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Masahiro Tanaka FanDuel 11400 DraftKings 11900 DraftStreet 25585
Tough to choose between Darvish and Tanaka in this top ace spot. Though our system prefers Darvish to a certain degree, I think I'm going to roll Tanaka if I can fit the budget which won't be easy. He isn't a universal play because the cost is prohibitive (on both guys), but there's no denying what kind of pitcher he's been this season. The K rate is close to 10.5 per nine innings while the equally real story are the walks. They must not have a word for those in Japanese because he doesn't really issue them. His 1.44 BB/9 rate is minuscule allowing for a 7:1 K:BB rate that's among the best in the majors. This is what separates he and Darvish today because they both strike out a lot of guys and both face offenses ranked in the top third of the league against righties. But Tanaka is much more efficient and that wins you points in my book.
There are some midrange pitchers that look appealing today so by no means is Tanaka a must-play today.
Hyun-Jin Ryu FanDuel 8200 DraftKings 9000 DraftStreet 17600
The Padres, as I write nearly every day, suck. They are a minor league team wearing major league uniforms. I doubt the folks in San Diego care a whole hell of a lot about this because of the awesome weather, ocean, sunshine, etc. But we care because targeting these guys is profit-generating. Ryu is an above average pitchers who gets just enough swings and misses to think he has some upside in this matchup. He strikes out seven batters per nine, limits the walks and has an xFIP in the mis threes. The park is a big advantage as righty hitters have a hell of a time putting one out to left. His mid-tier salary looks awfully inviting in this spot.
Dallas Keuchel FanDuel 8100 DraftKings 9500 DraftStreet 17596
Peripherals a lot like Ryu with a slightly worse matchup. Keuchel's xFIP is below three this season and stands to stay that way against the Rays, a club underperforming to say the least. They rank 24th in the league in team wOBA against lefties and are striking out more too at 21% of the time. Like Ryu, the park helps Dallas here as the Trop is right with Petco in keeping down power for righties.
Yordano Ventura FanDuel 7700 DraftKings 7200 DraftStreet 16462
The velocity seemed to return last game even if the K's didn't come with it. I'm okay with that as he faced the Tigers, a top five team against righties. The Mariners are not the Tigers. Ventura's price is still low thanks to the injury and if you are looking for a guy people are scared off of (for acceptable reasons) this is a solid spot to bring a little contrarian on the cheap. The M's are 25th in the league in OPS against righties and strike out 21.5% of the time. The game is in Safeco and I think Ventura bumps his K's up a tic today.
Michael Bolsinger FanDuel 7300 DraftKings 6100 DraftStreet 9914
This is your cheap upside play of the day. Some numbers you might not have known about Bolsinger. He strikes out almost a batter an inning with an 8.4 K/9 rate. He walks less than 2.5 per nine. And his xFIP is more than two and half runs less than his ERA. I am falling in love. A .351 Babip against has his ERA out of the box and while not an ace, this guy is super cheap and great to slot on multi-SP sites. Especially DraftStreet. Chase Field does him no favors but the Giants are an average team against righties and K 22% of the time. Love this pitcher punt.
Consider Phil Hughes, Jason Hammel and Jon Niese
I don't think I'll be doing it this way anymore, nor do I think this is what happens every time a team comes to Coors. Few teams are so extreme in their handedness down the lineup and they've, two straight days, faced a lefty in the best hitter's park in baseball. Some sites have corrected prices on these guys to some degree. But not enough universally. You probably need to have exposure to at least some of them in your lineups. Facing Matzek, a lefty with an xFIP close to four should mean another set of offense. Again, the prices are steeper but fading this group completely is probably not a great idea. This is list is generally how I would rank these guys in terms of Pts/S.
