Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftStreet for 6/17/14

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Pitchers

Yu Darvish FanDuel 11800 DraftKings 12200 DraftStreet 24795
Here's the bottom line: no pitcher on a given night has as much upside as Yu Darvish. The K/9 is ridiculous, and he's pitching deep into games as well. Double digit Ks in 4 of his last 6 games, and wins in 6 of his last 7. Oakland is also probably the best pitcher's park that he'll pitch in over that stretch as well. You're paying here, of course, but sometimes you have to pay for insane upside like this.

Johnny Cueto FanDuel 10300 DraftKings 10900 DraftStreet 22320
I've never been much of a Cueto believer, but the proof is in the pudding this year. The K rate has reached the level that everyone thought it could get to, and the control he has flashed in the past hasn't gone anywhere. The big selling point in this match-up is Cueto's opposition - Brandon Cumpton hasn't done anything worth celebrating this year, and even the struggling Reds should be able to give Cueto the run support he needs.

Jeff Samardzija FanDuel 7600 DraftKings 8700 DraftStreet 18263
If you want high-priced upside without having to pay that premium, Jeff Samardzija is your guy. The Marlins strike out more than any other team in the league, and Miami is a nice place to pitch. He's definitely capable of the odd blow-up, but if you're going straight bang for your buck, Samardzija is a very attractive play tonight.

Also considered: Wade Miley, Matt Cain, Ervin Santana

 

Catcher

Buster Posey FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 6916
Posey has put up a 1k OPS against left handers over the course of his career, and that includes ones that can actually pitch. John Danks is not one of those. With 58 Ks against 32 BBs in 82 IP, Danks' pedestrian ERA is actually a function of good luck, not bad. And Posey doesn't get to hit in parks this good that often - he's a terrific play today.

Yadier Molina FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 4503
It's not a huge upside play, but Molina has run terribly bad this year when it comes to producing counting stats. Molina can hit left handed pitchers, and I think the Cardinals will put up a decent game against Niese and the Mets, giving Molina a chance to turn that bad luck around.

Brian McCann FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 5697
A.J. Pierzynski FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 4043
Similar plays, for me - guys with strong platoon splits facing pitchers of the opposite handedness in good hitters parks. McCann is facing a worse pitcher, but Pierzynski has flashed more upside recently. I far prefer the top guys, but if you want to go a little cheaper, I don't mind these two.

Consider Jonathon Lucroy though he's pricey

 

First Basemen

Mark Teixeira FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6434
I'm definitely digging a Yankees stack today. Marcus Stroman has flashed nice peripherals so far in his brief tenure as a starter, but our projection system is going to need to see a lot more before handing him any trophy. Teixeira frequently bats in a position to knock guys in, and he should have the opportunity to do this quite a bit vs. Stroman and the Blue Jays.

Joey Votto FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 7482
I love Votto because he can help you in so many ways - he gets on base, he can hit for power, and while he crushes righties, he is still more than capable of hitting those late inning LOOGYs. He's squaring off against one Brandon Cumpton, who has only even had marginal success in the minor leagues, much less the majors.

Adrian Gonzalez FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 6915
Adrian Gonzalez has been very consistent recently, not posting any monsters, but not posting any goose-eggs, either. His ability to hit right handed pitching is well documented (a 141 wRC+ against them for his career), and Jhoulys Chacin isn't going to scare him with his 29/21 K/BB ratio. Important to know about Gonzalez is his flukish low BABIP this year - a .272 mark as compared to his .320 career levels. Once that evens out, Gonzalez's price will climb, and I'll be buying him well in advance of that.

Also considered: Mark Reynolds, Freddie Freeman, Adan Dunn

 

Second Basemen

Anthony Rendon FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 5624
While Dallas Keuchel has put up some decent stats this year, Anthony Rendon has, too. Rendon, like a lot of young hitters, has display a dramatic platoon split - his 141 wRC+ against left handed pitchers has essentially propped up his whole line - so while you can't play him against righties, he becomes nearly a must play at these prices against left handed pitching.

Jason Kipnis FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 7108
Batting amid the potent Cleveland offense has given Kipnis a lot of opportunity to accumulate counting stats recently, and he's obliged. The young Indians' second baseman is another dramatic platoon split guy, though righties are his handedness of preference. Our projection system is lukewarm on Shoemaker at best, and thinks the Indians will make short work of him and the Angels in this contest.

Ben Zobrist FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 5472
It'd be fair to call this an off year for Zobrist, but he is still more than capable of putting up a big game - especially for a second baseman. Miguel Gonzalez has been very wild this year (3.24 BB/9) and is a fly ball pitcher, which plays right into Zobrist's two biggest strengths.

