Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftStreet for 6/18/14

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Pitchers

Late games

Felix Hernandez FanDuel 11200 DraftKings 12500 DraftStreet 26705
I don't love the expensive options today, but I know that many people are going to be playing big money pitchers, and if you do, I think it's gotta be Felix. Here's the thing - the Padres are the most pathetic run scoring team in the league, and Felix is almost a lock to shut them down with the usual accompaniment of King Felix Ks. The only ding I give him here is that they are facing a pretty decent pitcher in his own right - Andrew Cashner - and I could easily see Felix pitching 7 strong and not getting a W. The price is pretty high for such a risk, but give me King Felix's upside for the night slate.

Chase Whitley FanDuel 5000 DraftKings 6800 DraftStreet 11497
This is going to seem like a strange pick after you read the rest of this column and I recommend some Blue Jays hitters, but let me give you a peek inside this big brain of mine. Chase Whitley has demonstrated intense control this year, and a pretty good strike out rate to go with it. Does this pitch around the plate approach lend itself to the occasional blow up? It can, but the complete lack of walks actually limits a lot of Whitley's damage to solo homers. He'll make the Jays put it in play, and he could easily walk away with a very high upside performance. I'm STILL hating Mark Buehrle, who no longer really does anything well, and I think Whitley is well poised for a win. This isn't a pick without risk, but it could pay off on a day where a lot of the more expensive options don't have great match ups.

Early Games
Lance Lynn FanDuel 7700 DraftKings 8500 DraftStreet 16986
For the early games, Lance Lynn is my top choice. The hapless Mets have a few guys that can hit right handers, but for the most part they prefer lefties, and they sure have a lot of guys that know how to strike out. Lynn has as much upside as anyone in the early games, and I like saving on him, instead of going with..

Chris Sale FanDuel 10100 DraftKings 11900 DraftStreet 24824
Here's the weird thing about Sale - he's got easily the most upside in the early slate, he is bound to strike a bunch of guys out... but the Giants actually have a handful of guys that can hit left handed pitching, and Chicago isn't the greatest place to pitch. Huge upside here, but you might be investing a lot of money in a performance where Sale gives up 3 ER and only pitches through the 6th. Buyer beware, but this could be a great one.

Also considered: Sonny Gray

 

Catchers

 
Late Games
Yan Gomes FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 4084
Honestly? I've got little and less to say about the catcher position today. It's a mess, especially in the evening games. It's with this disclaimer that I present to you Yan Gomes - over the course of his career he's amassed an impressive 123 wRC+ against left handed pitching, and is very capable of a big game. CJ Wilson isn't the ideal match up, but no decent catcher has a good match up today, so here you go.

Hank Conger FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 4900
Yup, I just recommended Hank Conger. What can I say about this? The best I can do is that Masterson is a mess facing left handed batters, and the switch hitting Conger could theoretically take advantage of Masterson's sidewinding approach. I definitely prefer Gomes, but if Conger gets the start, he could be a solid play for a low price at a joke of a position.

Early Games
A.J. Pierzynski FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 4698
On a day that's terrible for catchers, I love Pierzynski for the early games. Kyle Gibson is just so far from being a major league pitcher at this point in his career, and his 38 Ks against 25 BBs in 76 IP is just not going to get it done against the Red Sox. Has the makings of an early outing, and Pierzynski should get his licks in and possibly avoid facing a LOOGY if the game is in blow out mode.

Buster Posey FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 5460
Chris Sale is insanely good, so this is strictly an upside play. Posey does hold a 1k OPS against left handed pitching, and Sale does give up runs occasionally. And Catcher really sucks today, right? Right!?

Also considered: Victor Martinez

 

First Basemen

Late Games
Mark Teixeira FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 7393
While he's not the guy he was when he signed his monster contract, Teixeira is still a fine hitter against left handed pitching, and for the ten millionth time, I am NOT SOLD ON MARK BUEHRLE! He can keep trying to infuriate me all he wants (it's working), but I'm going to pick guys against him until he actually does something besides luckily have his hit balls land in people's gloves.

Mark Reynolds FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 4045
Our projection system actually has loved Reynolds for a lot of the year, and he is as capable of a monster game at anyone at the position. The reason for selecting him here isn't what you think - Reynolds is nearly platoon neutral - but Miley's propensity to give up the long ball and the great park for home run hitting has our system sold on him.