Ryan Braun FanDuel 4500 DraftKings 6100 DraftStreet 9364
Aramis Ramirez FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 5600 DraftStreet 7896
Mark Reynolds FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 5174
Khris Davis FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 8159
Jean Segura FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 5636
Rickie Weeks FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 4910
Jonathan Lucroy FanDuel 4700 DraftKings 5800 DraftStreet 8151
Carlos Gomez FanDuel 4700 DraftKings 5400 DraftStreet 9205
Tough position today as the heavier hitters, or ones with good splits have tougher matchups or are overpriced.
Brian McCann FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 6794
Getting tougher and tougher to continuing recommending him. He is getting massively unlucky this season. I can attest to this from both a statistical standpoint (.236 Babip) and an anectdotal view where I watched him hit the ball on the screws three times on Thursday night all directly at people. It happens. We are buying low here. His batted ball profile is right in line with his career stats so I don't think it's an adjustment or injury thing. He is a good play in a good park against a flyball pitcher. Do it.
Kurt Suzuki FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 4726
Outside of Lucroy for sheer numbers and McCann on value catcher is rough today. You know it's rough when you see this loser get his name in bold with a Razzball link. Dire straits indeed. He is bad, but slightly less bad against lefties and John Danks is always a dude to take a run at. Won't give you power, but does make contact and the Twins stand to put up some runs today against the weaker lefty.
Consider Salvador Perez
These guys are after Mark Reynolds of course.
Joey Votto FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 6864
*I wrote this the other night and Dickey was scratched. Everything still applies.
R.A. Dickey’s been pretty garbage-y this year and I expect Votto is able to take advantage. First off Dickey’s been walking the ballpark, averaging close to four free passes per nine. He also isn’t going to see the strikeout numbers he enjoyed from his Cy Young run a few years ago. He’s just a different guy, and not in a good way. Votto on the other hand is as patient as they come and Great American Ballpark really helps lefties in terms of power. I’m on board with this as a solid cash game play because he should be at least able put some points together.
Anthony Rizzo FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 8512
Recommended him yesterday and he paid nicely with a home run and some RBIs. I'm on that wagon again today against this likes of Brandon Cumpton, a dude whose name just sounds like he wants to get rocked. Cumpton strikes out less than six guys per nine and Rizzo's been turning in an elite offensive year so far, hitting for tons of power and taking walks like a really patient madman. Good spot for him to put his bat on the ball and while he gets a slight knock because his teammates stink at hitting, is in play today because of the weaker pitcher.
Consider Ryan Howard and Jose Abreu
Brian Dozier FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 7306
So, so much to love about Dozier today. He's an extreme splits guy that rakes lefties with an OPS north of .900 over the last year. His .395 wOBA backs it up. This year he's got a 135 wRC+ against lefties and that's with a Babip well below his career averages. He walks a ton and gets to face John Danks of all people. He's on his way to a 30/30 season and I will have a lot of Dozier today.
Chase Utley FanDuel 3900 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 7303
In his first start of the season Carlos Martinez lasted only four innings against the Mets striking out three and walking four. He was on a pitch count for sure, but I don't expect him to go deep in this game. And am not scared about the time he'll be in there. Really like Utley's prices today across the board and he makes for a solid play even with the ballpark knocking power down for lefties. Utley's game is more in the gaps as it is and he should make contact today against a pitcher who didn't have elite strikeout stuff even in a bullpen role.
Consider Dustin Pedroia and Jose Altuve who each have great splits but are pricey.
Jimmy Rollins FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6647
I like Rollins for many of the same reasons I like Utley. Carlos Martinez just might not be a starting major league pitcher and that's an eventuality we want to target. Rollins is having a solid season at the dish, swiping more bags thanks in large part to an increase in to a 3% bump in his walk rate. He's also already eclipsed his home run mark from last year. And while I don't particularly like buying on past performance (or using it to project future gains) this could be a real thing for Rollins. He ran bad in power last season with a low HR/FB%. That number is back to his career averages it stands to reason he keeps it up.
