Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftStreet for 6/21/14

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Pitchers

The pitching situation is dire at best. Apocalyptic at worst. There are some true losers going today. That's great for hitting, but because you need to actually slot players into the pitching slot, you are left with some rough choices.

Cole Hamels FanDuel 8900 DraftKings 10800 DraftStreet 20711
The Cardinals haven't shown much juice this year but that doesn't mean I'm going nuts for this pick. Even though St. Louis has been a weak hitting bunch they still aren't striking out too much coming in at only a 19.5% K rate. But they rank near the bottom of the league in wOBA against lefties. That's all I need to see on a day like today. Hamels has been his usual self striking out more than a batter an inning though the walk rate is a little elevated. I feel like he's safer on a day that's anything but. I don't think I'm paying for Wainwright.

Jake Odorizzi FanDuel 5700 DraftKings 7700 DraftStreet 14215
Going pure K upside here. Odorizzi has been mowing batters down this season, striking out almost eleven batters per nine to go with a 3:1 K:BB rate. That's more than acceptable against the Astros who come in around the bottom third of the league in team OPS against righties and strike out close to 23% of the time. It's tough to know what you're getting with Odorizzi who can look lights out one games and get yanked short of five innings in the next. Acceptable risk with this slate of pitchers though.

Josh Beckett FanDuel 8000 DraftKings 9600 DraftStreet 18885
Mostly in play because the Padres are so, so bad on offense. Plus this game's rolling in San Diego which helps some. Beckett isn't as good as his sub 3 ERA would suggest, but his xFIP is in the mid threes and he gets enough strikeouts to warrant a play against the team sitting dead last in the league in wOBA against righties.

Trevor Bauer FanDuel 5000 DraftKings 6500 DraftStreet 10863
Now we're really starting to get weird. Bauer, like Odorizzi, has a great K% which is a primary stat I'm looking at today because many of the weaker offenses in baseball have equally weak pitchers facing them. I'm going to try and nab some extra K's at reduced costs. The matchup against the Tigers is bad of course. They are a good hitting team. But Bauer is so cheap, has an xFIP of 3.70 and K's more than a batter an inning. Worth a shot today.

Consider Jacob deGrom

Milwaukee Brewers

Ryan Braun FanDuel 4500 DraftKings 6000 DraftStreet 9267
Jonathan Lucroy FanDuel 4700 DraftKings 5500 DraftStreet 8255
Mark Reynolds FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 4911
Khris Davis FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 7744
Aramis Ramirez FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 5100 DraftStreet 8415
Jean Segura FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5350
For those new to these articles, this isn't how I usually roll. But these plays are so obvious and built on the same fundamental principles that to do write up on each guy would be foolish and redundant. I'll focus the rest of the piece on who you slot in around these guys. But this is a perfect storm today. They face a bad lefty in Christian Friedrich and are a righty-heavy lineup rolling through Coors. Righties have a career .375 wOBA against Friedrich and that was when he pitched in Miami. Get as many as possibly into your lineups. Fade at your own peril.

Catchers

Devin Mesoraco FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 5199
This is actually a close call for me between Lucroy and Mesoraco today. The latter rocks lefties for his career to the tune of a 137 wRC+ and .837 OPS. He's facing J.A. Happ in Great American Ballpark, which last year actually ranked higher than Coors in park factors for righty home runs. If you are on a Brewers squeeze, Mesoraco is the way to go. Tons of upside here against a subpar pitcher in Happ.

Mike Zunino FanDuel 2300 DraftKings 3200 DraftStreet 3522
Such a hidden gem against lefties for his short career. The sample size is small but his OPS is over .800 with a wOBA of .362. This is big time Babip fueled but without much else to go on we can make some basic assumptions that Zunino prefers hitting against this hand. Jason Vargas isn't a terrible pitcher (though I want him to be) but also isn't a guy you necessarily regress to the mean against in terms of platoon splits. Zunino is a solid punt option.

Consider Brian McCannand Jarrod Saltalamacchia

First Basemen

Anthony Rizzo FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 7571
Been so solid this season with an OPS close to .900 and that increased walk rate getting me giddy about the hitter he's becoming. Vance Worley and his weird goggles are a great matchup for Rizzo in Wrigley that's about neutral in terms of power for lefties. Worley has shown flashes on K stuff but there's a reason he's a journeyman pitcher. Rizzo is coming at solid prices and has the power upside with the high basement because of the OBP.

Justin Morneau FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 8236
Going to be damned tough fading any part of this game in Coors. Peralta isn't nearly as bad as Freidrich but he's not someone we need to avoid either. He's got some home run issues, just the kind of problem you don't want to have in this ballpark. Morneau's like his new digs just fine pumping out an .876 OPS in Coors this season. Hitting behind Tulo with Cargo out doesn't hurt either.

