Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftStreet for 7/3/14

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Pitchers

Short slate going today. Will give a few value plays you can hone in on for the day.

Madison Bumgarner FanDuel 9400 DraftKings 9800 DraftStreet 18677
A lot of aces going today which makes it so you are going to need to fade a few of them at least. Darvish and Tanaka are probably priced almost to the breaking point and Darvish in particular has a rough matchup in a bad ballpark. Tanaka is a little closer considering the Twins have lagged in offense lately and park is built for pitchers. I can make a case for him for sure. But I think I am going to go with Bumgarner here as he is priced below the top tier of dudes and has a great matchup against the Cardinals who rank 21st in the league in team wOBA against lefties. Bumgarner is just steady Eddie, keeping the K's consistent limiting the walks enough to go later into games.

Matt Shoemaker FanDuel 6600 DraftKings 6800 DraftStreet 14064
There is a crazy deal going on this guy today. Let others be fooled by his 4.50 ERA while they don't see the low 3's xFIP and about a strikeout an inning. He keeps the walks low and really has been kind of awesome this season to date. The Astros are significantly worse against righties while striking out 24% of the time. Shoemaker makes a great second pitcher where applicable and honestly you can consider rolling him solo on FanDuel.

Strongly consider Masahiro Tanaka

 

Catchers

Miguel Montero FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 6227
I don't love the ballpark as PNC plays more for pitchers than hitters. But Montero has a solid matchup against a run hot Vance Worley and Miguel is much, much, much (and I could probably keep going there) better against righties than lefties. Consider the 141 to 7 differences in wRC+. 7! That's as low as I've seen from an everyday position player. But alas, it matters not as he gets the righty and is coming in the mid-tier of prices.

Brian McCann FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 5083
A broke watch is right twice a day. Or something like that. We've been picking McCann for awhile now expecting a breakout. And one game does not a hot streak make, but yesterday was at least a positive sign, going 2-4 with a dong. Here's to it continuing against Phil Hughes today. Hughes has been good this season and the ballpark isn't great for McCann, but I'm not seeing many other clear plays at catcher today.

 

First Basemen

Miguel Cabrera FanDuel 4500 DraftKings 5800 DraftStreet 9559
If you are looking to employ one big bopper not playing in Coors, then he is the one. Miggy be Miggy and facing Erik Bedard is a great place to grab him. Cabrera crushes all hands with impunity and Bedard, though he's sporting a decent K rate this season, is also rocking an xFIP in the fours, a healthy walk rate and has been running a little lucky in the HR/FB%. A little pricey in some spots is Miggy, but go for it. You only live once.

Paul Goldschmidt FanDuel 4900 DraftKings 5100 DraftStreet 6555
Not always a fan of just picking the most expensive guys at every position. There are some who might go that route with their picks, but we avoid it, instead opting for value hunting. But today man lower end 1b's have rough matchups so I think you can actually spend up here on Goldie. He faces Vance Worley, a guy who's xFIP is 2.5 runs higher than his 1.74 ERA.

 

Second Basemen

Derek Dietrich FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3200 DraftStreet 4946
Only in baseball to hit righties and he does that pretty well. Deitrich has a 118 wRC+ this season against that hand (he doesn't play against lefties) with a little pop. He usually hits at the top of the order and gets on base enough to limit his downside because of the low average. This position doesn't wow me today and I'm willing to go cheap to either fit a bigger bat or one of the stud pitchers.

Ian Kinsler FanDuel 4300 DraftKings 5000 DraftStreet 9082
Only lower because of the price, not because of the skills. Kinsler hasn't gone the way of his career splits this season, much to my chagrin and bankroll. But the "struggles" against lefties don't seem to be much more than a reduced HR/FB% and a few less walks. I'm all over some Tigers today against Bedard and think they go off. Struggles with lefties be damned.

Consider Neil Walker

 

Shortstops

Elvis Andrus FanDuel 2300 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5511
I’m always on him a little more when he’s facing lefties and the price on Andrus is so cheap that it’s hard to find better value today. Much of his upside is wrapped up in the speed and scoring runs. The ballpark helps him a little here mostly because of what will happen once he’s on base. The Rangers, with some big lefty mashers in the middle of the lineups in Rios and Beltre could help Andrus if he can set the table against Chen. SS is not awesome and I want to go cheap here.

Jed Lowrie FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 5820
Lowrie isn't a masher by any means, but I like him on certain days in particular matchups because I think he can provide some value on the cheap. He walks almost as much as he k's which is worth noticing as he faces a pitcher in Dickey who gives free passes almost four times per nine innings. Also, Lowrie is notoriously a lower Babip guy, but his number there is low even for him and it has effected his overall performance. Expect some regression on that front.

 

Third Basemen

Nick Castellanos FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3300 DraftStreet 5211
Whenever there are lefties on the mound against Detroit you'll see Castellanos in our picks. He's always coming really cheap and has dramatic platoon splits against lefties. This season his 142 wRC+ and .882 OPS against lefties speak to a guy who could possibly stand to just be a platoon player as they are significantly different from what he does against righties. But his prices across the industry are produced on his lack of production in the aggregate and that's great news for you.

Pablo Sandoval FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 6368
I haven't put Panda in our picks in awhile. Good to have the big guy back. He's having a typical Sandoval season with the big difference being an early spike in power. The interesting thing there is I don't see anything on the surface that would suggest it's fluky. He's probably headed for power numbers similar to what he was putting up a few years ago. Against Carlos Martinez he's a clear buy at a weaker position.

 

Outfielders

Yasiel Puig FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 5300 DraftStreet 8954
Matt Kemp FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 6373
Scott Van Slyke FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3300 DraftStreet 5529
If Puig is less than a 90% start on FanDuel tomorrow, something is seriously wrong. Like he's dead or something. And the rest of his crew in the outfield will be big time starts against the lefty in Coors. You all know the story by this point so I'm not sure how advantageous it is to repeat the same concepts. You want to target guys as they enter the Mile High goodness of Denver, where every flyball has a chance and where OPS's go to climb. On such a short slate too, these decisions become even easier. Franklin Morales is a mediocre lefty and I'll have many shares of these guys spread across the industry.

Alex Rios FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 6295
Rios is the one guy who could get me away from the value going on in Denver. He's playing in an almost equally advantageous park in Camden Yards against a lefty in Chen. Lefties are the times to get as many shares as Rios as possible. He crushes them. The splits are huge, huge and you should have some exposure to him considering his prices have reached rock bottom for his upside.

Torii Hunter FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 5626
J.D. Martinez FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6600
Only if you are dying to get away from the guys above and want to stack some Tigers against Bedard. Who stinks.

Consider Marlon Byrd
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