Elvis Andrus FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5566
We for sure want to only use him against lefties and Hector Santiago is one such guy. Dude has been garbage this year with an xFIP in the mid 4's and walking a ton of guys. And for a lefty, he's actually below average in his career keeping runners from stealing bags. This is great news for Andrus who could see an extra turn or two on base today with the possibility of a free pass as well as Santiago lacking high level strike out stuff. Andrus OPS's about .100 point higher against lefties and hitting at the top of the order against a weak arm never hurts.
Editor's note: Santiago has been pushed back. Righty Shoemaker starting. Bump down Elvis.
Consider Hanley Ramirez against the lefty Stults. But he's expensive and ballpark does him no favors.
Josh Donaldson FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 6549
Is so good against lefties, and this position after Aramis is weaker so I'm willing to play him even against a good pitcher like Lester. Donaldson's numbers against southpaws are overwhelming. He has a 164 wRC+ and an OPS close to 1K. His cooler run of late has his prices right in the buy range and that's a big reason I have him as a top play here. Lester's been good this year, but his last three games have him trending in the wrong direction. It's a little wonky of me to use "recent performance" in two separate ways to make a point, but I think it's a little different for hitters and pitchers. I love the prices on Donaldson today and am willing to go with the splits here.
Matt Carpenter FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 6232
Kind of a lot needs to happen for Carpenter to really hit value. Not exactly a ringing endorsement, but 3B is a weak today. Without power or speed in any abundance Carpenter basically needs to get on base and have someone drive him in. This isn't impossible mind you, but it is a lot to ask in daily leagues when the home run or steal really win the day. But I'm not loving this position today and am willing to go with a contact guy facing Kyle Kendrick. That's a good start to having things go right.
Pedro Alvarez FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 4870
Been a long, long time since he hit a home run. Like more than two weeks kind of long time. Third base is a little weaker today which is why we have to stretch our logic in order to arrive at value. Jason Hammel's been a good pitcher, but Alvarez has that power upside on the right day. This is a gamble for sure.
Alex Rios FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 5154
It should be noted that Hector Santiago has reverse splits and has actually been better against righties this year. Granted he hasn't been good, but it's why Rios isn't a far and away top play today in the outfield. Because this guy crushes southpaws. For his career the numbers are great and this year he has a wild 215 wRC+ and 1.183 OPS. Those numbers, while a little run hot, onl back up what we already know: he gets paid on his success against this hand. Play him especially on DraftStreet where he is the bargain of the day.
Editor's note: Santiago has been pushed back. Righty Shoemaker starting. Bump down Rios.
Billy Hamilton FanDuel 4200 DraftKings 5200 DraftStreet 7284
I always want to give him a look against pitchers that put a lot of guys on base. R.A. Dickey is one such guy. If Hamilton can show a little patience today, there is a ton of upside even considering that Dickey is above league average against opponents stealing bases. The price on Hamilton has climbed, with good reason, but you can consider him especially if playing Votto and Bruce below.
Jay Bruce FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5015
Like Votto above, this is what I wrote before Dickey was scratched.
A solid pick because Dickey has struggled, for his career, with lefties. They have a .328 wOBA against him and this year has followed that trend. Plus with R.A.’s strikeouts down a bit it neutralizes Bruce’s biggest weakness.
George Springer FanDuel 4200 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 5293
A great deal on DraftStreet and solid value in some other spots, Springer faces Erik Bedard a guy disinterested in getting opposing batters out in effective ways. Springer has big time power upside we know and his price is fair across the board. Is a GPP play and I think is a little off of people's radars now that his price has climbed. Could help win you big today.
Desmond Jennings FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 5435
This is another guy I'm willing to take a look at even in a disadvantageous matchup against Keuchel because he has pretty extreme splits that favor him facing lefties. If you are looking to save some bucks here and there to fit in some higher tag guys, then give Jennings a look.
Consider Jacoby Ellsbury, Yoenis Cespedes and Carlos Beltran
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