Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for ScoreStreak 6/18/14

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Total Bases:

Ryan Braun

PED’s or no PED’s, Braun is a lefty-masher. Since 2012 (I usually use 2013 through present to get a recent but valid reference point, but since Braun missed almost all of last year due to injury and suspension, I’m going to use 2012 through present in this instance), Braun has an other-worldly .450 wOBA and .331 ISO vs LHP. Tonight he gets to face off vs. Wade Miley, who at home in particular, is a total gas can. Though he does strike out a good # of RHB at a 8.72k’s/9, he also gives up 1.45 HR/9 as well. I can definitely see Braun leaving the yard tonight.

David Ortiz

Big Papi is one of the best hitters vs. RHP in the game, as evidenced by his .413 wOBA and .283 ISO vs RHB from 2013-present. Tonight he gets the wildly-inconsistent rookie Kyle Gibson. Anyone who has read a few of my articles know that I love to pick on rookie pitchers when they’re facing well-established sluggers who hit well against their handedness because rookies just tend to make more mistake pitches given the nature of what they are. For Gibson’s part, he actually hasn’t been too bad vs. LHB, especially in the power department as he only gives up .23 HR/9 inning so far this year, however, he also strikes out less than 3 LHB/9 innings, so he allows plenty of contact, which is all that a guy like Ortiz needs to get you a couple of hits, which is all you need for the #2 spot in the total bases category.

Hits:

Victor Martinez

VMart has always been a professional hitter, and this year is no exception. He’s batting .306 vs. RHP this year,  and based on his .270 BABIP, has actually been a little bit unlucky vs. them so far this year. He strikes out a very low 9.2% of the time and has a respectable 19.4% line drive rate vs RHP this year. Today he’ll be hitting against batting practice pitcher Jeremy Guthrie. Though Guthrie has actually been pretty decent vs. LHB this season, allowing a batting average against of only .264, he’s done so based on an artificially low .257 BABIP. As well as VMART has been seeing the ball this year, and the fact that Guthrie is just Guthrie, I don’t see VMART having any problem getting a couple of hits vs. him today.

Jose Altuve

Tattoo (my nickname for Altuve, and if you’re old enough to remember the show “Fantasy Island” you’ll understand, if not, google it and I'm sure you'll get it) has been absolutely raking LHP this year to the tune of a .413 batting average. Though his line drive rate of 18.8% is about average it is somewhat mitigated by his extremely low 7.7% strikeout rate, along with the fact that he has the speed to leg out ground balls without too much of a problem. Today he’ll be facing Gio Gonzalez, who while widely considered a pretty good pitcher, has control problems and will be starting his first game since coming off the DL. Gonzalez surprisingly hasn’t been too bad vs. RHB this year, giving up only a .235 batting average against and strikes out a hefty 9.28/9 innings, so while this isn’t an ideal matchup, given how well Altuve has been hitting (especially vs. LHP) lately, I have every confidence that he’ll be able to rap out at least one hit today,

Strikeouts:

Felix Hernandez

This was the easiest pick for me today. Hernandez is the clear-cut #1 option in the strikeouts category today. Felix is averaging a near-elite 9.48 K/p, and the Padres are striking out at a rate of 22.4% vs. RHP and are just plain bad. As if you need any more convincing, let me take you back two weeks ago when Tanner Roark (who clearly is no Felix Hernandez) faced the Padres in Petco. His final strikeout line was 11k’s in 8 innings. Add two to three more K’s to his total and I think that’s the number of K’s you’re looking at from Felix tonight.

Jake Arrieta

I’m going a little off the board here based on our system’s projections (Arrieta is ranked 10^th overall), but honestly, I just disagree with the ranking in this instance. Arrieta has been pitching great lately and his peripherals support it. Though it’s admittedly a small sample size (only 43 IP, or about half of what most starting pitchers have thrown so far this year), Arrieta is averaging 9.21 K’s/9. Today he’s facing the Marlins, who strike out the most of any team in MLB vs. RHP at 23.8%. To me, it just makes sense to target a high strikeout pitcher vs. a very strikeout prone team, so I’ll be rolling Arrieta out there with confidence today as my #2 option in the strikeout category.