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On to the picks.
I think I'm on a Kershaw fade today. I know he's amazing and is by far the best pitcher going. His price is just too much of a handcuff. There is some pitcher value out there. The options aren't as good from a raw points perspective, but the Royals are K happy and Clayton is steep.
Scott Kazmir FanDuel 8800 DraftKings 9000 DraftStreet 20851
Let me start by saying that Kazmir isn't nearly as good as his low two's ERA would suggest. And his price is reflective of the ERA so you are going to overpay a little here. But the matchup in the Mets is choice and the ballpark helps his case even more. The strikeouts aren't where they were last season, but neither are the walks. He's running crazy awesome in Babip so my excitement is tempered though the Mets strike out almost 25% of the time against lefty pitching. There are some automatic outs in their lineup against lefties. Kazmir is a solid option on a weird pitching day.
Homer Bailey FanDuel 8200 DraftKings 8500 DraftStreet 16233
He's been incredibly unlucky this season. Like off the charts running bad. Of course some of it is his own doing. He does let up too many home runs. But even for him it's been a rough go of it with a HR/FB% much higher than his career averages. Additionally his Babip is about 30 points higher than his career numbers. The K's are there and his xFIP is solidly in the mid threes. I think he'll be off many a radar today because of the inflated ERA, but it's a little of a smokescreen. Use it to your advantage and roll him out there against a weak Cubs team.
Yovani Gallardo FanDuel 7300 DraftKings 7600 DraftStreet 15754
To some degree Gallardo has learned to live with the idea of striking out less batters on average. He's begun by lowering his walk rate. He's also inducing more groundballs. Some of this could be luck but GB% tends to normalize pretty quickly and he could be pitching more to contact in an effort to get easier outs. A lower Babip helps too, but this could also be reflective of a new approach. The Nationals are in the bottom third of the league against righties and Gallardo has been good of late.
Jesse Hahn FanDuel 6500 DraftKings 8000 DraftStreet 12223
Here's your punt option for the day. Jesse Hahn has shown some big time K upside in his first three starts this year. Granted those starts were against the Pirates, Mets and Mariners but we can't fault him for opponent. He delivered. The Giants aren't much better than that previous group, sitting in the middle of the pack against righties. This is a nice, cheap option on multi-SP sites. Hahn's K-ing more than 10 per 9 and the early xFIP is under three. Lot of ways this guy can go, but the early returns are strong.
Consider Andrew Heaney and C.J. Wilson
There's one kind of obvious play and then a bunch of cheap catchers available tomorrow with solid matchups. I'm going to rapid fire them as for once this position has some solid value.
Yadier Molina FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 6257
Not a ton of explanation needed here. Had a rough night in Coors on Monday, but is in a great spot against the lefty de la Rosa today. Molina is better against lefties and his OPS is about .150 points higher against that hand this year though for his career it's not as drastic a difference. Still, facing a lefty in Coors at super cheap prices at somewhat fair prices is an upside play. He's not a must start for me as there is value behind him, but the potential is there, as always in Denver.
Alex Avila FanDuel 2300 DraftKings 3300 DraftStreet 3947
His K% is too high this year, but that's where a guy like Colby Lewis comes into play. Lewis is garbage throwing in a hitter's park. Avila is a min-salary guy with a little pop. And though he K's a ton, he also has a 14% walk rate. I wouldn't run him out there on efficiency sites like DS because of the whiffs, but he should be able to grind out some points today.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3200 DraftStreet 4796
Still think he can take advantage of Citizen's Bank big boost in power for lefties. Salty, like Avila isa strikeout waiting to happen. But David Buchanan is a contact pitcher looking to put the ball in play.
Carlos Ruiz FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5242
I don't hate Andrew Heaney, but Ruiz is just so god-damned good against lefties that I want to target him any time one is one the mound (who isn't named like Kershaw or something). Ruiz's .952 OPS against lefties this season tells the tale of what he's been doing in his recent career. Slaughtering this hand.
Consider Yan Gomes
Nick Swisher FanDuel 2300 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 4431
Getting a little crazy today. But I like this play for a lot of reasons. For his career Swish is better against lefties. This season has been a bit of a disaster for the guy but some of it can probably be attributed to bad luck. His Babip, especially against lefties (his dominant split) is below .200, the HR/FB is half of his career averages while the rest of his batted ball profile is pretty much in line except for a spike in IFFB%. The park in Arlington is great for hitters and Drew Smyly is a guy Swisher could turn it around against. Loving this play today.
Justin Morneau FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4900 DraftStreet 9315
I think Shelby Miller is broken. And I think he's a broken flyball pitcher heading into Coors Field. This is bad news. When you can't strike batters out here and when the hits you allow head into the air, it's all over red rover. Want to target as many lefty Rockies bats as possible in some stacks today.
Mark Teixeira FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 7368
Mark Buehrle is bad right? Right? He strikes out less than six guys per nine, walks enough to make that number look even worse, and has an xFIP about two runs higher than his low two's ERA. He's benefited from a high strand rate and a little Babip help. It has to come crashing down at some point. I'll take a stab at Teix, a much better hitter against lefties, going in a park that helps power numbers to righties. I don't think he'll be a popular play and you can grab some contrarian advantage here.
Consider Joey Votto and Adam Lind
Almost just wrote "SKIP" in place of making any picks for this position today.
