Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftStreet for 7/4/14

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Pitchers

Chris Sale FanDuel 9900 DraftKings 11000 DraftStreet 24197
I know Kershaw is going today, but the Coors effect has me off that super stud just for today. His price is way too high considering he'll be pitching in the mile high air. Sale has no such concern. He faces a Mariner team ranking near the bottom of the league with a .292 wOBA. Sale's put up fantastic numbers this season with about a 5:1 K:BB ratio while striking out more than a batter an inning. The xFIP is under three and while he isn't cheap, I think the upside is for sure there even at his expensive salaries.

Gerrit Cole FanDuel 7900 DraftKings 9200 DraftStreet 16888
His first outing back after coming off the disabled list was less than stellar as he faced the lowly Mets offense and couldn't make it through five innings. I'm looking for a bounceback today against the even worse Phillies. They rank second to last in the league in wOBA against righties and are just a weak hitting bunch in general. Cole's season xFIP is in the mid 3's and he strikes out about a batter an inning. I wish he could limit the walks a little more allowing him to go longer in his outings. But the matchup is choice and I think once Cole knocks the DL cobwebs are off he should be good to go.

Lance Lynn FanDuel 7400 DraftKings 8400 DraftStreet 15555
Oh my goodness the Marlins strike out a lot. They K 24% of the time against righties and even though they power is there more than some bottom-feeding teams, I love targeting pitchers in situations where they can rack up the whiffs as a way to limit the downside from any potential offense the opposing team puts together. Lynn has been solid this season though he can be a bit hit or miss. When he breaks, he break bad. The last game was a disaster although it appears to be from a blister issue. I wouldn't put him in cash games by any means, but as an upside GPP play I think you can pull the trigger.

Matt Cain FanDuel 6800 DraftKings 7100 DraftStreet 16485
Probably wouldn't even consider him if he weren't pitching against the Padres and their bottom of the barrel offense. The distance in team wOBA between the Padres and the 29th ranked team is the same distance as 29th to 22nd. They are bad. Cain isn't good either, but his mid tier pricing against such a bad team seems to offer some safety especially on sites that require starting more than one starting pitcher. He'd be a cash game play for me in those instances.

Note: Yu Darvish was pushed back and is facing Mets today. This is another great play. FWIW, I prefer Sale for the money, but Darvish's raw points expectation is the highest of any pitcher. 

Consider Roenis Elias

Catchers

Buster Posey FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 7999
Don't put too much thought into this one. Posey is a dude owning some major splits when it comes to facing lefties and his "down" season isn't because of any lack of success in facing that hand. He's sporting close to a .900 OPS against southpaws this year with a 154 wRC+. And Eric Stults is pretty much a pile of pitching garbage. Posey is coming in at fantastic prices across the industry and should be heavily featured in your lineups except maybe on DraftStreet where the price makes the choice just a little closer.

Stephen Vogt FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 2800 DraftStreet 5137
Not a guy I've mentioned at all this season, but he's been getting playing time over the last week and making the most of it in general. Our system doesn't account for this, liking him instead on his projections forward and the price. But the early .800 OPS and 131 wRC+ sure do look nice and make the rec just a little easier.

Brian McCann FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 5482
I might just make this a running joke in which I pick him every single day and then pat myself on the back when the picks actually come through. All kidding aside though, the prices still haven't corrected and I want to take advantage. DFS baseball is a long game and you need to weather some run bad along the way. McCann is an example of this.

First Basemen

Joey Votto FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 7005
Gone are the 30 home runs per year potential we though we'd see from Votto. What a shame, especially for my long term, very deep keeper league. But this is DFS baby and we are going on a day-to-day basis. I'm not loving many of the big bopping first basemen today. Votto faces Kyle Lohse, a pitcher who K's less than seven batters per nine (though he does limit the walks as well). I'll take this considering Votto should make contact today and the game is in Cincy, a fantastic hitter's ballpark.

Ike Davis FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 3000 DraftStreet 5860
Not exciting by any stretch of the imagination. Ike is the rare first baseman who doesn't hit for any real consistent power. So that's a downside. But there is a moderate upside in that he comes at extremely cheap prices and gets on base at a .361 clip. A lot of that is thanks to his 15% BB rate which is in the same range as his strikeout rate. Hitting behind McCutch helps and facing Roberto Hernandez is another plus. Again, not going to power you to an insane day, but is fairly safe for cash games at close to punt prices.

Freddie Freeman FanDuel 4000 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 8145
Getting a little expensive here but Josh Collmenter is a bad pitcher with an xFIP in the mid 4's and a K/9 in the mid 5's. That's a nice place to meet on the graph when you're choosing hitters to face him. Freeman's posting a solid season, just behind his .900 OPS affair last season. Lot to like about him today, you'll just have to pay up a bit.

Second Basemen

Daniel Murphy FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 6054
A contact hitter through and through Murphy's batting profile is the perfect DFS match for what Nick Tepesch is throwing out there. The latter strikes out less than six batters per nine while walking almost four. Those are pretty awful numbers and mixed with Murphy's equally low K rate you have a great shot at him putting some points together through multiple hits. Murphy doesn't have the power upside that'll win you a tournament but his price doesn't inhibit roster construction in anyway.