Also considered: Howie Kendrick, Chase Utley, Dustin Pedroia

 

Shortstops

Asdrubal Cabrera FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 5915
Cabrera is as platoon neutral as it gets, and this is more of a condemnation of our projection system of Matt Shoemaker than anything else. It thinks the Indians are going to trash him, and that Cabrera will be right at the center of it.

Starlin Castro FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 6752
I've been on record as liking Castro a ton recently, and it's been paying off. It hasn't been super flashy or anything, but Castro has strung together nearly an .800 OPS, and he's having his best offensive season as a major leaguer. And you're getting him for less than $3,000 (on FD). Our system doesn't think many guys should spook you when it comes to picking Castro, and DeSclafani of the Marlins isn't on that short list.

Elvis Andrus FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5827
It's always tempting to think of slap-hitting guys like Andrus as low upside, but he's really produced for his owners recently, largely due to where he bats in the lineup. He can get on base, he can steal bases, and score runs. He slight prefers left handed pitching (.318 wOBA vs. them as opposed to .304 vs righties), so there could be more upside here than it seems at first blush.

Also considered: Jean Segura, Jimmy Rollins

 

Third Basemen

Aramis Ramirez FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 6484
Ramirez is a fun guy to root for when it comes to upside because so many of his PAs result in a ball being put in play. With a K+BB% of less than 16%, Aramis winds up having a ton of upside on any given night just due to what happens when his bat connects with the ball. He also boasts a 137 wRC+ against left handed pitching for his career, and Wade Miley is definitely known for his ability to surrender the long ball. Keep your eyes on Brewers in this contest.

Manny Machado FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 4475
The current incarnation of Erik Bedard is a weird one - he doesn't strike that many guys out, he walks a ton of guys, and gives up a ton of hits. But the ERA has been decent. I'm not sweating that in Machado's case - Baltimore's young 3b has been nothing to write home about this year, but that's looking awfully BABIP fueled (a .266 number this year vs. .306 career levels). Could be a nice bounceback game for him.

Carlos Santana FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 6240
Santana prefers left handed pitching, but he's more than capable of mashing righties as well, as his 121 wRC+ against them will attest. Matt Shoemaker can strike guys out and all, but he posted a 4.65 FIP his last two years in the minors. Tons of upside in this play - perhaps even more than the two guys above him.

Also considered: Yangervis Solarte, David Wright, Evan Longoria

 

Outfielders

Hunter Pence FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 7531
Pence has been on a tear recently, and the price on FanDuel looks like a typo to be sure. Pence's high effort swing lends itself to potential big games - he has an historically high BABIP, and can hit home runs as well. In this game, he gets to face a terrible left handed pitcher in a terrific hitter's park. He's the play of the day, and it isn't even close.

Jayson Werth FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 6047
Match ups like these are why Werth is still in the majors. Also his eleventy-billion dollar contract. But mostly his ability to hit left handed pitching. He might not finish the year batting .404 against them the way he has so far, but his career wRC+ of 148 seems very much in reach. Lots of opportunity for him in this game.

Jacoby Ellsbury FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 7004
It hasn't come through in the picks because of my own personal skepticism, but our projection system is pretty sure the Yankees are going to make quick work of Stroman and the Blue Jays. Ellsbury is frankly a guy with incredible upside on any given night, and he can put up numbers in many different ways. I'll take him any time he's facing a right hander of Stroman's caliber.

Ryan Braun FanDuel 4300 DraftKings 5600 DraftStreet 7946
So he's not exactly your grand-father's Ryan Braun - the .835 OPS this year leaves him looking pretty pedestrian compared to the rest of his career. But Braun doesn't need to be in GODMODE to collect against league average left handed pitchers. While he might not be capable of the utterly ludicrous 177 wRC+ he's posted against lefties over his career, even a decent regression from that makes him a very nice play against left handed pitching.

Austin Jackson FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5008
The last time I did the picks, I speculated that Yordano Ventura might have something going on. The Ks haven't been there recently, and he's getting by behind his defense more than his own electric stuff. His 3 K performance did nothing to change my mind. Austin Jackson actually prefers hitting right handed pitching, and I think he'll have plenty of RBI opportunities in this game.

Brett Gardner FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 5867
Pretty much the same idea here as with Ellsbury - the system thinks the Yankees are going to thump Stroman, and the speedy lefties are going to have their way in the batter's box and on the base paths.

Josh Hamilton FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 7241
Hamilton's an interesting case this year. He's been producing plenty of daily fantasy baseball value, but hasn't been hitting any home runs. He's been doing everything else, though - knocking guys in, getting plenty of hits, and even stealing bases. He's got a career .383 wOBA against right handers, and our projection system is waiting for Josh Tomlin to pumpkin out. Could be a huge night.

Also considered: Carlos Beltran, Desmond Jennings, Angel Pagan, Khris Davis, Justin Upton, Grady Sizemore, Matt Holliday.

 

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