Dustin Pedroia FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 7128
Willing to consider Pedroia on the wrong side of his split mostly because the position is so weak today and Erasmo Ramirez is so bad. It's not like Pedroia can't hit righties, it's just that he's vastly superior on the other side of this platoon. This year has done him no favors hitting righties, but I'll take this play on the idea that Erasmo limits Pedroia's K expectation and also increases the likelihood of as free pass as the guy averages almost 4.5 BB's per nine.
Brian Dozier FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 6262
Positive side of the split but a less-than-ideal matchup against Wilson. On a day with a lot of loser pitchers going it feels a bit odd to take a hitter against one of the better ones, but that's the state of affairs at second base today. You may end punting this position completely with some min guy who gets the start. But if you want to spend a little Dozier is excellent against lefties and has the power/speed combo in bunches that limits his basement.
Brian Roberts FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 5182
Sort of what I meant by choosing a punt option and just moving on with your life. Is slightly better against lefties and Buehlre's soft-tossing nature makes me confident Roberts will at least get the ball in play. He can swipe a bag. But mostly you are going to get singles and with a stroke of luck, a run scored. How's that for an endorsement?
Elvis Andrus FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 6268
Hitting near the top of the order for the Rangers should prove beneficial today for Andrus. He himself is better against lefty pitching for his career and this season has seen a particularly distinct platoon split happening in his favor. His OPS is over .800 against lefty pitching. That, combined with Rios and Beltre, two guys we'll get to in a moment, hitting behind him has the stars aligning for this to be a top SS play on the day.
Jhonny Peralta FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5489
For his career, Peralta is actually pretty platoon neutral so he doesn't get much of a boost from facing the lefty de la Rosa. That being said, the Coors Field bump is in effect here for Jhonny who's had a solid year with the bat, especially on the power side. His wRC+ against lefties for his career is 110 and even with a low Babip this season he's been an effective offensive player. I like, don't love him and there's a chance he's an overstart because of the park. But he's solid.
Jose Reyes FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 6534
A little price especially on DraftStreet where I think I'd probably avoid him, but Reyes has a solid matchup against Phelps who struggles with command. This game has a high over/under with Vegas thinking more of the runs will come from the Jays side. Duh. If you have saved enough in other areas, Reyes makes a decent option here tonight.
Consider J.J. Hardy
Carlos Santana FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6369
A ton to love about Carlos today. He's had a horribly unlucky year at the plate with a Babip well off his career averages thanks in large part to a decreased LD%. That second piece is somewhat troubling as batted balls do tend to normalize quickly. But the walks are through the roof at over 18%. You won't see it much higher than that and over his career he's had a 137 wRC+ against lefties. It's tough to know what to think about Wade Miley as he's been pretty good this season, but the ballpark for sure helps Carlos and third doesn't have a ton of viable options today.
Adrian Beltre FanDuel 4100 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 6599
Our system isn't as high on Beltre as I thought it'd be considering he's facing the lefty Smyly. Part of this is Beltre doesn't have huge platoon splits as he's been effective against both hands over his career. The other issue is price as you'll have to pay up to get him. But Beltre is solid, Smyly is meh and a career 129 wRC+ against lefties combined with the ballpark playing great for righties has Beltre on my radar and I'll be featuring a few Rangers stacks today.
David Wright FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 5088
Not an enormous fan of picking hitters will suboptimal pitching matchups but Wright's success against lefties warrants at least a look. Wright's OPS against lefties this season is close to 1.000 and he's only suffered from not getting to face them enough.
Consider Brock Holt
Matt Holliday FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4900 DraftStreet 6291
Allen Craig FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 5873
These plays are rather obvious. Both are squaring off against a lefty in Coors. Holliday is more platoon neutral than Craig and has struggled some this year mainly in the power department. This is thanks in large part to a greatly reduced Hr/FB rate. But if there was ever a number like that to regress positively it's Coors Field. Craig on the other hand has a slight platoon advantage in facing the lefty today. His career .374 wOBA against them makes him solid and this year he's seen an even greater range favoring hitting against southpaws. Especially on FanDuel and DraftStreet these guys will be high percentage starts as their prices are very much on the low end considering the circumstances.
Alex Rios FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 5882
Have you seen what Alex Rios does to lefty pitching? It's X-rated (the good kind, not that weird stuff). This season alone his 215 wRC+ and 1.183 OPS are just reflective of a more recent career trend that's seen him manhandle this hand. He is coming super cheap across the board and I went so far as to call him a "must play" while talking with Chris on LuTv. I'm sticking with that as his salary makes it easy to fit and you can make an outfield of Holliday, Craig and Rios in cash games that allows for massive flexibility to overspend at other positions that are a little weaker.
Nelson Cruz FanDuel 4400 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 7021
Adam Jones FanDuel 4300 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 7115
If you want to get a little pricier both of these guys are in a great position against the lefty Quintana in Baltimore, a great hitter's park. Their raw expectations are among the best in the field today the only problem being the price. If you are stacking Orioles (a viable consideration) then slot them in. But in some formats it's going to be a lot easier getting the three guys above into play for less money. But I didn't want to leave them off because I think they could go off tonight.
Desmond Jennings FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 6018
Jeff Locke is a reverse splits guy in that he's better against righties than lefties, but Jennings is so good against lefties for his career and is coming cheap across the board that I think he make a solid punt-type play today.
Alfonso Soriano FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 4605
This is your super punt on the day. Soriano is basically only playing against lefty pitching now because that's all he can hit. But his minimum price is advantageous if you are looking to pay up for Kershaw today. And Alfonso can still get it done against southpaws.
Consider Gerardo Parra, Marlon Byrd and Josh Hamilton
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