Joey Votto FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 7298
Votto is a force against right handed pitching, and Volquez just hasn't panned out into the ace some thought he'd be. Votto is a very safe play due to his high BABIP and walk rate, and the upside is there too when you consider his ability to drive the ball for extra base hits and RBI. Super solid play.

Early Games
Freddie Freeman FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 0
Freeman is a righty killer, and Robert "Don't call me Fausto, because that whole thing was a little embarrassing" Hernandez isn't going to spook him in the least. He holds a 144 wRC+ against righties for his career, and he'll make the most of this outing, you can be sure.

David Ortiz FanDuel 3900 DraftKings 4900 DraftStreet 7171
Read Pierzynski's line, and clone it here. Not a whole lot else to say, but a 4 home run game seems inevitable.

Also considered: Anthony Rizzo

 

Second Basemen

Late Games
Brandon Phillips FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5115
It's with no particular enthusiasm that I present Brandon Phillips to you today. 2nd base is just that bad. In truth, our system is a huge non-believer in Volquez, whose 53 Ks in 79 innings is already bad, and when you figure he has almost half that many walks, it's even worse. I wouldn't be pumped to get Phillips in there or anything, but you could do a lot worse when you consider that if he does get on base, the big lefties around him could drive him in.

Danny Espinosa FanDuel 2300 DraftKings 3000 DraftStreet 3532
So this is one of those bargain plays that could absolutely be on the list of winning teams' lineups. Espinosa is a dirt cheap player who gets his at bats (for some reason), and is actually capable of a big game with his close-his-eyes-and-swing-his-hardest approach. He is considerably worse against right handed pitching, but this game will be an incredible test of two forces of nature. Espinosa will be starring as the unstoppable force who can strike out against anyone, and Scott Feldman will take the role of the immovable object that can't strike anyone out. Who will prevail?

Early Games
Ben Zobrist FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 5530
Our projection system is sticking with Zobrist, and isn't impressed with the young Gausman. Zobrist is great against right handed pitching, and there isn't a whole let else to say about this.

Dustin Pedroia FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 5904
Just another Red Sock (what's the singular of a made up plural word? Idk) for today's inevitable Crush Kyle Gibson Stack. No real big analysis here - Pedroia prefers lefties, but he prefers horrid pitchers more. That's where this ranking comes from.

Also considered: Tommy La Stella

Shortstops

Late Games
Derek Jeter FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 4731
As Jeter has shown recently, he's absolutely capable of piling on a huge counting stat game. A little known secret of Jeter's career is that he's actually a fairly severe platoon split guy, absolutely abusing left handed pitching while being merely good against right handers. In this game he faces Mark Buehrle, who will surrender lots of contact. If the Captain can't find a few holes and give himself the opportunity for the commensurate counting stats, I'll be very disappointed.

Hanley Ramirez FanDuel 4300 DraftKings 5100 DraftStreet 8476
Clearly more upside than Jetes, but you're paying for it. Jorge De La Rosa looks absolutely worn out this season, and Hanley can put up a huge fantasy game in a number of different ways. The righty/lefty thing is a plus, but what this mostly comes down to the ability of the two players involved. One of them is historically great, the other is terrible. We're choosing the great guy.
Note from one of our awesome readers: Hanley was banged up last night, and is currently considered day to day with a finger contusion. Check his status and deploy him cautiously.

Also considered: Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins

Early Games
Jed Lowrie FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 5295
Squaring off against right handers like Nick Tepesch is basically the whole reason Lowrie is considered a good shortstop. He's one of the few A's that prefers right handed pitching, but he should be all over Tepesch, and his upside will depend on his teammates getting on base in front of or behind him.

It's pretty much a poo-poo platter of lousy matchups after this.. I guess you could go Wilmer Flores? Eduardo Nunez? Blech.

 

Third Basemen

Late Games
Aramis Ramirez FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 6091
Sort of blue balls writing about this again, but in case you missed it, I recommended this exact match up yesterday. I love A-Ram against Miley specifically because of Miley's ability to surrender the long ball, and Aramis' just-make-contact approach could absolutely lead to some extra base hits, or more.

