Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for ScoreStreak 6/19/14

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Total bases:

Josh Hamilton
OK, so here’s the thing: Justin Masterson sucks vs. LHB (as evidenced by RHB .381 wOBA against him), and Hamilton rakes Justin Masterson. BvP is something you’ll rarely ever see me mention, but in this case, I feel like it’s justified. Hamilton is 10/17 (a .588 batting avg) with two doubles and two HR’s vs. Masterson in his career. Hamilton has been hitting pretty well in general this year though the power has been somewhat lacking. I don’t think that’s going to be the case today. There are a handful of options ranked higher than Hamilton today, however based on the timing of the LAA/CLE rainout today, our model is projecting his stats against McAllister, but in extrapolating what the system projected him for yesterday into today, he’s a top 5 option, and for a variety of reasons, I feel like the most of the important factors align the best for Hamilton today, and therefore he’s my #1 option in the total bases category.

Miguel Cabrera
There’s no question in my mind that Miggy is the best pure hitter in baseball and from 2013 tro present has just destroyed lefties to the tune of a .448 wOBA and .301 ISO vs LHP. Today he’ll be facing off against Danny Duffy, a young and inexperienced LHP. Duffy, a former prospect back this year after Tommy John surgery, has actually been pretty good vs. RHB this year, yielding only a .301 wOBA and .86 HR/9 against them. Duffy has been pitching well lately and the Tigers as a whole have been scuffling, so for those reasons, I rank Miggy as my #2 overall option in the total bases category, despite the fact that our system has him ranked as the pretty clear-cut #1 option, so if sticking strictly to system projections is your thing, feel free to swap Miggy and Hamilton around today.

Hits

Robinson Cano
I have to start by saying that as a Yankee fan, I have a strong dislike for Robinson Cano. Watching his power all but disappear since joining the Mariners and knowing that he’s unlikely to ever win another World Series ring makes me quite happy. I could go on and on as to the reasons why, but I digress. One thing Cano can still do is hit for average, particularly vs. mediocre RHP, so for that reason, Cano is by far both my (and the system’s) #1 overall option in the hits category today. Cano is batting .331 vs. RHP this year with a 10.5% strikeout rate and a 20.4% line drive rate. So basically, he makes solid contact frequently. He gets to face off against the rookie right-hander Jesse Hahn today. Hahn has only made two big league starts so there is really isn’t a valid major league sample size, but what I do know is that when you get a savvy, professional hitter like Cano against an inexperienced RHP with a  total of less than 200 innings in the minors and majors combined, it’s pretty safe to assume that there’s a good possibility of him rapping out a couple of hits that day.

Scooter Gennett
I’m going off the board a little bit on this one, but the Scoot just rakes RHP, and by rakes, I mean a .348 batting average against them from 2013 to present. I’m not sure if U can remember more than once or twice this entire year that Gennett has faced a righty where he hasn’t gotten at least one hit. One of the major contributors to his success vs RHP has been his 25.8% LD rate. The high average has come in large part as a result of what would seem to be an unsustainable .392 batting average on balls in play, but after close to a year and a half of posting these kinds of numbers, I don’t believe it’s unsustainable, but rather that his BABIP vs. RHP is an outlier. Today he will be hitting against rookie RHP Chase Anderson, who during his time in the minors and his short stint in the majors has been really good vs. LHB, but after seeing the way Scooter has performed, I don’t think there are many RHP he can’t hit. Due batting leadoff, he’ll see an extra at bat, likely against a subpar DBacks bullpen. I feel very comfortable running Gennett out there as my #2 option in the hits category and so should you.

Strikeouts

Shelby Miller
Strikeouts is a tough one for me today, because I don’t really like any of the top options for various reasons. Though he’s ranked 8^th by our model, I’m going with Shelby Miller as my #1 option today. There really isn’t much difference between the top 10 ranked strikeout pitchers today as less than one strikeout separates #1 from #10 so I’m really not going too far off the board with the pick despite his ranking by our system. Miller went through a rough start to the season, but appears to be bouncing back well over his past couple of starts. He’s pitching deeper into games and he’s starting to look a lot more like the pitcher who struck out 8.78 batters/9 innings last year than the one who’s struck out an underwhelming 6.40/9 so far this season. Today he gets to face the hapless Phillies, who strike out 21.1% of the time, vs. RHP, and who until they beat up on Ervin Santana a little the other day, had allowed pitchers like Zack Wheeler, Jake Arrieta and Tyson Ross to strike them out seemingly at will recently. As long as the Phillies offense continues to sputter, I’ll continue to target them every time they face a pitcher with decent strikeout potential.

Andrew Heaney
Heaney is the # 9 option in our model today, but again is projected for not even one less K than the top projected option, so to me, it’s basically a pick ‘em. Heaney is making his major-league debut today against the punchless Mets. He is a top-flight LHP prospect who has struck out about a batter per inning in the minors, and quite frankly, the competition he’ll be facing today is likely inferior to some of what he’s faced in the minors. This will be the first time the Mets will be seeing him, and they strike out an obscenely high 24.7% of the time vs. LHP, most of whom they’re familiar with and have faced in the past. I honestly don’t think Heaney will have much of a problem reaching the 7 strikeouts necessary to get the points from the #2 slot in the strikeouts category.