Jason Kipnis FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 4519
This consideration is mostly on price. Kipnis remains at very advantageous salaries considering what he can across multiple columns on the back of the baseball card. Sure the matchup with Ventura isn't ideal, but the latter is far from an ace and this position is awfully weak today.

Tommy La Stella FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 6319
I absolutely love the walk rate from this guy considering it's higher than his strike out rate. That's no small feat and there aren't many dudes in baseball who can make a similar claim. He doesn't have any real power to speak of, or speed for that matter. But he gets on base consistently and from second base today that's all you can ask for. And with Collmenter on the mound, there is a high probability la Stella sees first base at least.

Shortstops

Hanley Ramirez FanDuel 4600 DraftKings 5100 DraftStreet 9115
Played last night after basically sitting out a few days with a tweak. But he's back and playing in Coors against a lefty. Hanley's torched southpaws this season with an OPS over .900 and a .398 wOBA. Expect that trend to continue in Coors against Jorge de la Rosa. His price is high across the industry, but that's because he's by far the best shortstop going today in terms of raw points. And honestly, even at the high salaries I think the value is there with the matchup and the ballpark.

Elvis Andrus FanDuel 2300 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 4783
Talk about a step down huh? But if you don't want to pay up for Hanley, this is a good place to start. Andrus prefers hitting against lefties and while Niese is no pushover, SS as a whole doesn't have a million quality options (shocking). He's been so much better against lefties this season with a nearly 50 point difference in his wRC+ splits (119 to 61) making this a perfect time to grab him at some low prices and round out the rest of your lineup with some more bucks to spend.

Honestly, I'm not seeing too much else to get excited about today but if you are playing the early slate consider Xander Bogaerts

Third Basemen

Evan Longoria FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 6320
As I wrote the other day, Longoria's struggles this season haven't been because of any issues with lefty pitching. His OPS is over .900 agains that hand and the ISO's sitting at a healthy .155, meaning he is laying waste to that platoon split. Love buying him at lower prices based on the full season performance while recognizing that the issues stem primarily from hitting righty pitching. Against Drew Smyly Longoria makes the top third base option on the day.

Carlos Santana FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 5328
We've been on Carlos since the beginning trying to hammer home the idea that so much of his early season problems were simply a matter of bad luck. He's turned it around to some degree and shown power along with a fantastic walk rate. These two things play big time to upside and even with Yordano Ventura on the mound I think you can work him in here because Ventura doesn't K anything close to stud pitcher numbers. The Babip is still set to regress some and dare I say he has a lot of hits left in that bat.

Pedro Alvarez FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 6767
Really only considering him for that early slate of games. Alvarez is all power, a little BB's and a hell of a lot of K's. That makes him a problem for sites like DraftStreet, but on the non-efficiency sites you can play him against Roberto Hernandez even if PNC Park isn't necessarily a power hitter's paradise.

Outfielders

Yasiel Puig FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 5700 DraftStreet 8679
Matt Kemp FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 6516
Scott Van Slyke FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 5647
I know this looks awfully familiar to yesterday. But what would you have me do? These guys all (except more recently Kemp) kill lefties and are playing in the atmospheric baseball equivalent of the moon. Balls just keep going and going. Jorge de la Rosa has an xFIP in the low 4's, struggles to strike batters out, lives to walk three and a half guys per nine and is just, in general, a mediocre arm. I like how all three of these guys are at different price points but all represent similar value depending on their salaries. That makes mixing and matching pretty easy with whatever direction you decide to go with lineups. I suppose there is a case for fading this game although I don't think I'll be doing it too much. Just seems quite risky considering the splits, park and prices.

Note: Looks like Jurrjens is starting for de la Rosa in Coors. This bumps down Hanley and Puig a bit while taking Van Slyke out of the equation in favor of Ethier.

Alex Rios FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 4464
He's a guy you almost have to play against lefties and at these prices he definitely becomes nearly a must play. Here's a guy who this year has a 1.121 OPS and 197 wRC+ against lefties. Sure it's Babip fueled but the last few seasons have seen him produce big numbers against lefties. And these prices are a joke. The FanDuel and DraftStreet prices are pretty much punts. Sure Niese is a decent pitcher and Citi Field isn't a hitter's park. I'm still going with him because of the platoon splits and flexibility he gives your lineup.

Desmond Jennings FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 5483
Another fantastic play against lefties whose price is down because he really can't hit righties at all. This season Jennings has an OPS over .850 with a 142 wRC+ against southpaws. Drew Smyly is a mediocre pitcher and Jennings typically hits near the top of the lineup in these games. Jennings has just enough power and speed to offer a fair amount of upside, the price is completely reasonable and he will be a low % play because I think he is off many a radar.

Jacoby Ellsbury FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 7364
Kyle Gibson's terribleness has regressed to just mediocre. But I think you can snag Ellsbury still coming cheaper because Gibson's GB% is so high it could give Ells a chance at getting on base an using speed to his advantage. Especially considering Gibson strikes out almost no one. Not a fantastic value, but it's in the range.

Consider Gregory Polanco
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