Pedro Alvarez FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 5572
This is a huge upside play, but the downside risk is always there with Sr. Alvarez. He has torched right handed pitching and been completely abysmal vs. lefties over the course of his career, and this will probably be what stops him from realizing his superstar potential. But who cares? In this game he squares off against Simon - a converted right handed reliever who isn't the type of righty that should share you off of Pedro.

Early Games
Ryan Zimmerman FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 6466
Zimmerman hasn't shown anyone much of anything this year, but the system just loves him to turn this thing around against Scott Feldman. It's easy to get pulled into the Siren's Song of year-to-date performance, but guys having down years can still put up numbers against guys who strike no one whatsoever out. It may not be a huge upside play, but there's plenty of room for a nice game here.

Evan Longoria FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 5971
The early games feature shortstops who haven't lived up to their potential this year, but in a shallow slate like this you sometimes have to take chances. I love the way Longoria made some hard contact in the last few games, and think his price will return to 2nd tier levels before the season's end. It's an opportunity to buy Longoria in a spot where he could produce quality numbers against an inexperienced starter.

 

Outfielders

Ryan Braun FanDuel 4800 DraftKings 5600 DraftStreet 8787
This is assuming Miley starts today. If so, Braun rates out at the top of the OFs in term of just raw expected points. You will of course need to pay for him, but this Braun we are talking about. Chase Field gives a boost to power to righties and Braun slaughters lefties in a big way. His OPS over the last year in more than a thousand against righties and the Braun has shown no ill effects to ignoring the juice. A Brewer stack had everyone salivating last night until Miley got scratched. If the lefty is on the mound tonight you'll see a ton of Brew Crew bros up and down people's lineups.

Jose Bautista FanDuel 4400 DraftKings 5300 DraftStreet 8764

Playing in Yankee Stadium is going to give everyone a bump in power. The park factors on that little stadium in the Bronx make it to that both righties and lefties can expect a little boost. Bautista even on the wrong side of the split looks like a great play against Chase Whitley. Whitley is a control guy, offering almost no walks, but also not blowing hitters away. The xFIP is close to four and Bautista is more than serviceable against righties. Doesn't get that crazy bump from facing a southpaw, but the prices are completely manageable across the industry. And oh that stadium.

Kole Calhoun FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 6252


Josh Hamilton FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 6800

I've said this before but every five days it's worth repeating. Just Masterson is a Hall of Famer against righties. Unfortunately, some players have learned to hit from the other side of the plate and that's a problem for the guy. A big problem. This season lefties are rocking a .382 wOBA against the guy. This is as bad a number as you'll see from pretty much any pitcher with a consistent major league gig. But he blows righties away. The Halos don't have too many lefties in their lineup, but these two guys who own righties on their own will be hitting in the first 4-5 spots in the order. They have big upside on Masterson's deficiency alone.

Jay Bruce FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 6464

Remains underpriced mostly because the K rate is out of the box and the ISO has dropped significantly. Some if it is because of an increased GB%, but I still am not convinced there is something completely wrong with the guy. The walks are up which is a good sign and I still think we are buying at a discount on Bruce. Edinson Volquez isn't a big strikeout guy which should decrease Bruce's chances at that some. He also isn't a very good pitcher with an xFIP in the fours. I'm still liking the power upside here even in a park that suppresses home runs some.

Melky Cabrera FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 6198

Melky pairs well with Bautista today. He is on the better side of the split and is a much better hitter against righties with an OPS about 80 points higher against that hand over the last year. Like Bautista, Melky has the benefit of playing in one of the best hitter's parks in baseball with the short porch to left. Chase Whitley isn't a pitcher to avoid by any means the Blue Jays as a whole make an attractive team to stack.

Alfonso Soriano FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 3981

He can only be considered against and even then it's a bit dicey. But this year he's still proven he can hit southpaws carrying a 109 wRC+ over the course of the season. Soriano's .784 OPS is fine considering he's coming in at punt prices across the industry. And Mark Buehrle's xFIP is a full two runs higher than his ERA. Soriano is an upside play that can help you fit some bigger salaries in other spots.

Strongly consider Khris Davis, Scott Van Slyke, and Coco Crisp

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