to get things started.

Buster Posey FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 5671
I’m not usually a fan of targeting hitters against the better pitchers on a given day, but I’m willing to make an exception with Posey against Kazmir because the latter is awesome against lefties. He has a stupid low 3.8% K% against them and I’m sure that’s the lowest I’ve seen that number since I began writing these picks. He just doesn’t go down on strikes against lefties. The OPS is close to .900 and he is so good on this side of the split that I’m willing to roll him even against a strikeout pitcher.

Wilson Ramos FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5450
Another catcher with a solid platoon split against lefties. That’s going to be the theme of the day really. Ramos gets the job done with an OPS over .800 and he fits with a bunch of other Nats I’ll be picking today.

First Basemen

Mark Teixeira FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 7843
One thing to know about Teix this season is that his perceived struggles against lefties have a great deal to do with his Babip which sits at an ultra-low .222 mark. With some regression, his numbers are going to start mirroring his career averages, where he's much better in this side of the split. I'd play him against T.J. House, an average lefty with a low K rate.

Mike Napoli FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 4528
Has not so quietly killed lefties this season to the tune of a .920 OPS with a 162 wRC+. He's a nice bargain today across the industry even with Jose Quintana being a half decent lefty arm. I like Napoli's upside in Fenway today and he offers a lot of roster flexibility with his salary.

Adrian Gonzalez FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 7523
You know who's pretty bad? Odrisamer Despaigne. Don't let that sub one ERA fool you. He isn't good. The xFIP is a full four runs behind it and the Dodgers are set to regress his ass back into oblivion. I like the splits here for Gonzalez and think this is a good place to stack some Dodgers.

Second Basemen

Jason Kipnis FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 5369
David Phelps is basically the definition of replacement level pitcher and the Tribe should put up some runs today on him because his command leaves a lot to be desired and they are a patient team. Kipnis, in many spots, is still coming way cheap considering his talent and skill set. You might be getting sick of my picking him here, what seems like everyday. But there is a method to this madness. DFS is predicated on patience and buying at the most opportune time. Kipnis is a perfect example of this mantra.

Dustin Pedroia FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 6351
I’m a fan of a few different Red Sox today against Jose Quintana, Pedroia being a nice guy to slot in here on the positive side of his split. He’s not hammering lefties like he’s done in the past, but he’s still a decent hitter in regards to this platoon and walks more than he strikes out. That stat alone raises his floor on a given day and against Jose Quintana I can feel the Green Monster calling.

Daniel Murphy FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 6864
Aaron Harang is who we thought he was and he’s seen his early season run come to an end. He’s letting up a ton of hits and that’s perfect timing for Murphy who lives for contact. A cash game play here if you’re looking for a little safety. He won’t go nuts, but should have his bat on the ball.

Consider Dee Gordon

Shortstops

Asdrubal Cabrera FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 4738
You’ve seen me picking on David Phelps right? You know why? He's in trouble against the Indians who are super patient. Phelps gets wild and I want to take advantage of the idea that he won't be able to generate many swings and misses. Cabrera, hitting in the two hole, rates out high in the shortstop value and should stand to see and extra at bat today in a game that could get away from Phelps early.

Elvis Andrus FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 5215
With the help of a slightly inflated Babip, Andrus has been super solid against lefties this season and is cost effective across the industry. He's sporting an .858 Babip against southpaws with an under 10% strikeout rate. He's getting on base and that's the key with his skill set as he needs to be running and scoring runs. I like him today Hector Santiago who is mediocre at best.

Ian Desmond FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6076
Liked him yesterday before they switched Chen to today (Ian went yard anyway so let's just assume I continued liking him even with the pitching change). His split favors left handers and I'll be putting some Nats together for sure.

Third Basemen

Ryan Zimmerman FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 7710
With Chen pushed back, here is my write-up from yesterday.
You’ve seen some Nats on here because the righties in the their lineup really trend toward wanting to face lefties. And like I said, Chen isn’t a terrible pitcher but the splits dictate buys against him. Zimmerman’s been solid this season and has a 123 wRC+ against southpaws. That isn’t awe-inspiring but it gets the job done. He’s a solid price on FanDuel and in play everywhere else.

Aramis Ramirez FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 6683
Even in the righty/righty matchup I still like Aramis today mostly because David Buchanan blows. Buchanan strikes out less than six batters per nine innings with an xFIP in the mid 4’s. Again, Ramirez doesn’t kill righties, posting only a mid .700’s OPS against them this season, but this position is on the weaker side today and I think the Brewers will put up some runs for sure.

Danny Valencia FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 3000 DraftStreet 6719
Sneaky punt play on both FanDuel and DraftKings, because in a limited run Valencia has been awesome against lefties this season. His OPS is over .900 and he should be starting there today as they face Smyly. I wouldn’t touch it on DraftStreet, but on the other two he’s a great minimum price option at thin position.

Also consider Adrian Beltre

Outfielders

Alex Rios FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 5273
You know the drill here. Or at least you should. Rios is crushing lefties this season and it’s been a great split for him for quite some time now. This season he’s been one of the best in baseball at hitting southpaws with a .446 wOBA and 185 wRC+. There aren’t many guys going with better numbers than that. His problem this season has been the righties, but in DFS we don’t care about that. Hector Santiago isn’t horrible, but it’s not someone we avoid. Play Rios today at big discounts.

Jayson Werth FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 8524
With Chen pushed back, here is my write-up from yesterday.
Manhandles lefties for his career but is running a little bad in HR/FB% this season, keeping his numbers down. That's fine, it means the price is still reasonable in some spots (not on DraftStreet) and you can add him to the Nationals stack I've been not-so-subtly hinting at throughout this write-up.

Jay Bruce FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 7244
Great American Ballpark is one of the top stadiums in all of baseball for lefty power. It ranks right behind Coors, Yankee Stadiuma and just a few others. It’s a great place to target some hitters and with the reds facing noob Kyle Hendricks, Bruce is a solid spot to tag one.

Jonny Gomes FanDuel 2300 DraftKings 3200 DraftStreet 3866
Has been super solid against lefty pitching this season with an OPS close to .900 and a 145 wRc+. Gomes’ overall numbers are a little lower mostly because he’s getting more at bats against righties and that’s a no-no for this dude. But lefties? We are all over that and should have him in spots against Quintana today.

There are so many bad pitchers going today that I think there are a few outfield stacking options you might want to consider. Just going to make blanket statements here as it's difficult to distinguish individual value here, but playing a few of these guys together wouldn't be a bad idea

Brewers - Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez, Khris Davis
Tigers - Torii Hunter, Austin Jackson, J.D. Martinez
Cardinals - Allen Craig, Matt Holliday

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