Consider Mark Teixeira and Joe Mauer

Second Basemen

Ben Zobrist FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 5273
Brad Peacock is good at two things: striking batters out and walking the batters he doesn't strike out. One of those things is a helpful major league skill. The other is why Ben Zobrist is a solid add today. Zobrist's a patient hitter with a 10.2 BB%. He can K some but that's neutralized by Peacock's lack of command. This is the kind of play where we meet in the middle. Zobrist doesn't do anything particularly well but he does a little of everything nonetheless. His prices are dirt cheap and you can give him a look to round out a weak position.

Brian Roberts FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 4401
I'm willing to go cheap at this position today because most of the options are pretty bad and overspending would mean getting outside the Pts/$ zone. It doesn't make sense. Go cheap or go home. Roberts is just kind of around. He slaps out singles. Sometimes a fielder isn't close enough and they turn into doubles. And he can steal a base or two. Bud Norris doesn't strike out enough batters to scare me off the contact rate and this is fine to just slot in and move on to another position.

Consider Brandon Phillips

Shortstops

J.J. Hardy FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 3300 DraftStreet 4073
When is it going to happen? In our lifetime? Ever again? Will this man ever hit another home run in his career. I don't know. But I want to be around when it happens. Dude's value has always been wrapped up in the long ball and when that isn't happening it's all over red rover. But we can dream can't we? We can dream about the day he hits against a lefty and takes it yard and we all get paid on these punt prices. It takes some intestinal fortitude but you can do it.

Jordy Mercer FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 2800 DraftStreet 4928
Here's to hoping he plays against the lefty Travis Wood. For his short-ish career Mercer has a 174 wRC+ and crazy .982 OPS against lefties. Those are obviously sick numbers. And while the sample size is on the small side, it's close to 140 PA's and it stands to reason that even with basic regression he's still well above average against that hand. Is cheap across the board and really gives a lot of flexibility in your lineup if you run him out there.

Consider Troy Tulowitzki obviously, but he's always so cost prohibitive.

Third Basemen

Manny Machado FanDuel 2300 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 4535
Don't love this position today outside of Aramis above. Machado makes a decently cheap option against Vidal Nuno though it should be mentioned that Machado, outside of an early stretch last season, hasn't been that great of a player. He's a fine enough option today as I think the Orioles will put up some runs and as long as he's hitting near the top of the order the expectation is there.

David Wright FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 5515
Again, this position is weak after Ramirez today and, at least for the early slate I won't be getting too far away from the Brew Crew. Wright has been making contact lately and is possibly coming out of an early season funk that's seen his price drop to a crazy low degree. He gets nicked a little more because the Mets stink and he'll never be a huge favorite for a big game because the rest of the team won't allow it. But today against Koehler the matchup dictates a nod even on the wrong side of the split.

Consider Mike Olt

Outfielders

Jacoby Ellsbury FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 7624
The Yanks were on their way to being a great stack last night, or at least Ubaldo wanted it to be that way allowing 6 hits and 6 walks in less than 6 innings, but the Bombers wanted no part of it. They weren't interested in running all the way around the bases. But they get another crack at a mediocre pitcher in Bud Norris today. Ellsbury is still a buy low candidate considering his skill set. He's been turning it on a little lately, especially on the base paths. Expect if to continue as he reaches base more and begins (hopefully) to show a little more power playing in Yankee Stadium.

Carlos Beltran FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 5146
I think we are buying low on this guy as well. Getting over some early season injuries and dealing with a Babip about seventy points below his career averages means others think he's washed up while we just think he's been a bit unlucky. Everything else about his game looks the same except the aforementioned Babip as well as a HR/FB% also below his career average. I think some nice things are in store for the guy and these prices will look silly soon.
*As a note, literally as I was writing this I watched him hit a walk off home run.

Andrew McCutchen FanDuel 5000 DraftKings 5800 DraftStreet 7733
Getting so, so expensive everywhere except DraftStreet but it must be pointed out that he has his way with lefties over his career. Dude, for his career, has an OPS over 1K and a 175 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Needs to be considered whenever a lefty hits the mound. The cost is a little prohibitive which is what keeps him down the list.

Starling Marte FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 6636
He, like McCutchen, is always a guy I want to target when lefties are around. Though he's struggled this season his career numbers show a guy who feasts on left handed pitching. The Babip is way out of the box, but even with a healthy regression he's still a guy to target against that hand as he owns a 170 wRC+ for his career. Again, my excitement is tempered a little because there's been some luck in it, but it's high for reasons other than a fortuitous bounce or two.

Matt Joyce FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3300 DraftStreet 4970
Haven't mentioned his name much in a while. Time to get back on the horse. His price had climbed in the short term making his Pts/$ outside of where I wanted to consider him. But the salaries have dipped recently and this is a solid time to grab him against Peacock. Joyce takes a fair amount of walks, perfect against the Houston pitcher and has shown flashes of power in his career. Hasn't come about too much this season though much of it can be attributed to a HR/FB% about a third of his career average. With the rest of his batted ball profile looking the same I think you can make some basic assumptions that home runs could be coming.

Consider Adam Eaton and Jose Bautista
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